I can’t tell you how many pre-season conversations I had about the ‘Red Reckoning’ hype.
Obviously, those early conversations were all about agreement. Finally, a coach who would talk the talk! Finally, a coach who embodies the persona State fans have always said they wanted.
But as the season started and NC State was dropping these Top-50 games, those conversations took a different tone.
Some fans wondered, “Was Wade who we thought he was?”
The bravado that once gave them pride suddenly frustrated them. “What happened to the Reckoning?” they asked sarcastically.
But Will Wade has never been a magician. He wasn’t going to walk into that office and change 42 years of history.
Will Wade has always been successful because of his ability to navigate a season. Make adjustments, and come out as a winner at the end.
And don’t look now, but that seems to be exactly what’s going on here in Raleigh.
This team could have collapsed if not managed properly.
NC State has now won 8-10. They are 4-0 in ACC road games, a mark they haven’t hit since the National Championship season in ’74. They are 6-2 overall in ACC play, the best start in 20 years. But there was a moment there, where things didn’t look so hot, and I’ll be honest, I was concerned about this team’s ceiling.
But things have changed.
Remember when Wade talked in pre-season about trying not to crash the Ferrari?
That’s exactly what this has felt like.
The season was underway, NC State was stacked with talent, and things just weren’t clicking. The Ferrari was sputtering, and with the season in mid-swing, you couldn’t park it for a while as you fix it. You had to fix it on the fly. And that’s what seems to have happened.
Think about the task.
You have a ball-dominant PG in Quadir Copeland, who is extremely skilled, but is overly emotional at a position where a calm, steady hand is historically successful. Meanwhile, your biggest offseason investment, Darrion Williams, is most effective when he is facilitating and handling the basketball at a high rate.
The two just didn’t seem to coexist well at the beginning, and I believe that led to Williams playing slightly out of position, which I believe caused his slump.
Then you have a sharp shooter in Paul McNeil, who was transitioning to a role as a spot-shooter. You had a freshman in Matt Able who is hunting shots, but struggling to grasp shot selection at the college level. You had Terrance Arceneaux, another major piece who couldn’t establish a role for himself. Musa Sagnia, who wasn’t physically ready for big minutes.
As conference play was approaching, the only real consistent guy, who was solidified in their role, seemed to be Ven-Allen Lubin.
I’m telling you, the complexity of these issues could have sunk this team. It could have splintered the locker room.
But it didn’t.
Instead, Wade and his staff dove into the analytics and came up with a plan.
Wade started with a ‘hostile takeover.’
First off, they needed to establish toughness. Early on, this team looked soft. The defense was porous, and to be honest, it seemed like there was an air of arrogance about them as a group. That had to be broken.
Remember the week of practice after Maui? Matt Able showed up with a black eye. So did Alyn Breed. The Mr. Nice-Guy approach from Wade had ended.
I believe, like any good coach dealing with high-end athletes, you can’t come in as a dictator. Especially in year 1.
You have to earn trust and respect. One way to do that is to let the prisoners run the asylum for a bit. Let them see if they know what they’re doing. But as soon as they realize there are too many captains steering the ship and the boat is going down, you step in to plug the leak. You save them, but in exchange, you demand compliance and loyalty.
I believe this was the psychology behind Wade’s ‘Hostile Takeover,’ because right after that, NC State was a different team. More physical. More focused. And putting up some of their best defensive efforts of the season.
This was step one.
They sat down Q and Darrion, and talked ‘usage rates’
Before this team’s potential could really be unlocked, they needed to get everyone on the same page. Here is Wade explaining how that went down…
“So let’s put it this way. I had to sit down with Q before the Virginia game — like in the last three games before Boston College. All right, who’s the best player in the NBA right now?…Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. So he has the ball for the Thunder, the best team in the NBA. He has the ball 38% of the time for the Thunder. In our last three games, Q had the ball over 40% of the time. I said, What in the world are you doing? I was a little more colorful than that. Sure. But if the best player in the world has the ball, like, what are you doing? Yeah, it’s too much. Get the ball out of your hands. There are other people.”
This was something we had been talking about. The offense looked stuck, and Q and Darrion’s games needed to adjust to complement one another.
This would historically be a tough conversation, but today, armed with analytics, you can show a player exactly what you’re talking about.
Luckily for NC State, this staff is invested heavily in analytics. That investment paid off here.
(Read more about how NC State is thinking about analytics behind the scenes 👇)
You didn’t want to kneecap Copeland, who had been playing at an All-ACC level since showing up here in Raleigh, but at the same time, you had to get Darrion more involved. This was the conundrum.
They started giving more minutes to Alyn Breed & Musa Sagnia.
The first order of business was the low-hanging fruit.
Finding a balance between Copeland and Williams was the end goal, but first, you need to consolidate usage. Where else can we turn low-value touches into high-value touches? (We talked about that too 👇)
They turned initially to Alyn Breed, who was delivering great defense but, more importantly, was a low-usage role player. He started taking minutes from Tre Holloman and Matt Able, who were talented players, but were trying to take on too much of a scoring role and were eating up too big a share of the ‘usage rate’ that they wanted Copeland and Williams to own.
Breed did his job in a couple of different ways.
He played strong minutes, sured up the NC State defense, and settled into a low-usage role.
During this time, you started to see Copeland’s assist rate jump, Darrion’s usage rate jump, and while the team was still having some uneven results, the offense was normalizing, and the defense was finding its footing.
Matt Able and Terrance Arceneaux accepted their roles
But Breed’s emergence did something else. The dip in minutes must’ve sent a message to Matt Able, because since then, he’s been a much more effective and efficient player for the Wolfpack.
His usage rates earlier this season were at times in the high 20s, and his offensive efficiency numbers were all over the board. Very little consistency for a guy who was hunting shots.
Breed has since fallen out of the rotation completely, but I don’t think it’s anything he did wrong. I think Breed is the ultimate team guy and just played a very significant role for Will Wade.
Since getting minutes back from Breed, Able has kept his usage numbers down in the teens or low 20s. And while his offensive efficiency numbers still aren’t extremely consistent, he’s become a valuable asset. He’s providing offense on some nights, but his defense has improved, his rebounding has gotten much better, and he’s playing a lot more within the flow of the offense.
I think Breed will be back in the rotation at some point. As the games get tougher, I believe Breed’s role will be as a ‘balancer.’ Someone whom Wade uses to calm usage-inflammation from the other guards.
Meanwhile, Terrance Arceneaux has a less linear story. He wasn’t playing much prior to the Breed insertion, but something clicked for Terrance, and as Breed’s minutes dipped back recently, Arceneaux’s have increased, and he is playing EXTREMELY valuable basketball.
In conference play, Terrance has:
Box +/- : +16.5
Offensive Rating: 150
Usage Rate: 10.6
FG%: 64%
3pt %: 54%
For those that need a translation…
When Terrance has been on the floor, NC State is 16.5 points better than their opponent. He is one of the most efficient offensive players on the floor because he doesn’t demand the ball much, and his shot selection is elite. He’s only taking wide open shots and he’s knocking them down. All while being probably the best defender on the court. Rebounding it well, altering shots at the rim, and I believe leading the team in deflections during ACC play.
If anything. Terrance Arceneaux should start to eat into both Matt Able and Tre Holloman’s minutes here shortly.
It’s all coming together now
The culmination of all of this is the 8 wins in the last 10 games. It’s the road dominance and the best start to league play in 20 years.
Darrion Williams usage rate is nearing 26 in conference play, while Copeland has kept his under 30. These guys touching the basketball a lot is opening up the floor for guys like Paul McNeil and Ven-Allen Lubin, who turn floor spacing into points.
Defenses have to deal with the array of attacks Copeland can levy on you, but have to completely shift gears when Williams starts making plays from the short corner or the high post.
And when you give them too much attention, you have Lubin and McNeil making you pay.
Cut off all of that somehow, and you still have a Matt Able, Tre Holloman or Terrance Arceneaux in the wings, waiting for their opportunity to attack.
When you lay it out, it seems so simple… but it wasn’t.
As you can see, this wasn’t a natural progression. This wasn’t how the pieces fit organically. This was carefully curated and expertly managed.
This is the Will Wade difference, and honestly, this is what sets great coaches apart from the rest.
No one has a crystal ball, and when you bring 15 alpha-males into a single room, you always have to expect the unexpected. The real key to being a successful coach, and an area Wade has always excelled, is being able to manage the chaos…and fix that Ferrari on the fly.
NC State Baseball3 days ago
