With nothing but Quad 1 & 2 games left, plenty of opportunity moving forward for NC State

NC State blew a big opportunity this past weekend when they lost to Georgia Tech at home 78-74.

But as I got text after text during the postgame asking if that loss would cripple our dreams of an NCAA Tournament, I realized that people aren’t understanding how this years schedule works.

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again. We are conditioned on what a post-season resume looks like by years of how Keatts’ regime viewed the road to March. NC State was constantly having horrible non-conference ‘Strength of Schedules.’ Couple that with the ACC being pretty darn bad, and you were always racking up a pretty bad NET ranking (which informs the QUAD system… which ends up being a huge problem come Selection Sunday).

Let’s lay this out so everyone understands it.

Right now, NC State’s NET ranking is 34.

That’s really good. But here’s the issue.

The Pack no longer has any Quad 1 wins. Boise State has taken an absolute nose dive in conference play and has gone from a Top-40 team, to #83 (Quad 2).

But even then, the strength of NC State’s resume was that its only losses were Quad 1 losses.

Seton Hall (neutral court) – Net: 47 = Quad 1
Texas (Neutral court) – Net:41 = Quad 1
Auburn (@) – Net: 36 = Quad 1
Kansas (home) – Net: 17 = Quad 1
Virginia (home) – Net: 14 = Quad 1

That was, until this Georgia Tech loss, which will end up going down as a Quad 3 loss.

But here’s the good news. That GT loss won’t drop to a Quad 4 loss (those are devestating) and as of now NC State has no chance to drop another Quad 3 game.

Why you ask?

Because they don’t play another Quad 3 game. The ACC is so strong this season, and NC State’s schedule is set up in a way that every matchup going forward is a Quad 1 or Quad 2 opportunity.

So here’s the thing.

This is fully about how NC State plays going forward. The Georgia Tech loss will hurt, but you can offset it with a couple Quad 1 wins. And honestly, any losses in this range don’t hurt you. So going forward it’s simple. Win and get in. Lose and be left out.

NC State’s NET will likely remain in the Top-50 unless something catastrophic happens.

Last year, for context, UNC was the last team in. They had a NET ranking of 35 and were 1-12 against ‘Quad 1’ teams and had 1 ‘Quad 3’ loss.

Now, this isn’t the best example, because the entire nation was pissed about UNC getting in, but there is precedent of a Tournament team with that type of resume.

That said, let’s get our act together and start stacking wins so we can stop obsessing over these numbers. It starts tomorrow at Clemson.

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If you’re wondering how the Quad system works, here’s how it’s organized…

• Quad 1  
  • Home: Opponent ranked 1-30 
  • Neutral: Opponent ranked 1-50 
  • Away: Opponent ranked 1-75 
• Quad 2 
  • Home: Opponent ranked 31-75 
  • Neutral: Opponent ranked 51-100 
  • Away: Opponent ranked 76-135
• Quad 3 
  • Home: Opponent ranked 76-160
    
  • Neutral: Opponent ranked 101-200
  • Away: Opponent ranked 136-240
• Quad 4 
  • Home: Opponent ranked 161+ 
  • Neutral: Opponent ranked 201+
  • Away: Opponent ranked 241+