NC State Wolfpack @ SMU Mustangs
Time: 9PM
Location: Dallas, TX
TV: ESPN2
Looking for betting trends, lines, and spreads? Wrong article, Click here.
NC State (16-6, 7-2 ACC) heads to Dallas to take on SMU (15-6, 4-4 ACC) at 9 PM tonight. This one is a big test for NC State. First off, they are 5-0 on the road in league play, but the Mustangs have been really good despite a tough early schedule.
They’ve beaten #16UNC already, and their only losses are to #20 Louisville, #6 Duke, #16 Virginia, and 2nd-place Clemson. So, yeah, this isn’t going to be a walk in the park for the Pack.
What does Will Wade think of the SMU matchup?
“I mean, their guard play is tremendous with Miller, Edwards, and Pierre. Their ability to make really, really tough shots and just dictate the game with their guards.
I think Washington’s an unsung guy, you know, averaging double-digit points, but they’ve got really, really good personnel. They give them space. They’ve got very good players.
What does Will Wade think of SMU star Boopie Miller?
“I mean, he does a great job operating out of the pick and roll. Anytime you’re a small guard, you’ve got to be able to shoot it, and he can really, really shoot it. He shoots over 50 percent from mid-range, shooting 53 percent from mid-range, you know, shooting at 37, 38 percent from three. He draws a lot of fouls, does a good job, gets to the free-throw line about eight times a game in league, and he’s over an 80 percent free-throw shooter in league, 90 percent free-throw shooter overall for the year, 88 percent, I believe, for the year.
He’s a really, really talented player. He was a good player at Wake Forest. His high school coach is one of my best friends, and so I’ve known about him. I’ve followed his career, and he’s a really, really good player.”
Players to Watch
Boopie Miller (6’0 – Senior – PG)
Prior NC State teams would have nightmares about this matchup, but Will Wade’s squad is a little better equipped to deal with it. That said, Miller is a handful. He’s one of these small guards who plays under control, is lightning quick at getting in the lane, and can make shots or find his teammates. The best way to describe his game is… “He’ll carve you up.”
Miller is averaging 19 points and 6.6 assists per game. He’s shooting 47% from the floor and 35% from 3pt range. So how do you guard him?
My guess would be you have to drop Lubin on the pick and roll, and you don’t switch with him. We’ve seen NC State do this a few times this season, but haven’t seen it much lately. However, with Boopie Miller, allowing him to go to work on a big is asking for disaster.
Jaron Pierre (6’5 – Senior – Guard) & BJ Ewards (6’3 – Senior – Guard)
Pierre is another guard who is pretty dynamic. He can attack you off the dribble or step out and hit a 3. They’ll run him off pick and rolls as well, but I don’t think he’s a guy you really need to adjust scheme for. He’s averaging 17 points and also shooting 47% from the floor and 35% from 3.
Meanwhile, Edwards is averaging 14 points and 5 assists. He is shooting around the same. 48% from the floor and 36% from 3.
Here is the thing, SMU might have the best backcourt in the ACC with these 3 guys. They are all versatile guards who can get their own basket or create for others. This is a dangerous back court that is putting up high-level efficiency numbers on offense. If one is off, another is on. NC State can’t hope for an off-night from these guys; they’re going to have to go out and stop them.
Keys to the Game
- NC State has the size to match up with SMU- SMU wins games with their guards, and they do so because they have good-sized guards on the wing. But NC State had bigger, stronger guards and I think they’re going to make things a lot tougher than SMU is used to. Look for Arceneaux to play a big role defensively in this game. We’ll bet he’s at 25 minutes or more in this game.
- NC State’s defense is better than SMUs- Both of thse offenses are elite. NC State’s is ranked 24th according to BartTorvik.com, and SMUs is 2oth. So this is going to be a shootout. The question is, who gets the most stops? Well, NC State has the advantage there, with a defensive efficiency ranked 35th nationally, while SMU is 79th.
- Don’t let them crush you on the offensive glass– SMU is 54th in offensive rebounding %, while NC State is 245th.
- Turn them over- Despite the great guards, they will turn it over. They rank 124th in turnover rate, while NC State ranks 13th.
Game Notes
Pack Notes | From NC State media team
– NC State hit 16 three-pointers, shooting 57.1 percent from long range to beat Wake Forest, 96-78, in Winston-Salem on Saturday and complete a season sweep of the Demon Deacons
– The win pushed the Pack’s ACC record to 7-2 on the season. It’s the best ACC record for NC State through nine games since the 2005-06 season. NC State has won its first five ACC road games this season. It’s the first time the Pack started its ACC schedule by winning its first five ACC road games since the 1973–74 season, when NC State went 12–0 in conference play and went on to capture the National Championship with a 30–1 overall record.
– NC State has had double-digit three-pointers in 11 of 22 games this season. The Pack has had two games with 19 made three-pointers, a game with 17 made threes and two games with 16. The Pack currently ranks second in the ACC and 17th in the NCAA with an average of 10.8 three-pointers made per game. NC State leads the ACC and ranks seventh in the NCAA in three point percentage, making 39.7 percent of its attempts from long range this season.
– Paul McNeil, Jr., led NC State with 28 points on 8-of-12 shooting, including 6-of-8 from three-point range, in the win at Wake Forest. McNeil has made multiple three-pointers streak in 10 of the last 11 games. McNeil, Jr., has made 46 three-pointers in his last 11 games (4.2 per game) and is shooting 48.4% from long range in those contests. For the season, McNeil is averaging 3.2 three-pointers per game to rank second in the ACC and 36th in the NCAA while his three-point percentage of 42.9 percent leads the ACC and ranks 20th in the NCAA.
– Darrion Williams had his second consecutive 20-point outing as he scored 20 points and made five three-pointers in the win over Wake. An aggressive Williams is what the Pack wants to see, NC State is 9-1 this season when he takes 12 or more shots in a game and 10-3 when he makes multiple three pointers in a game. For the season, Williams leads the team in scoring at 14.7 points per game and is second in rebounding (5.4 per game) and assists (3.3).
– Quadir Copeland continued to stuff the stat sheet this season in his performance against Wake Forest as he scored 8 points, passed out 10 assists and had two steals. The senior has led the Pack in scoring in seven of the last 16 games, in assists in 15 of the last 16 games (including 14 consecutive games) and in steals in nine of the last 16 games
Tuesday storylines | From NC State media team
– NC State is currently on a four-game win streak in ACC play. It’s the program’s first four game win streak in ACC regular season games since the 2022-23 team won four straight from Jan. 23, 2023-to-Feb. 4, 2023. A win on Tuesday would give the Pack its first five-game ACC win streak since it won the final five regular season games of the 2020-21 season.
– Tuesday is a matchup of the two of the best point guards in the ACC in the Pack’s Quadir Copeland and SMU’s Boopie Miller. Miller leads the ACC with an average of 6.6 assists per game while Copeland is right behind him in second with an average of 6.5 per game. In ACC games only, Copeland leads the conference with an average of 7.6 assists per game while Miller is in third with an average of 5.7.
– Ven-Allen Lubin had his typical consistent performance in the win at Wake, scoring 12 points on 5-of-9 shooting while pulling down eight rebounds and tying his career-high with three assists. Lubin has now shot over 50 percent in every game except for one this season. The Orlando, Fla., native leads the ACC and ranks fourth in the NCAA in field goal percentage at 68.2 percent. In his fourth season of college basketball, Lubin is averaging a career-best 13.5 points per game and his rebounding average of 7.0 per game is also the best of his career. Over the last six games, Lubin is averaging 17.7 points and 7.8 rebounds per game while shooting 71.7 percent (38-of-53) from the field and 80 percent (24-of-30) from the foul line.
– The Pack’s offense has traveled well this season, as NC State has actually shot better away from Raleigh than at home. In 10 road or neutral-site games, the Pack is shooting 48.7 percent, including 44.1 percent from three-point range, and averaging 85.0 points per game. Ven-Allen Lubin leads NC State in scoring in those contests, averaging 15.4 points while shooting 68.6 percent from the field (59-of-86) away from Raleigh.
– NC State had single digit turnovers in six of the last seven games. NC State ranks second in the ACC in turnovers (and ranks 22nd in the NCAA), averaging just 9.7 per game. NC State only has 56 turnovers (8.0 per game) in the Pack’s last seven outings.
– The Pack outscored Wake Forest 15-6 in points off turnovers in Saturday’s win. In ACC play, the Pack has scored more points than its opponent in points off turnovers in eight of nine games. In nine ACC games this season, the Pack has outscored its opponents by 96 points in points off turnovers. NC State has now had more points off turnovers than its opponents in 13 of the last 15 games. In 22 games overall this season, NC State has outscored its opponents by 177 points in points off turnovers.
– In its last seven games, NC State passed out 121 assists and had just 56 turnovers (2.16 assist-to-turnover ratio). NC State is second in the ACC and ranks 17th in the NCAA with a 1.74 assist-to-turnover ratio this season. The 1.74 assist-to-turnover ratio would be a program record. The previous single-season best in program history is currently 1.61 by the 1987-88 team.
– The Pack has a +42 turnover margin in its nine ACC games this season and leads the ACC and ranks 12th in the NCAA with a +4.2 turnover margin. The only two power conference teams in the NCAA to have a better turnover margin than the Pack are Houston (+6.9) and Iowa State (+5.2). NC State has had the same or fewer turnovers than its opponent in 20 of 22 games this season. VCU and Ole Miss are the only two opponents to have fewer turnovers than the Pack when they played.
– NC State has had double digit steals in five of its nine ACC games and has 85 overall in ACC play. The Pack leads the conference in ACC-only contests with an average of 9.4 steals per game. Quadir Copeland’s 2.4 steals per game average in ACC play is the second-best average in the conference. NC State has nine players that have 13 or more steals this season.
– Win the Boards, win the game? The Pack is 12-0 when it outrebounds its opponent this season, but just 4-6 when it is outrebounded.
– The win at Florida State marked the fourth time this season NC State has gone over the century mark. It’s the most 100 point games in a single season for NC State since the 1995-96 team had four. For the season, NC State averages 85.9 points per game which is fourth in the ACC and 31st in the NCAA. The Pack is currently on pace to average its most points since Fire & Ice (Chris Corchiani and Rodney Monroe) led the Pack to an average of 89.3 points per game in the 1990-91 season.
– Ven-Allen Lubin has been unstoppable in the second half of games this season: A missed shot midway through the second half against Liberty on Dec. 10 snapped a streak of 24 consecutive made second half field goals for Ven-Allen Lubin. In 19 games this season, Lubin is shooting 78.7 percent (74-of-94) from the field in the second half. As a team this season, NC State is shooting over 50 percent from the field in the second half. Through 22 games, the Pack is shooting 51.1 percent in the second half, including 42.5 percent from three-point range. NC State has also been excellent at the foul line in the final 20 minutes of games as the Pack is making 77.9 percent of its free throw attempts.
NC State Football4 days ago
