State finishes off their regular season this weekend with a three-game series against Florida State. We took a look at all the scenarios and odds for State’s ACC Tournament seeding. Again, this tournament is pool/round robin based, so please see bracket at bottom (i.e. the difference between 3rd and 6th seed is literally who bats last, as they are the same group, in a neutral location).
Should be noted these are rough projections, since this weekend’s series are actually very competitive matchups. The best chance for sweeps are Notre Dame over VT and Pitt over Wake Forest, both of which don’t alter State’s path much. We’re betting on LOTS of 2-1 splits.
#1 -#2 Seed – 0% – Congrats Notre Dame, you’re regular season ACC Baseball Champs. Even if State sweeps and ND loses out to VT, there is no way they can be caught. Then the Coastal Champ will take the other top seed
#3 Seed – 45% – The most likely seed at the moment. If State and GT sweep, State is #3. This would also be the outcome if State goes 2-1 against FSU and GT sweeps or is 2-1 against UNC and Louisville goes 2-1 against Miami. All matchups are really good, if you’re a general baseball fan, but the chance of any one team sweeping is hard to lock in.
#4 Seed – 22% – State drops one but they stay put as leaders of Pool D.
#5 Seed – 16.5% – State drops one with others sweeping or they lose two and ND and FSU are officially ahead with a good chance of L’Ville, GT/UNC and Pitt moving past them.
#6 Seed – 5% – State drops two, with FSU, Louisville/Miami (needs sweep), GT/UNC (needs Sweep) and Pitt jumping ahead.
#7 Seed – 1% – State is swept, with FSU, Louisville/Miami, GT/UNC and Pitt jumping ahead.
#8 Seed – 1% – State is swept, with mix of any number of occurrences.
#9 Seed – 1% – The wheels fall and State is swept, with VT, UVA, Clemson and UNC closing out with sweeps.
#10-#12 Seed – 0.5% – Well that’s comforting.
Pool A: -1%
Pool B: 1%
Pool C: 59%
Pool D: 40%