Off the ledge, Wolfpack fans! NC State is still a Top-30 team with a 90% chance of making the NCAA Tournament

Good lord, people.

I don’t feel like being here on a Sunday, but after spending 10 minutes on Twitter this afternoon, I figured some might need this.

NC State is just fine.

Read that again.

NC. STATE. IS. JUST. FINE.

If you’re hitting the panic button this morning after NC State lost to #19 Kansas in OT, by 1, then you’re not paying attention or your reading people with no clue.

Yes, NC State has dropped some games they could have (and we wish they would have) won. But they’ve only lost to really good teams.

Auburn is ranked #21.
Kansas is ranked #19.
Heck, even that “bad loss” to Seton Hall is just fine. They are ranked 31st in the AP Poll and 50th in Ken Pom.
Texas? They are in the Top-50 for almost every major metric site as well.

As for their wins. They might not be huge names, but they will end up being high quality wins.

Boise State is 39th in Torvik and 42nd in Ken Pom.

VCU is 54th in Torvik and 43 in Ken Pom.

The best way to figure out where your team REALLY ranks is to use those Bart Torvik and Ken Pom rankings. Those are tracking underlying metrics and have year after year been the best predictors of NCAA Tournament teams.

I know it’s fun to watch the AP Rankings, or the coaches polls, or the weekly Bracketology updates, but if you’re using those to inform you of how you should feel about your team…well, hate to tell you, but you’re living in 2005.

Those rankings, they mean nothing. Think about it, the AP Poll is voted on by a bunch of media heads. The coaches poll…a bunch of coaches who are coaching their own teams, and not digging into the metrics.

So where does NC State rank in Ken Pom and Bart Torvik?

They are 28th in Ken Pom (one spot above UNC by the way)

They are 29th in Bart Torvik

Take a look at team rankings, another metric site…

According to Team Rankigs, NC State has a 90% chance of making the tournament, with an 85% chance of that being from an at-large bid.

They believe NC State is most likely to land a 6 seed.

But how could this be? I was told Kansas was a must win for NC State!?

The wreaths are up, the trees are twinkling and NC State is still without a P4 win in the Will Wade era.

The Pack are at serious risk of missing the NCAA Tournament for the 8th time in the last 11 seasons.

Ole Miss is a must-win on Dec. 21.

— Grant Hughes (@GrantHughesNC) December 14, 2025

It never was.

NC State has 8 or 9 Quad 1/2 games left on the schedule.

Do they need to win the games they are supposed to win? Yes.

Is there any reason to panic? No.

The underlying stats for NC State look great. They are ranked 349th most unlucky team, according to Ken Pom.

Wins matter, but wins are a culmination of metrics. Vegas has been taking your money for years by understanding that simple principle. And the metrics tell you that if NC State simply stays the course, they’ll arrive at their desired destination come March.