OUR TAKE: On the Paul McNeil breakout and NC State’s 85-73 win over Wake Forest

It only took 4 1/2 months, but NC State finally got their first big upset of the season, taking out Wake Forest 85-73 on Saturday.

This looked like a different team, because they were a different team. The reason for that was freshman Paul McNeil, who got his first start of the season, finishing with a season high 24 points, in a season high 28 minutes, going 8-13 from the floor and 4-7 from long range. He added 4 boards and 3 assists.

Before we get into the McNeil situation, let’s set the stage.

Wake Forest came in at 11-4, 3rd place in the ACC, while NC State had lost 12 of their past 14 games. NC State fans were pretty tuned out and not expecting much when they woke up Saturday morning.

The real reason NC State fans had tuned out wasn’t because of the team’s record, I think it was mostly because the team wasn’t trying anything new, and it was sucking the ‘hope’ form the program. After over 4 months of play, it was very clear that the MOC, Hill, Taylor, Styles, Middlebrooks lineup wasn’t going to get it done, however this group continued starting every game and continued to see the most playing time.

That’s why it was such a shock when freshman Paul McNeil was announced in the starting lineup vs. Wake Forest.

McNeil was NC State’s top recruit this past off-season. He was the guy who many believed had to have a big season for NC State to be competitive. He held the North Carolina record for most points in a single high school game (71), and was on an NC State team whose roster had very little in terms of shooting and scoring.

But McNeil wasn’t getting minutes, after playing 11 in the season opener, he didn’t hit double-digit minutes until December 22nd.

Now, I’ll be honest. Watching McNeil early on, it was very clear that he was lost on defense. He had an itchy trigger finger on offense and he wasn’t used to the speed and physicality of the ACC. But it was very clear that he had a skill set that no one else on this team had. He was a long, decently athletic 6’5 guard who as recruited to be a prolific scorer.

Here is what I said about McNeil in my preseason preview…

As you can see, I couldn’t even envision a scenario here McNeil was not playing some sort of role for this basketball team. And I’m not someone who puts a ton of trust into college freshmen, but based on this roster makeup, it seemed clear that Paul McNeil would have to be a factor if this team was going to compete. They would have to deal with some defensive hiccups in exchange for what he brought on the offensive end.

So I was pretty shocked and frustrated to see McNeil not be thrown into the fire earlier in the year. Keatts as asked about this in the postgame presser and here is what he had to say…

“You know, he’s grown, man. God, if you would have seen him the first month or two, man, what a talented high school scorer, but, you know, couldn’t guard anybody.

Didn’t have any interest in guarding anybody. Really wasn’t making his shots. Wasn’t in shape.

Really loved college basketball. Really loved college life at NC State. I had to bring him in at one point.

I was like, ‘man, are you partying every night?’ But that’s what freshmen do. But the maturity…he’s gotten better, he’s grown and he’s doing it through practice. All three of our freshmen, they’ve show up every day for about an hour before practice and get a lot of shots in, and are staying consistent.

Obviously it’s starting to pay off for him. So I’m happy for him. I trusted him, obviously, the way he was playing, and I thought he did a good job finishing the game.”

So let’s read into this to try to understand the situation. 

Keatts was asked about keeping McNeil on the floor late in the game and what it says about Keaetts trusting him on the defensive end as much as his ability to score.

His answer insinuates, in my opinion, that McNeil simply wasn’t ready defensively and now he is. But I guess that makes me wonder why he played 11 minutes in the season opener only to play 16 total minutes over the next 10 games and why he’s only averaged 6 minutes per game over the entire season.

I get it, when he got his 1 or 2 minutes per game, early on, he didn’t look great. But wasn’t it obvious that he needed to be thrown into the fire more often, for longer stretches, to settle in and figure it out?

And even if it wasn’t apparent for the first 2 months, wasn’t it obvious a few weeks ago when he dropped 8 points in 15 minutes vs SMU (his first extended ACC action). Or how about when he dropped 12 points in 14 minutes vs. Louisville on Feb 12th? Why did he only play 1 minute the next time out vs Boston College?

Look, I’m so happy NC State won. I’m so happy Paul McNeil finally broke out. But I’m asking the same question you all are thinking.

What took so long? Why did we have to sacrifice 2/3 of the season before we started to try shuffling the lineups in a meaningful way? Why does this season feel like last season, where almost the entire regular season is lost and things are finally being figured out 27 games in.

If Paul McNeil was such a problem early in the season, why did he get 11 minutes in the opener? And if he’s been capable of this type of offensive output, why hasn’t he been a more consistent part of the rotation?

The reason this article isn’t a full-on rah-rah celebration is because it’s baffling that a freshman guard, in his first extended minutes (20+), goes off for 24 points and wins you the basketball game. It’s that another scorer on the floor unlocks Mike O’Connell, who finished with 13 assists in this one. And that, like most people believed, the talent is on this roster to compete in the ACC.

All the excitement is just blanketed by frustration that we are 4-12 in the ACC and it looks like it didn’t have to be that way. It’s blanked by the fact that this type of thing seems to be a pattern with this staff. It’s concerning because we want to get excited and we want to believe, but we’re tentative because this keeps happening. People had been screaming for Keatts to shake things up in a big way, and when he did, things suddenly clicked. But it’s last February and at this point it’s really too late.

How are we supposed to feel?

There will be some who hate this take and believe I should just shut up and be thankful for the win. Be a good fan and celebrate, forget the frustrations and the 12 losses for now.

But in another context, that would be considered victim blaming and this relationship would be labeled as abusive.

So, don’t blame me for being excited, and hopeful while still feeling frustrated, mad, and exhausted. I won’t blame you.

Ok, now that I got that out of my system, let’s look at the positives….

What a freaking performance!

The defense was great, and it was great with Paul McNeil on the floor. I think what McNeil lacks in awareness and experience defensively, he makes up with in size. We’ve been focused on NC State’s shooting, their offense, and at times their defense, but one big area that was killing the Pack was their size.

They were so small, all the time, and even at times yesterday, when McNeil or Styles were out, guys were just shooting over us and getting easy buckets. There were a few times when we played great defense, only to have them get a little too deep and hit a contested midrange jumper over top of a smaller defender.

If NC State is going to play small at the 4, they need to play big at the 3. I pointed that out a couple of weeks ago when we looked at the starting lineups of all Top-15 teams. Make sure you read that here. The only teams that are playing small ball and having Top-15 success were teams that either shot the ball at an elite clip, or ones that played big across the board.

Marcus Hill is listed at 6’4 but I don’t think he’s a legit 6’4 and Paul McNeil, listed at 6’5, plays a lot bigger thanks to his length. I think that is a factor in of itself. But the bigger change is the floor spacing.

With McNeil hitting shots and Styles hitting shots, you are now able to spread the floor. Now your offense looks more like an offense and Mike O’Connell become much more valuable to your team. Paul McNeil unlocks a lot of things for this team, and it just took some experimenting and commitment to change to find that out.

So what now?

If we don’t see a full-on commitment to Paul McNeil, I think people’s heads will explode.

NC State is now 4-12 in the ACC. 15 teams make the ACC Tournament his year, and Syracuse and Cal are tied for the 15th spot at 5-11.

NC State is tied with BC at 4-12 but the Pack owns the tie-breaker.

State plays Syracuse at Syracuse on Wednesday. This is a must-win. If they win, they tie Syracuse at 5-12, but State would have that tie-breaker too.

Cal has SMU next, so if they lose that one, then State and Cal would be tied as well, but Cal would own that tie-breaker.

There are too many scenarios to go over here, with 4 games left. However, it’s clear that NC State needs a winning streak to get back into the Top 15 in the ACC and make the conference tournament.

I think the interesting thing to consider is that NC State could have 6 more wins in conference with just a small shift. Many of their losses have been one or two possession games. With McNeil giving you such a dominant performance vs. Wake, you have to wonder how many of those close games go to the Pack if he was getting more minutes. NC State COULD be 8-8 right now. That would put them 8th in the ACC, and a few wins away from the NCAA Bubble.

So it’s not hard to imagine NC State picking up steam and winning out. Their best opponent left is Pitt, who has lost 9 of their last 13 games.

I guess we’ll have to see if McNeil can keep up the success and if Keatts can continue to give him the minutes necessary to do so.