NC State Tournament Resume at Christmas Break (and Who to Root For)

NC State enters Christmas break on a good note, taking out Ole Miss 76-62 yesterday.

They have now won 5 of their last 6 games to close out the non-conference slate, with their ACC opener against Wake Forest looming on December 31st.

This seemed like a good time to check in on NC State’s tournament resume. And to do that, we’ll take a look at the NET rankings and map NC State’s wins and losses to the NCAA’s ‘Quad’ levels.

• Quad 1 
  • Home: Opponent ranked 1-30 (Kansas 16)
  • Neutral: Opponent ranked 1-50 (Seton Hall 36, Boise St 48)
  • Away: Opponent ranked 1-75 (Auburn 43)
• Quad 2
  • Home: Opponent ranked 31-75 (VCU 53)
  • Neutral: Opponent ranked 51-100 (Texas 54, Ole Miss 98)
  • Away: Opponent ranked 76-135
• Quad 3 
  • Home: Opponent ranked 76-160 (UAB 118 , Liberty 113)
    
  • Neutral: Opponent ranked 101-200
  • Away: Opponent ranked 136-240
• Quad 4
  • Home: Opponent ranked 161+ (UNCG 297, UNC-A 252, Texas Southern 344, NC Central 351)
  • Neutral: Opponent ranked 201+
  • Away: Opponent ranked 241+

Most of you are familiar with how this works, but essentially, it is ever-changing. This is where it stands now, but these rankings are based on how the teams finish the season.

As of now, NC State’s Quad records are…

QUAD 1: 1-3
QUAD 2: 2-1
QUAD 3: 2-0
QUAD 4: 4-0

The good news is that none of NC State’s losses are bad. In fact, their worst loss is Texas, and that game is on the cusp of becoming a QUAD 1 loss.

The bad news is, man, NC State had some real chances. Mostly against Texas and Kansas. Those will probably both end up being QUAD 1 games that NC State was so close to winning.

NC State has some big opportunities coming up in ACC play with Duke, UNC, Louisville, and Virginia in the NET Top-30. Miami, SMU, and Clemson are in the Top-40, with Cal right outside at 44, so there will be a ton of Quad 1 and 2 chances in conference play this season.

Here are some teams to root for going forward…

– Texas: If they move up 4 spots, they are a Quad 1 game for us. If that happens, all of NC State’s losses will have been to Quad 1 teams.

– Ole Miss: If they fall apart, they could drop down to a Quad 3 game.

– Liberty: They have an outside chance of becoming a Quad 2

– Boise St: If they drop 2 spots, they become a Quad 2, so we want them winning to stay as a Quad 1

I think the panic after Maui was a little overblown now that we look back. NC State’s loss to Seton Hall seemed disappointing, but now that we look at it, they are a top-tier team, ranked #36 in the NET.

The win over Boise State was seen as a given at the time, but that was a Quad 1 basketball team (ranked 48 in the NET.)

Texas was a name-brand loss, and I think we may have valued that one correctly, as Texas is close to breaking into Quad 1 territory. The loss to Auburn didn’t cause an overreaction because it was a road game, but it put a lot of pressure on the Kansas game.

Some people (who may not know how this works) were calling Kansas a must-win for NC State. I guess some fans believed that and were crushed when we lost. Now, sure, that was a winnable game and a big opportunity lost, it really doesn’t mean much at all. Quad 1 losses don’t hurt you, but Quad 1 wins help you.

If Texas can squeeze into the NET Top-50, NC State could be looking at a 2-3 record over QUAD 1 teams, which would be a fine position to be in heading into ACC play.

The point is….

NC State still has a lot or prove, but they’re in a fine spot heading into conference play.