WOLFERETTI: Ok, it’s time to be honest about some of NC State’s issues before it’s too late

NC State has issues, and I don’t have the advanced metrics to prove it.

I’m just old and have watched a ton of basketball. So if those qualifications don’t work for you, go ahead and save yourself the time and click off this article.

I’m well aware of the advanced metrics that say NC State is a Top-30 team. I talk to the PI guys all the time about it, and they’ve asked me to just let it play out. I’ve wanted to write some of these things for a while now, but I guess it took the GT loss to get the green light.

But hey, I get it. I’m old, stubborn, and antiquated. I refuse to use AI. My computer is my brain. I’ve watched thousands of games. It’s seen who wins and who loses. It then creates an output which I call ‘my opinion.’ I’m sure there are tons of statistics baked into it, but I couldn’t tell you what they are. I just know what good basketball looks like and what bad basketball looks like. I couple that with the stats that directly impact the scoreboard. How many shots did you take? How many did you make? How many assists? How many rebounds? Again, this is caveman thinking in today’s world. But here we are in mid-January, without a Quad 1 win and two embarrassing home losses in a row. I think it’s fair to hear me out.

Now again, let me warn you, after you read this, you’ll be able to ‘debunk’ some of it with data I don’t understand or explain to me why my thinking is riddled with cobwebs, I accept that. At the end of the day, my column is just old-fashioned box score stats and some old guys’ opinions.

Anyways, here we go.

– Maybe Darrion Williams isn’t built to be the ‘lead scorer’ type we were anticipating. There. I said what everyone else is thinking.
I get the increased ‘usage’ idea for Williams. That’s how he was used last season, but hear me out. Maybe he isn’t the guy he was last season.

He was a great passer for his position, he was a strong ball handler for his position, and he was a good shooter for his position. He oozed versatility. But this year, if we’re honest, he’s really only been a great passer. His ball handling has been average, and his shooting has been..well, not so hot for 3/4ths of the year.

But here is where things really aren’t adding up. Williams was a big investment for NC State, and for good reason. But things just haven’t gone according to plan with him. Maybe there is a lingering injury, maybe there is some off-the-court stuff. Who knows, that’s not for fans to worry about. The reasons aren’t relevant. What is though is that Williams is shooting 34% from the floor in conference play. He’s shooting 31% from inside the 3-point arc. These are the worst marks on the team in league play (aside from Holloman, who has been hurt).  Meanwhile, Williams has logged the second-most minutes on the team during that time and has more FG attempts BY FAR than anyone else on the team. 64 FG attempts in ACC play. The next highest? Copeland 51 and then Paul McNeil Jr with 47. McNeil is shooting 38%, but only 10 of his attempts are inside the arc. Copeland is shooting 45% with all but 15 of his attempts inside the arc in ACC play.

To Williams credit, he has been shooting it great from long range. 40% in conference play from 3, and he has rebounded it really well. 29 total boards over the first 5 ACC games.

I think the question is, at what point are we going to stop trying to let Williams ‘find it’ and start treating him the way the numbers are telling us to treat him? As an elite-level role player with a yellow-light (don’t try to do too much – only shoot if you’re open). Or are we tethered to him being our volume shooter, hell or high water, and willing to go down with this ship?

I don’t know, I’m just saying that if NC State is going to start consistently winning, then they either need Williams to start shooting it like the Williams of last year, or we need to bite the bullet and reassign him to a role that is more in line with his current output. Either way, we’re running out of time.

Now to be clear of what I’m saying here. I’m not saying Williams isn’t valuable or should be benched. I’m just saying, maybe it’s time to reevaluate him and base his role on who he is this year. And what might that look like?

I don’t know, but you just can’t have a guy who is at -13 +/- for the game shooting double-digit shots, especially when he’s struggling so much with his touch. He is impacting the game, sure. He had 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 steals. That’s a lot of value. But in 5 ACC games, he’s missed 42 shots. That’s 42 empty possessions in a league where most games come down to 2 or 3.

I don’t think this is an unfair take.

Wade has gone to bat for Darrion a lot this year. He took a ton of heat on his postgame rant after Wake Forest. It was a good move by a coach who was trying to get his star player’s confidence back on track. But that doesn’t seem to have fixed his slump. And one more loss like the GT loss and your dreams of March become even more bleak. I think it’s past time to call a spade a spade here.

– NC State has a lot of shooters and not many true scorers
Paul McNeil has been a very good shooter for NC State, but he’s been a guy that you have to run a set for, not a guy who can go get his own shot. When you have a shooter like McNeil you want him to get some volume. That’s not easy when you have defenses keying in on taking away the 3 from him, and him not being able to keep them honest by attacking off the bounce. It’s forcing McNeil to take a lot of contested 3s just to get his volume up and this is lowering his percentage vs. tougher opponents.

And if you’re not going with McNeil, you’re going with Able, who is another guy who has ended up being just a 3-point shooter at this stage of his career. Able does attempt to get some rim pressure, but he’s just too much of a straight-line driver. He doesn’t have lateral-wiggle to his game, and this is making things hard for him at this level. To make the point, just look at his conference numbers. 4-13 from inside the arc (31%), but 10-20 from 3 (50%). State has too many of these guys who just aren’t effective getting downhill or finishing around the rim.

(Yes, you also have Holloman who has been hurt a lot in conference play, but shooting just 40% from inside the arc against Top-100 teams as well.)

– This puts a ton of pressure on Quadir Copeland. He’s the only guy giving NC State any rim pressure. 
Part of me hears Will Wade when he talks about lowering Copeland’s ball dominance. It can be a lot at times. But I think Copeland also realizes that when he’s not driving, nobody is. And for whatever reason, no one ever dumps it down to Lubin for some back-to-the-basket bully ball when shots aren’t falling.

So what’s the next option? This is where NC State needs the Darrion Williams they envisioned. The guy who is a playmaking hub. Someone you can give it to and get a bucket, and when the defense starts needing to double, he’s eating them up with his passing. Without that, you’re a ‘live by the 3, die by the 3’ offense, or you’re giving the ball to Copeland to get to the hoop.

– This isn’t sustainable
There are too many chokepoints in this offense. It’s easy for a disciplined and physical defense to shut NC State down. GT just did it, and Virginia did it. Honestly, Wake Forest did it as well, but we escaped. Drop down on the Pick and Roll and make Copeland beat you from outside. Go over the top of every screen as you chase McNeil. Play physical against Williams and make him shoot over you. Hey, there will be nights when NC State gets hot. They are 3rd in the ACC in made 3s and lead the conference in percentage at 40%. But when those shots aren’t falling or they’re up against a tough defense that is imposing its will, I think there have to be other options to manipulate out a victory.

This is NC State Quad 1 issue in a nutshell. Those teams are there for a reason and most are there because they have high end defenses. High end defenses, for the most part have given the Wolfpack offense problems.

– Time to double down on defense?
If the offense is going to struggle with consistency, then maybe it’s time to see what this defense can do. The Pack’s D has pretty darn good in spurts. I know some might argue with me, but this team is undersized at the 5, severely undersized at the 4, and has zero rim protection. Despite that, the defense been holding its own. Now ,for this to be the case, you’re having to use a high-stress system of switching, pressing, and doubling. And that works when the guys are locked in and motivated, but when you have a day where you’re a step slow (like against GT), it starts to look leaky and late. It becomes pourous and this is when you start seeing all those open 3s.

I think it’s time to commit back to Terence Arceneaux. The guy has been by far the most valuable two-way player during ACC play. In fact, when he’s been on the floor in league play, NC State is +41. That’s the best number on the team. He was supposed to have been a stalwart in the rotation from day 1, but early struggles and injuries dropped him out of the rotation for a while. His length and defensive prowess can’t be matched on this roster, and at this point, it’s gotta be time to hand him back the reins.

I also think Musa Sagnia is showing signs of becoming more of a factor for this team. GT is one of the bigger teams State will face, and Sagnia held his own, playing what I thought was one of his best games in league play. He’s young, versatile, and gives you a little more rim protection. He only logged 9 minutes last night and was +7. I would have liked to see more of him but not sure if his head injury late in the first half had something to do with that.

Maybe speed, length, athleticism, physicality, and grit on defense start being more rewarded than shotmaking and playmaking on offense. Maybe instead of trying to wait for Williams to unlock your offense, maybe you unleash the dogs. Turn the game into a chippy, physical battle of will. Get live ball turnovers, create misses, turn those into transition opportunities, and a pinch of the offensive firepower you used to rely on.

– If it’s going to happen, it has to start now
Hey, these aren’t just my questions and opinions. I’m surrounded by NC State fans, and these are the questions and opinions on their minds as well. They just want to win, and whatever it takes to make that happen, they’re willing to accept.

The truth is, we are 5 games into league play now, and NC State has looked really good in just one of those (FSU). That part of their schedule was supposed to be a cake walk. The climb now becomes steep. There are enough big games left that NC State still has hope, but the time to tinker and ‘find yourself’ is over.

But this is why we hired Will Wade. In fact, if Wade really has a calling card, it’s being able to take something, tinker with it, change it and make it work. He did it at LSU, he did it at McNeese and I believe we’re going to watch him do it here at NC State.