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Unwavering faith in Paul McNeil Jr paying off for Wade as the Pack enters critical stretch

Lou Pascucci

Published

6 months ago

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Paul McNeil Jr was at a crossroads.

When Kevin Keatts was fired, and NC State brought in Will Wade, the Rockingham, NC native had a decision to make.

Would he stay in Raleigh to help Wade build, or would he enter the portal and abandon ship?

The first question would be whether or not Wade wanted McNeil.

According to Aaron Torres, it was Patrick Stacy, Will Wade’s analytics guy, who suggested McNeil had amazing underlying metrics despite only playing 8 minutes per game last season for Keatts.

“He’s a local kid. He scored 70 points in a high school game a few years ago.” Stacy said in an interview with 247 six months ago. “You’re looking for guys who make the team better when they’re on the floor. Paul made NC State 4.1 points better when he was on the floor last season, which was the highest of any other possible returning guys. He was Top-2 in scoring rate, which is points per 40. He was #1 3 point makes per 40. He was Top-2 in steals and offensive rebounds. He was lowest in TO rate per 40. When he was on the floor he was literally NC State’s best player from a rate standpoint.”

“Being able to retain a player that has a lot of years left and really high upside, that he could be a potential NBA player, was huge for us.” Stacy Added.

Paul liked the idea too, and decided to stick around.

And all offseason McNeil was turning heads.

So much so, that he went from potential role player to full-fledged starter for Will Wade in the season opener.

And the success from summer rolled over into the season…

He scored 16 in the opener, 18 in the next game and then had a dream about a breakout game before his third game, only to actually have that breakout game, pouring in 27 points vs. UNCG.

But lately, McNeil had lost his touch. He only hit double-digit points in 2 of his previous 8 games cominging into the matchup with Texas Southern. And with the non-conference slate about to end, and NC State needing to make some noise in the ACC if they’re going to go dancing, there was a feeling that Wade was going to shake things up.

He had already gone through his ‘hostile takeover’ a week prior, and while NC State had made some good progress, Wade still didn’t feel like his team had arrived.

With a lineup change feeling imminent, I decided to look at the numbers to see which way Wade and his staff might lean.

It was obvious that Alyn Breed was beginning to break into the rotation. His minutes were increasing, his low usage rates and high efficiency numbers paired well with guys like Williams, Copeland and Lubin.

But who would be that 5th starter. Would it be Holloman or McNeil?

Against Top-50 opponents Tre Holloman’s numbers seemed slightly better than McNeils, so I wondered if the move would be to lean into Holloman while McNeil found his shot.

But these are just numbers, and there is a lot more to a coaches decision than just numbers.

Wade wanted efficiency but had made it clear that he wanted guys that were bought in, hungry and dedicated. He felt like those were some areas that he needed to see more from his team.

Paul McNeil, behind the scenes was giving him that.

“Paul stayed after yesterday to work.” Wade revealed after the Texas Southern game. He stayed extra, everybody else went home. He was in the gym by himself. JoJo (Director of Player Development), him and myself just sitting there working for an extra 45 minutes after our meal last night.”

Because of this (and some underlying stats), McNeil was in the starting lineup against Texas Southern and that decision allowed the sophomore to make NC State history.

A source inside the program told us that “McNeil wasn’t even close to being benched for his shooting.” And when you couple what Wade said about his dedication with the fact that he’s #1 on NC State’s team in opponent adjusted on/off margin per/100 for the entire year, you realized, this kid just makes the team better.

McNeil’s loyalty to NC State was on display when he decided to return to Raleigh this year, and Wade rewarded that with some loyalty of his own when McNeil was struggling.

Now, he’s NC State’s record holder for 3s in a game, tied for the ACC record, and certainly has cemented his role at NC State’s starting shooting guard as the Pack enters the most critical stretch of the season.

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