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Wolferetti: UNC’s 39 FTs vs. NC State were the most they’ve shot in an ACC game since 2007 (in a game that had eerily similar stats and outcome)

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10 months ago

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I’m over on Sports-Reference.com digging through these Free Throw attempt numbers and I’m finding some pretty interesting nuggets.

I spent yesterday morning digging through NC State’s FTAs and FT disparity numbers, which I put together in this article I posted yesterday.

Today I started looking at UNC’s FTAs and FT disparity numbers. Sport-Reference only goes back to 2010 for game logs, but up until that point, I wasn’t finding another game where UNC shot as many or more FTs than they did on Saturday. Then I moved to ESPN, where I had to go box score by box score. Finally, in 2007 I found a game.  It was #1 UNC vs. Virginia, in Chapel Hill, on January 10th.

So, since 2007, UNC has never attempted more than 38 FTs in an ACC game. That means UNC’s 39 FTs vs. NC State was the most since that game. Meaning, NC Stayed played the most physical ACC game against UNC in 15 years?

Look, I watched the game, and I’m just going to go ahead and say, that’s not the case. In fact, I thought NC State was a little softer than usual in this game. But that’s just an opinion, so go rewatch and make up your own mind.

Meanwhile, I’ll just point out a few things about that 2007 #1 UNC vs. Virginia game in Chapel Hill and show you that there were quite a few interesting parallels to Saturday’s game.

In 2007 vs UNC, Virginia shot 11 free throws.
On Saturday vs UNC, NC State shot 12 free throws. 

In 2007 vs Virginia, the Heels shot 41 free throws.
On Saturday vs NC State, the Heels shot 39 free throws.

In 2007 the UNC / Virginia FT disparity was +30 for UNC
On Saturday the UNC / NC State FT disparity was +27 for UNC

In 2007 vs UNC, Virginia shot a better percentage from the floor than UNC (44% to 38%)
On Saturday vs UNC, NC State shot a better percentage from the floor than UNC (42% to 37%)

In 2007 vs. UNC, Virginia shot better from 3pt range than UNC (36% to 23%)
On Saturday vs UNC, NC State shot better from 3pt range than UNC (29% to 22%)

In 2007 vs. UNC, Virginia had more FGs in the game than UNC (26 to 25)
On Saturday vs UNC, NC State had more FGs in the game than UNC (26-20)

In 2007 UNC beat Virginia by 10 points (79-69)
On Saturday UNC beat NC State by 11 points (80-69)

This was a #1 ranked UNC team with Tyler Hansbrough (who happened to be at the game on Saturday) and Brandan Wright in the middle. They were 15-1 at the time with their only loss coming to Gonzaga. This Virginia game was their 2nd ACC game of the season. 24 of the FTs were shot by the two bigs, but the rest were spread out amongst the UNC guards, meaning this wasn’t just Hansbrough and Wright drawing contact. EVERYONE on UNC was drawing contact. Ellington, Lawson, Rashawn Terry, Quentin Thomas, and Danny Green shot the other 17.

Anyways, again, this doesn’t prove anything, but it is pretty peculiar. I was out here looking for FT totals in ACC play and couldn’t find one that was equal to or higher than the 39 from Saturday. And it just so happens that when I do find one (allll the way back in 2007), it’s also had the largest FT disparity we’ve seen by UNC in ACC play since Saturday. These crazy high (25+) FT disparity games don’t come often in the ACC for UNC, but when they come they seem to come on nights when they are shooting really low percentages from the floor.

Take from this what you will.

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A pasta eatin', Wolfpack lovin' loudmouth from Raleigh by way of New Jersey. Jimmy V and Chuck Amato fanboy. All opinions are my own and you're gonna hear'em.

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NC State Basketball

NC State is a Slight Underdog in ACC Opener vs. Boston College

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20 hours ago

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December 1, 2023

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NC State (4-2) will play their first ACC game of the 2023-24 season tomorrow on the road against Boston College (5-2), and they enter the game as slight underdogs. The Wolfpack are 1.5-point underdogs, and the Total is 150.5.

  • NC State is 0-2 Straight Up as underdogs
    • BC is 4-1 Straight Up as favorites.
  • NC State is 2-4 Against the Spread.
    • BC is 4-3 Against the Spread
  • The Total has gone Under in 2 games for NC State, Over in 3 and Pushed in 1.
    • The Total has gone Under in 3 games for Boston College and Over in 4.
  • NC State is 6-4 in their last 10 games against BC Straight Up.
    • NC State is 4–6 Against the Spread in their last 10 games against BC.
    • The Total has gone Under in 5 games, and Under in the other 5.

NC State

Boston College 

 

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NC State Basketball

#5 NC State 70 Vanderbilt 62: BOX SCORE (with notes)

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3 days ago

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November 29, 2023

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The 5th ranked NC State Women’s Basketball team improved to 8-0 tonight, defeating Vanderbilt 70-62 in the inaugural ACC/SEC Challenge.

Notes

  • Saniya Rivers scored 20+ points for the 2nd time this season, scoring 22 points on 8 of 14 shooting. She also chipped in 8 rebounds and 2 steals.
  • River Baldwin posted her first double-double of the season. She scored 12 points and grabbed 10 boards.
  • Aziaha James has now scored in double figures in 7 of 8 games, scoring 14 points tonight, shooting 6 of 10 from the field and 2 of 3 from beyond the arc.
  • Freshman Zoe Brooks led the Pack in steals (4) and assists (4).
  • NC State didn’t shoot well, making only 39% of their shots. Fortunately, they held Vandy to 34.3% shooting.

The Wolfpack will host Illinois State on Sunday at 2pm.

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NC State Basketball

NC State Stat Leaders Heading into the ACC Opener vs Boston College

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3 days ago

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November 29, 2023

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This Saturday, NC State heads to Boston College for the now-annual early ACC opener. The Pack will face off against the Eagles at 4pm on ACC Network. Here is where the team is statistically after 6 games.

  • Casey Morsell leads NC State in scoring with 14.5 ppg.
  • The Pack has 4 double-digit scorers this season. Morsell (14.5), Jayden Taylor (13.3), DJ Burns (13) and DJ Horne (11.2)
    (Last season State had 4 double-digit scorers as well. Terquavion (17.9), Joiner (17), Burns (12.5) and Morsell (11.8)) 
  • After their top 4 scorers there is a big dip. Parker comes in at 6.8, O’Connell at 6.3, and Middlebrooks at 5.5 ppg.
    (Last season Jack Clark was 5th on the team in scoring at 9 points and Mahorcic was at 8.7. However, both guys missed a large chunk of the season.) 
  • Burns is leading NC State in rebounding this year at 5.3 per game. Diarra is next with 5.3 (but is currently hampered by an ankle injury.) 
  • O’Connell is leading NC State in assists with 3.3 per game, and Burns is up next with 2.5. PG DJ Horne is only averaging 2.
  • LJ Thomas and Mike O’Connell are tied in leading the team at .15 assists per minute.
  • Jayden Taylor is leading NC State in 3pt %, shooting an outstanding 45.8%, while Morsell is up next at 34.6%. Horne is close behind at 33%.
    (LJ Thomas is shooting 50% from 3, but only has 2 attempts.) 
  • Burns is leading the bigs, shooting 56.5% from the floor, while Middlebrooks is close behind at 54.2%. Dennis Parker Jr is coming in at 45.2%.
  • For the guards, it’s Casey Morsell leading the way at 44.6% from the floor, while O’Connell is next up at 43.4%. Taylor is shooting 42.4%, and DJ Horne is struggling a bit, shooting just 34.8% from the field.
  • Jayden Taylor is turning the ball over the most at 1.8 times per game, while Burns is next at 1.7. Morsell is at 1.5 and O’Connell is at 1.2. DJ Horne has been doing a good job of protecting the basketball, turning it over just .3 times per game.

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NC State Basketball

NC State 52 Ole Miss 72: Box Score (with notes)

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4 days ago

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November 28, 2023

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NC State’s Men’s Basketball team lost it’s second straight game tonight, losing 52-72 on the road at Ole Miss in the inaugural ACC/SEC Challenge. Below is the Box Score with some notes below.

Notes

  • Ben Middlebrooks posted a double-double, with 13 points and 12 boards. To be honest, Middlebrooks was the only bright spot in this game.
  • Casey Morsell was the only other player to score in double figures (12 points), but it wasn’t pretty, shooting 5 of 14 from the field.
  • One of the poorest statistical shooting performance I can remember.
    • NC State shot 31.8% from the field and 12% from three (3-25).
  • The Wolfpack’s DNA on defense is turning over their opponent, and they were unable to do so tonight, turning over the Rebels only 7 times.
    • For comparison, the Wolfpack turned it over 13 times, giving them a Turnover Margin tonight of -6.
    • Heading into tonight, they averaged a Turnover Margin of +7.8.
    • Ole Miss scored 13 points off of turnovers, compared to NC State’s 4.
    • This is the first time this season that NC State failed to force their opponent to commit at least 10 turovers.
  • NC State was -25 when D.J. Burns was on the court, which was the worst on the team.
    • NC State was +3 when L.J. Thomas was on the court, and +2 when Ben Middlebrooks were on the court. They were the only two players in the positive.
    • Thomas and Middlebrooks should have earned themselves some more playing time going forward.
  • Ole Miss’ length was problematic for the Wolfpack, blocking 9 of their shots.

There will be more analysis on this game coming tomorrow.

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