Xs & Os: Will Wade has assembled a dream team of offensive minds, and they’re laying the groundwork to win a championship

Remember this offseason, when the narrative was that “the defense is going to be elite under Will Wade, but they might not have the horses on offense to become a true contender?”

Seems silly now that we’re 3 games in and the offense looks like a well-oiled machine.

In fact, this team is now in the record books for scoring the 3rd most points over the first 3 games in a season for NC State, with 318.
(the ’90-91 ‘Fire & Ice’ team scored 374 &the 75-76 “Kenny Carr’ team scored 320).

Before you write this off as a fluke and mention the fact that NC State has played nobody of significance, take a second to realize that UAB is probably the best team they’ve played in the first 3 games of a season since 2014, when they took on Cincinnati in the 2nd game of the season (the 3rd year of the Gottfried era).

So how are they doing this? Is there a method to the madness?

If you’ve paid attention since Wade was hired, you probably know the answer. There is an obvious method to what you’re seeing, and it’s a combination of Wade’s desired style of play, mixed with a bunch of emerging basketball minds on his staff who have found success with some outside-the-box philosophies.

First, let’s talk about the roster, because even with the best theories or sets, you still need playmakers and shot makers.

This roster seems to have all the right pieces and seems to have prioritized all of the right data. Andrew Slater, gets a lot of that credit, as he should, but one overlooked piece to the puzzle is Assistant GM Patrick Stacy.

He’s the brains behind ‘Jam Basketball Intelligence‘ a scouting/analytics service that saw massive success in college basketball, especially over the past few years. His clients were #1 and #2 overall in win % improvement from ’23 to ’24 (McNeese and Green Bay). Last year, they had 3 in the top 10 for the largest year-over-year increase in KenPom rank (McNeese, Green Bay, Loyola). They were also working with Houston, which was ranked the best defense in the country.

Proud scouting/analytics partner to the best defense in the country! @UHCougarMBK
Out Prepare. Outperform. #JamFam https://t.co/qh1NrozdVX

— Jam Basketball Intelligence (@JBItweets) January 25, 2024

Stacy is a secret weapon and someone who doesn’t get much publicity, but should be protected at all costs. This isn’t just your normal numbers guy; this is a guy who has worked in Major League Baseball analytics and was the analytics manager for Loyola when they went on their Cinderella run to the Final Four.

But Wade and Stacy’s connections started when they were introduced by another great offensive mind, Adam Howard (a client of Stacy’s, who is now an assistant under Wade here at NC State). Howard was running the offense at Nebraska prior to this role, and Nebraska, during Howard’s tenure, was very, very good.

In 2023-24, Nebraska went 23-11, the second-highest win total in school history, and reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014. [lost to Texas A&M in the first round] The Huskers, who were picked 12th in the preseason, tied for third in the Big Ten, marking the program’s best conference finish in more than 30 years. Nebraska averaged 77.7 points per game, a total which was the program’s highest average since 1995-96, while leading the Big Ten with 9.5 3-pointers per game. NU’s season was highlighted by a pair of top-10 wins, including an 88-72 win over No. 1 Purdue, which was NU’s first win over a No. 1 team since 1982.

After meeting Wade, he and Stacy started working together at McNeese State, turning them into the success story you saw last season, but behind the scenes, they were plotting the next move and how they’d structure things at a University with more resources and a higher ceiling. That University, fortunately for us, was NC State.

But it’s not just Stacy and his analytics, it’s also the addition of Adam Howard, who I mentioned was proving his chops at Nebraska prior to taking the assistant’s role here at State. Howard is an understudy of Fred Hoiberg, who coached the Chicago Bulls for two seasons before taking the lead job at Nebraska in 2019. He is the guy who Will Wade is trusting with the offensive game plan.

There was a nice piece about Howard and his role on Backing The Pack a few days ago that I’d advise you check out.

Combined, these guys have put together a roster and a game plan that has hit the ground running.

Some of the basics of that system are the prioritization of positions. Will Wade has been transparent about his focus on point guard, shooting guard, and power forward positions. They have also used data to target players who have come from specific conferences that have had more success when transferring to the ACC. They have models that take every player in the country and sort them into roles, pinpointing the roles Wade has had the most success with, and they fit within the system being implemented at NC State.

One example that played out behind the scenes this offseason was when NC State needed to decide to take either PJ Haggerty (Memphis 2-guard who averaged 22ppg) or Darrion Williams (Texas Tech wing who averaged 15 points and 5.5 rebounds per game.)

Haggerty was seen as a likely lock if NC State made the right offer. At the time, with Paul McNeil Jr an unknown due to his lack of playing time last season, and Alyn Breed/Matt Able as the only other options at the 2 (Breed coming off injury / Able a freshman)

Haggerty, to outsiders, seemed like the no-brainer to give the Pack an elite scoring option. However, Patrick Stacy’s analytics model had Williams as more valuable to what NC State wanted to do. In fact, we’re told it had him graded out as the best player in college basketball last season. So the decision to prioritize Williams was made (and that is looking like the right move now that Paul McNeil Jr is emerging as a potential All-ACC caliber player at the 2), and Williams is absolutely dominating, leading the team in scoring at 21.7, tied for the lead in assists 4.7, and second on the team in rebounds at 6 per game.

As for how it’s playing for the rest of the team?

This group working behind the curtain has made the offseason questions about offense look silly with some insane outputs.

This team has 4 guys shooting over 45% from long range (3pt % – at least 5 attempts).

Quadir Copeland – 80%
Darrion Williams – 65%
Tre Holloman – 50%
Paul McNeil Jr – 46%

They also have 6 guys shooting over 50% from the floor (FG% – at least 5 attempts)

Musa Sagnia – 87.5%
VAL – 82%
Quadir Copeland – 76.5%
Darrion Williams – 61.5%
Tre Holloman – 59%
Paul McNeil Jr – 51%

How are they doing this?

Tons of 3 pointers and tons of shots right around the rim…

ALL BY DESIGN!

One metric the team is focused on is a lower % of mid-range shots. More 3s, and more shots going to the basket. The goal is to keep the mid-range shots under 15% of total attempts. According to Stacy, only Duke and Louisville were able to do that in the ACC last season, and those were the top 2 teams in the league.

So as you can see, while we’re out here cheering on the Pack and in awe of their offensive output, this is not by coincidence, this is a culmination of hiring a great coach, who hand-picked elite leve talent on his staff, which helped him target elite level talent in the portal, which is now putting up near record setting numbers on the floor through 3 games.

We all know NC State is never going to compete with the NIL titans of the world, but what if it they make the arm’s race less about dollars and more about data and its implementation? What if you can find advantages that other teams don’t even know exist and exploit weaknesses your opponents aren’t even aware they have?

What if you can make your dollar go ten times further than your competitors? Well, then you could achieve the same outcome with 10x fewer dollars.

It seems like this might be the plan. If so, it would mean we’re in the early stages of what may become NC State’s version of Moneyball, an approach which has a simple mantra…

“We aren’t buying players. We’re buying wins.”

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In our next couple of segments of ‘X’s and O’s’, we’ll dissect some of NC State’s offensive sets, dig into some of the metrics they are looking at, and eventually shift over to talking about the defense strategy. We’ll also dive into the roles of the other assistants (Brandon Chambers and Vernon Hamilton) as well as GM Andrew Slater.