FINDING BALANCE: Alyn Breed & Musa Sagnia’s time may be arriving (Pt. 2)

Last week, we looked at how NC State is still working to find the right balance with its rotation.

One thing is clear: When Quadir Copeland and Darrion Williams both have heavy usage rates, NC State is at their best.

It’s also clear that Darrion Williams is most comfortable letting the game come to him and ‘getting his’ within the flow of the offense. But when you have a high usage, high efficiency guy like Quadir Copeland, who is so ball-dominant, Williams can go stretches where he’s more of an afterthought.

With how this roster is constructed, that’s not going to work.

So after a stretch of usage rates in the teens and low 20s, the staff has made a concerted effort tweak the offense in a way that gets Williams more touches. And it’s worked.

Over the past two games, Williams has had a 29.5% usage rate, which is pretty close to where they want him.

Copeland and Williams are hovering around 30% usage each, and Lubin is sitting comfortably around 20%. These guys are the most involved in your offense, so you’d hope they are the most efficient.

Let’s take a look at Offensive Rating (points produced divided by possessions used).

Lubin: 136.9
Williams: 129.2
Copeland: 124.6

Those are great numbers from your stars. They are touching it a lot and creating offense. So go ahead and lock in these 3 in your rotation, obviously.

But what then? This is the question we want to focus on in this segment.
Who should be the other two guys playing big minutes for the Wolfpack?

So far, it’s been Paul McNeil Jr (25 minutes), Tre Holloman (26 minutes), and Matt Able (20 minutes), mostly splitting those two spots.

The thinking is that, these are your shooters, or at least the guys you brought in to be your shooters. They help you spread the floor. Lubin and Copeland aren’t shooters, so between Williams and these guys, you’re looking for that perimeter threat.

So far, Tre Holloman has been the only one of those 3 to give that shooting production in Top-50 games.

During those games, Tre is shooting 14-32, which is good for 44%. Holloman is a mid-usage guy. He’s sitting at 18% usage in Top-50 games according to Bart Torvik. And he has a good, not great, offensive rating of 118 in those games. . He is also giving you average defense, with a DBPM (Defensive Box Plus/Minus) of +2.1.

*DBPA is the number of points a player is estimated to improve their team’s defense by per 100 possessions compared to an average player. A positive number indicates an above-average defensive impact, and a negative value indicates a below-average defensive impact.

Tre’s total production package thus far has been good. So maybe you lock him in.

Now it’s down to that final spot, which has been between McNeil and Able. But neither really has been performing. This is one area where NC State could potentially look to make an adjustment. 

Paul McNeil Jr has shot just 27% from 3pt range in Top-50 games and is also in that mid-usage range with 18.2%. But that’s really high when you’re shot isn’t falling. In fact, McNeil’s overall offense is struggling in these games, with a below-average 106.7 Offensive Rating against the Top-50 opponents. You’d hope he’d be making it up on defense, but that’s not the case either, as he’s rocking a -1.2 DBPM (Defensive Box Plus/Minus) in the big games.

But while McNeil has made room for Able to emerge, the freshman hasn’t taken the reins.

Matt Able is shooting 32% from long range in Top-50 games and has a usage rate of 22% which is too high for him, considering his offensive rating in Top-50 games is 72.7, which is one of the lowest on the team. He does give you +2.4 DBPM, so he improves your defense a bit, but at what cost?

When you combine what you’re getting out of these guys, it’s a below-average 3pt shooter who is being overused for their current production. Defensively, you’d go Able by a bit, but offensively, you might trend McNeil. Neither choice is really moving the needle right now,..

This is why you’re seeing the minutes increase for senior guard Alyn Breed (averaging 21 minutes per game over the past 3 games).

Breed is shooting 43% from 3 in Top-50 games (but has only shot 7 3s). But this is where the numbers get more interesting. Breed is creating value without needing the basketball in his hands. His usage rate in Top-50 games has been super low at 13%. Despite that, he’s been very productive on both sides of the ball, coming in with an offensive rating of 117 and a DBPM of +2.3.

Aside from the metrics, Breed has looked good. He’s given State another ball handler. A solid on-ball defender. A high basketball IQ guy who doesn’t try to do too much, and in the process makes very few mistakes (only 4 TOs all season). Our own, Joey Wolferetti, pointed this out after the Asheville game, suggesting Breed be used more to calm things down and put a game manager type on the floor.

So maybe Wade opts to go….

Copeland, Breed, Holloman, Williams, and Lubin. 

But doing this changes some foundational things for NC State, a team whose strategy has been to create volume from beyond the arc.

NC State has shot 53-149 from long range against Top-50 teams, which is good for 35.5%, which, for context, is a percentage that would have you ranked 116th in the NCAA. Not awful, but not great by any means.

I guess the question is, is 6 games enough to trust the signal that maybe the high-volume 3pt attack doesn’t fit right now?

I’m not sure anyone thought Ven-Allen Lubin would be this efficient on the blocks. He’s #1 in the ACC in FG% and has been a beast against Top-50 talent, averaging 15pts and 9 boards in the 6 contests.

I also don’t think anyone thought Quadir Copeland would be averaging 15pts and 4 assists vs. Top-50 opponents either.

In fact, I bet most everyone believed the team’s leading scorer against top talent would be Darrion Williams, followed by Paul McNeil Jr, and then potentially Tre Holloman / Matt Able / VAL / Q all in that next tier.

But as you saw, McNeil, and Able have struggled, changing this entire dynamic.

Our once-perceived strengths, right now, are not our strengths, and I think you’re going to start to see the rotation and style of play (offensively) begin to reflect that…mostly in the increased role Breed may take on.

Now, this all changes if Paul McNeil Jr starts to hit at a 40%+ clip from long range, or if Matt Able settles down and starts letting the offense come to him instead of hunting his shot. Then you go back to having more of a ‘volume 3’ identity.

But we are now 1/3rd of the way through the season, and the clock is ticking for NC State. It’s time to start figuring this thing out.

This is all fluid. McNeil and Able don’t go away; they just see their role eaten into by Breed more and more until they find it, at which point their value surpasses that of what Breed is giving you, and they earn those minutes back.

It’s that simple.

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Lastly, I think you’re going to start seeing some bigger teams, which could lend itself to seeing more Musa Sagnia and VAL at the same time.

Sagnia, like Breed, is profiling perfectly as another one of these low-usage, high-value guys that pairs well with Q, Williams and Lubin.

Just look…

Against Top-50 teams, Musa has been ELITE on defense, posting a DBPM of +7.1 with an offensive rating of 121 thanks to his minuscule usage rate of 4.8. There will be times when size and defense is more valuable than Breed’s ball handling or ability to play mistake-free. In those scenarios you’ll likely start to see more Musa.

But as the season progresses, you will still see those types of players weighed against having McNeil and Able (microwave shooters) on the floor.

NC State’s perfect scenario is having those guys bombing away at a high clip, but the reality is, right now, their best bet might be hedging their bets and finding some balance.