SCOUTING KANSAS: 3 Keys to NC State getting a much needed win against #19 Kansas

I’m going to be honest here. I did not see NC State being the favorite in this game against #19 Kansas.

I know it’s a home game and I know most analytics sites had their early line at +1 for NC State (picking Kansas to win by 1), but I even thought that was a little generous. Coming into this game Kansas had a slew of metrics baked in without their uber-star Darryn Peterson. He was added back into the mix last week and Kanas destroyed Missouri by 20.

Then you had NC State who has been up and down, but hasn’t really looked like a fully cohesive unit against top tier opponents and were coming off a 10-point loss to #21 Auburn followed by a sort of uninspired 12 point win over UNC-Asheville.

Seemed like the recipe for Vegas to set this line at say +5 or so for NC State.

But here we are on the morning of the game and Vegas, to the surprise of many, has NC State as the 1-point favorites.

So what’s going on?

Well, first off this is only the 2nd true-away game Kansas has played. The first was right down the road in Chapel Hill, where they lost by 10 (and that was with Darryn Peterson).

Also, it’s worth noting that the Kansas defense, while ranked 8th nationally, hasn’t been quite as good against offenses that have AdjOE (adjusted offensive efficiency) of 117 or above, when playing away from home.

UNC – 117 AdjOE (away)
Kansas Game AdjD: 107.5

Duke – 122 AdjOE (Neutral court)
Kansas Game AdjD: 101.3

Tennessee- 119 AdjOE (Neutral court)
Kansas Game AdjD: 101.3

Now, look at their home games against teams that have a 117+ AdjOE at home.

UCONN – 122 AdjOE (home)
Kansas Game AdjD: 84.6

Missouri – 119 AdjOE (home)
Kansas Game AdjD: 86.2

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This is probably what Vegas is seeing.

NC State has a 121 AdjOE as a team, and this will be an away game for Kansas. It will also be NC State’s first game against a Top-25 team at home.

So, in translation, Kansas, whose defense is ranked 8th, has really been performing like a 70-80th-ranked defense against top offenses on the road.

Couple that with NC State’s absolutely elite defensive performance at home against Liberty (AdjD: 67), a top-tier offense coming in, and you have a decent setup here.

All that said, here are some of the keys to the game:

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Slow down Darryn Peterson
Peterson (20ppg), the elite freshman, is really what makes the Kansas offense so deadly. In games he’s played (just 3), they have an AdjOE of over 120, and that includes the road game vs UNC. He’s quick, he can shoot, and he’s dangerous with both hands.

They are going to use him in ball screens so it’ll be interesting to see how NC State deals with the switching on those. I’d assume they hedge and recover instead of switch, since Peterson is only shooting 3s at a 21% clip off the dribble. That means he’s sitting about 70% of his catch and shoot 3s. That’s insane but makes it clear that defenders can not help off him and if he’s going to beat you, you want it be with long-range shots off the bounce.

Keep them out of transition
This is a team that is deadly in transition and the way they get into transition is by creating turnovers (10+ per game) and blocking shots (3rd best nationally). They are hawks once you get into the paint. They like to clamp down, rake at the ball, and then when you force up a shot, they block it, putting them in a transition scenario where they convert at ease.

Move the basketball – Darrion as the hub
Because of how they defend, NC State can NOT let the ball stick or try to create off isolation. They need ball movement, they need to drive to dish and kick out to open shooters. Kansas will leave you on the perimeter and dare you to shoot over their closeouts. They will pick a few guys who they’ll go under screens on, instead of switching, daring them to take 3s they normally don’t like taking. They will likely do this against Quadir and Breed.

This is a game where I’d look for Darrion Williams to have a huge role. Tons of touches. As we explained last game, when Williams has a high usage rate (lots of touches) NC State thrives. This is because the ball never sticks with him. It moves fast, and this is a game where they’ll really need that aspect to their offense.

Stay tuned as well have more coverage and more insight into who Kansas is and what they’ll be looking to do against the Pack, later this afternoon.

Gametime is 5:30pm on ESPN.