You play all season with the goal of just getting the shot to play for a National Championship in March. Whether or not you get that chance is up to a committee of experts who use numerous factors in choosing the nations top 64 teams (well they actually only choose 36 at-large teams, but you get what I’m saying.)
Those experts will reveal their decision tonight at 6pm on TBS on the NCAA Tournament Selection Show. Some teams have done enough to punch their ticket, others are on the edge of their seat waiting to see if they’ll get in.
NC State is somewhere in the middle. They haven’t exactly ‘punched their ticket’ but they also aren’t really on the bubble. NC State fans shouldn’t be too nervous tonight about whether or not their team gets in, instead they should be more interested in what seed they get and what draw they’ll have.
What should they base that feeling on? Well, there is no shortage of experts willing to weigh in on what they think the field will look like, however some or better than others. Really, the best way to get a notion on where your team will end up is to look at the collective picture and go from there.
With that being said, let’s go ahead and do that…
Bracket Matrix– 9 or 10 seed
This site takes 100 predictions (some expert, some more amateur) and averages them out. They have NC State getting in the tournament in 96 of the 100 scenarios and has them averaging a 9.5 seed. That means they’re most likely to fall in as a 9 or 10 seed.
Dance Card – 9 seed
The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. The formula has correctly predicted 209 of 218 at-large bids over the last six years combined (96%). This is one of the most trusted metrics out there. They have the Pack as the 34th seeded team (making them a 9 seed) and giving them a 100% chance of getting in.
ESPN’s Bracketology – 9 seed
Joe Lunardi’s entire job is to figure out the Field of 64. He updates his bracket predictions daily this time of year and takes everything into account. He’s up to date on which teams won which conference tournament, so he’s as up to date as it gets. He has State as a 9 seed playing Butler in the Midwest region.
CBS Bracket Predictions – 9 seed
Jerry Palm is right up there with Joe Lunardi as far as experts who follow everything NCAA Tourney related. Palm also has NC State as a 9 seed in the Midwest region, but he has them matched up against Providence.
NBC Bracket Predictions – 10 seed
NBC seems to be trailing behind this March in their bracket predictions. They haven’t made an update today yet, but as of yesterday, they had NC State as a 10 seed playing against Seton Hall. Honestly, NC State falling to a 10 seed isn’t the worst thing. Sure you play a little better of an opponent in game 1, but then you move on to play #2. As an 8 or a 9 seed you face #1 in the round of 32.
Yahoo! Big Board – 7 seed
Yahoo! doesn’t do brackets, but they do predict seeding and they are bullish on the Wolfpack. They have them as a 7 seed. They seem to put more weight on quality wins than on SOS. I think with a win over GT or BC NC State would have been looking at a 6 or a 7 seed, but after losing both it’s looking less likely they will climb that high.
NCAA’s Andy Katz – 6 seed
Katz, like Yahoo, doesn’t do brackets but he does do a Power 36 list where he ranks the top teams in the game. He has the Wolfpack at 24, which would equate to the final 6 seed slot. Katz has been on the NC State train since the win at UNC and he still seems to be riding it. Like Yahoo! Katz isn’t putting as much weight on the quadrant system or the SOS, and looking more at who you beat and where you beat them, which in our mind is a much smarter way to see how good a team is.
Sports Illustrated – 7 seed
SI does do brackets and they have NC State as a 7 seed playing against Texas in the Midwest region. It seems to be two schools of thought working their way out here. Some are taking the NCAA by their word and looking at the quadrants, which rely heavily on RPI, which relies heavily on strength of schedule. Then there are the others who think the committee uses those numbers as resources to seperate teams that are identical, but seeds mainly based on who you beat, how you beat them and where you beat them. The latter seems to pull the Pack into the 6 or 7 range, while the former has them as a 9 or 10.
So there you have it. NC State is sitting in the 6-10 range in every bracket with the majority believing they’ll land as 9.
What do you think? Let us know your predictions below in our comment section or in our forums (where we also are opening up a “Bracket Challenge” free for all Wolfpack fans.