NC State vs #2 UVA
8pm | Raleigh, NC | ACCN

After losing 5 of their last 7, NC State desperately needs a shot in the arm to save their season. Tonight is their chance. The Pack will take on #2 Virginia at home in a game that NC State really needs if they want to make a late run at the  NCAA tournament.

Losses to Miami, Wake and Clemson have really hurt the Pack as of late. A team that seemed to be climbing to their peak all of the sudden looked lost. What happened? How did they collapse? And how can they resurrect a once promising season? Let us break that down…

• Teams Got the Blueprint on Lacey and Turner
It became pretty obvious that the loss to UNC laid a blueprint. The Tarheels guarded NC State’s (and at that time the ACC’s) leading scorer with a bigger, more athletic player in JP Tokoto. This took Lacey almost completely out of the game in the early going. No longer was he able to isolate, elevate and shoot over smaller 2 guards, and this is how he had been so successful early in the season. All of the sudden teams were putting the the bigger, slower guys on Lacey and the quicker shorter guys on Turner and chasing him around. This has created havoc for the NC State offense. All of the sudden Lacey is being forced to attack off the dribble and while he can do that well (and he’s still scoring a decent clip), it’s not what makes him elite. Then you have Turner, who early on made a living of running opposing 3s around screen after screen and finding openings. All of the sudden the quicker guys on Turner are staying right with him and not allowing him to get many clean looks at all.

At the end of the day, while Lacey is still scoring and Turner is still getting shots off, teams are forcing these two to do things they don’t really feel all that comfortable doing and that is killing the Wolfpack’s flow. They are basically in the process of reinventing themselves. Before, when they needed a bucket they’d just isolate Lacey or get Turner open, but teams aren’t allowing it to be that easy anymore, so they must rethink their approach.

This is where learning the offense and running it correctly comes into play. We’ve been harping on the small things all season. The patience, the walking your man down on screens before going off of them shoulder to shoulder. The changing of  speeds and direction when baiting your man on back cuts. All of these things are areas where State just went through the motions early this season as they constantly were bailed out by Lacey’s jumper and Turner’s 3 ball. All of the sudden they don’t have those to fall back on as easily, so they seem lost. Hopefully this week off will help them retool and put their pieces back together in a way that makes a little more sense for the way the defenses are playing them.

Come Together As One…or else
This week off couldn’t have come at a better time. As we stated earlier, teams are changing the way they are attacking NC State and now the Pack needs to adjust. This team needs to become one unit. They need to trust each other and stop being so sold on ‘getting the hot man the ball.’ While that theory does work, it backfires when the rest of your team simply sits around and watches, because eventually the hot man cools off and you are stuck with a bunch of guys out of the flow of the game.

Case in point, when Abu gets going inside, all of the sudden it becomes – dump it into Abu and clear out every time. Or when Turner hits a 3, all of the sudden the next few plays are Turner running around the baseline like a wild man hunting down any shot he can find. Or when Lacey gets going, it’s ‘clear out and let him attack.’ That all good and can work, but that is not team basketball and right now NC State needs to realize that. They are just playing a bunch of games of 1 on 1 within a game and that is why you see no consistency with this squad.

This team needs to come together. Understand that with Barber clicking, all of the sudden you have all the pieces you need, but putting them together is what Gottfried is tasked with right now. You’ve seen the 8 minute stretches when this team looks like the best group in the country, and then they get their lead and start going rogue. I put that on Gottfried. He needs to make sure his teams keep their course for 40 minutes. If a player decides they want to do it themselves, then that player gets a seat on the bench to think about his mistakes. It’s now or never for this group. They need to buy in fast or they’ll be begging for an NIT invite.

Attacking Virginia
Virginia is big and strong. They’re going to make everything tough for State and try to force them to fall in love with long jumpers, but the Pack actually matches up pretty well with this team. Virginia gets a lot of mismatches by having big, strong, athletic guards, but with their leading scorer and lock down defender Justing Anderson out of this game with a broken finger, the Pack will be able to take advantage. With Brogden, Anderson and Perrantes, they can really lock down and combination of back courts, but without Anderson, Brogden’s role on defense really grows. Can he shut down Lacey (who only had 9 points against the Cavs last time out)? If he does, who guards Barber? If that ends up being Perrantes, that leaves the 6’6 Shayok to chase around Turner. Can he keep up with him and be disciplined enough to follow him around all that off the ball movement?

See, the Pack is going to have their chance tonight. The matchups look a lot more promising with Anderson out. Couple that with the fact that Barber has arrived, they’ve had a full week off and this game is a must win at home, and you have yourself a LOT of ammunition and motivation.

By the Numbers vs UVA
Simple fact. NC State MUST own the boards tonight against UVA. Last time out they were outrebounded 39-30. Anderson had 9 of those in a dominant performance, but again, he’s out for this one. Aside from him, the Pack let up 8 boards to Atkins and 7 more to Gill. You can put that on the State bigs who just were out muscled. But that was without the Abu we know now. Adding him to the mix could help down there significantly.

Back to Anderson real fast, he put up 16pts, 9 boards, and 3 assists last time out against the Pack. They lost him in the second half of the game against Louisville. That was the first time all season they had to play without their emotional, scoring and defensive leading senior. What happened in that half? Well, they let up 34 points and only scored 28. While they still won, they weren’t themselves without Anderson. That was only 4 days ago, so that means they’ve had 3 days to prepare a gameplan without him. I don’t put anything past Tony Bennett, but replacing your senior team leader might seem doable in practice, but this will be their first time really attempting to do it in a game. This is a huge break for the Wolfpack.

Ok, back to the numbers. Without Anderson (who was shooting an insane 48% from beyond the arc) Virginia really doesn’t have a go to shooter. Brogden is hitting 36% from deep, but thats really not his game. After that no one with a significant amount of attempts is shooting above 32%.

FTs will also be big. Last time out against the Cavs, State shot a piss poor 22% from the line. Virginia hit 90%. If State can control the boards, play as a team and knock down their FTs, they can get the season changing win they desperately need.