GAMEDAY PRIMER @ #11 Virginia | Keys to the Game, Team Trends and How to Watch

NC State Wolfpack at Virginia Cavaliers
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
TV: ACC Network

The NC State Wolfpack hit the road for a tough revenge matchup against No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers tonight at John Paul Jones Arena. NC State sits at 19-8 overall and 10-4 in ACC play, coming off a dominant 82-58 win over rival North Carolina, where they shot it great and locked down defensively. The Wolfpack have been hot lately, winning key games to solidify their tournament resume, but this is their first road test in a couple of weeks against a Virginia team that had their number last time out.

Virginia enters at 24-3 overall and 12-2 in conference, riding an eight-game winning streak and boasting one of the league’s best defenses while scoring it at a high rate (averaging 82 PPG). The Cavaliers already handed NC State a 76-61 loss back on January 3rd in Raleigh, shooting 50% from the field and dominating all aspects of the game. UVA is strong at home (13-1 this season) and ranks highly in rebounding and limiting opponents, making John Paul Jones a challenging environment. A road win here would be a massive Q1 statement for the Wolfpack’s ACC Tournament double-by and NCAA seeding hopes.

Wade’s Thoughts on Virginia:

Wade on UVA: Virginia’s playing great. They’ve got great personnel. They’re huge, they’re kind of the opposite of who we are. Their physicality poses a lot of issues for us. This will be a monumental task tomorrow, and hopefully we can play better and get off to a better start than we did in the first game. We’ve got to not let our offense, because it’s going to be tough sledding against the best defensive team in the league, affect our defense. Any chance we have, we’re going to have to be better defensively and get a few more stops than we’ve been getting.

Wade on Jacari White: The first time around, they didn’t have White. He was out, so he’s kind of value-added. He’s made them even better. He’s instant offense. You could argue he won them the Florida State game with how he played, and he did the same thing against Miami. So it’s another player you’ve got to really account for. I think they’re even better than the first time we played.

Wade on Sam Lewis: He had five threes against us the first time, so you start with he can shoot. He’s physical, can finish inside, good offensive rebounder, just does a lot of winning things. He does a good job in transition getting to the rim. He’s just an all-around very good, very efficient player.

Wade on how his team has changed: We’ll see tomorrow. Everything’s in theory until we see if we can do it tomorrow. We have to match or exceed their physicality. I’m very worried about that. They’re extremely physical. They’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the conference, they were number one going into the Miami game in offensive rebounding, and that’s an area we’ve certainly struggled with.

Keys To the Game

• Limit Virginia’s three-point shooting and transition — UVA made 13 threes in the first meeting and shot 39% from deep. NC State must contest shooters aggressively, force them into mid-range, and avoid easy fast-break points from turnovers or rebounds. Sam Lewis got hot in game 1, but he’s a streaky shooter, so NC State will hope to force him into one of his down games.
• Dominate the glass and second-chance opportunities — Virginia ranks among the best in rebounding margin; the Pack needs to box out strong, grab offensive boards, and deny second shots to keep possessions alive against UVA’s stingy defense. UVA crushed State here last time out, winning the battle of the boards 36-24 and grabbing 9 offensive rebounds.
• Match their physicality — Virginia bullied NC State last time out, and they’re going to be at it again tonight. NC State has been on and off with their physicality so far. They didn’t have it vs. UVA first time out, but welcomed it against UNC last week. To put it more simply, how bad does NC State want it tonight?

First Game Box Score

– NC State needs a big game from Darrion Williams and Ven-Allen Lubin. They combined for just 14 points on 5-14 from the floor and were out-physicalled. That can’t happen this time out.

– Copeland had only 3 FGs inside the arc. That’s not great for a guy who makes his living creating havoc around the rim. UVA is big and physical in the paint and might invite Quadir in like they did last time. This is where it’s tough for NC State. If Q isn’t doing damage at the rim, they don’t send help and if they don’t send help, shooters stay guarded. The Pack needs to solve this or they don’t stand a chance against UVA.

– That was a different Matt Able in game 1. He only played 18 minutes and went 1-5 from the floor in that game. He’s a different player now and will give UVA another problem to deal with that they didn’t have in Raleigh.

Game Notes

– NC State snapped its two-game skid with an 82-58 win over 16th-ranked North Carolina last Tuesday. NC State’s defense held UNC to 31.7 percent shooting and 15.2 percent shooting from three-point range. It was the lowest field goal percentage and three-point field goal percentage this season for an NC State opponent. NC State’s 24-point margin of victory marked the Pack’s largest win over North Carolina since an 85–57 triumph on Feb. 14, 1962.

– Quadir Copeland filled the stat sheet in the Pack’s win over the Tar Heels, posting game-highs in points (20), assists (7) and steals (4) while adding six rebounds. He continues to rank among the ACC leaders in assists (second, 6.8 per game) and steals (third, 1.9 per game). In ACC-only games, Copeland leads the league in both categories, averaging 7.8 assists and 2.36 steals through 14 contests. His 109 assists in league play are 22 more than the next closest player. He ranks fifth in the ACC with a 2.67 assist-to-turnover ratio, currently the eighth-best single-season mark in program history.

– Ven-Allen Lubin scored 12 points on 5-of-6 shooting and pulled down six rebounds in the win over UNC. In the last three games, Lubin is averaging 16.3 points per game and shooting 76 percent (19-of-25) from the field. Lubin has shot over 50 percent in every game except for one this season. The Orlando, Fla., native leads the ACC and ranks second in the NCAA in field goal percentage at 68.9 percent. In his fourth season of college basketball, Lubin is averaging a career-best 13.6 points per game, and his rebounding average of 7.0 per game is also the best of his career.

– Matt Able has posted back-to-back season-highs in scoring in the last two games. Against Miami on Feb. 14, Able scored a then season-high with 17 points on 6-of-10 shooting. In the win over UNC on Feb. 17, Able reset his season-high with 19 points as he made a season-best five three-pointers. In the last five games, Able is averaging 12.4 points per game and shooting 52.2 percent from the field (22-of-42), including 43.8 percent (12-of-23) from three-point range.

– NC State has made double-digit three-pointers in 12 of 27 games this season. The Pack has had two games with 19 made three-pointers, a game with 17 made threes and three games with 16. The 1986-87 season was when the three-point line was introduced to college basketball. From the 1986-87 season through the 2024-25 season, NC State made 16 or more three-pointers in a game six times in 39 seasons. The current NC State team has made 16 or more three-pointers in six of 27 games this season. The Pack currently ranks second in the ACC and 22nd in the NCAA with an average of 10.6 three-pointers made per game. NC State leads the ACC and ranks ninth in the NCAA in three-point percentage, making 39.6 percent of its attempts from long range this season.

Tuesday storylines

– Through games of Sunday, Feb. 22, NC State has an 11-7 record against Q1 and Q2 teams in the NET rankings. The only ACC team has that more Q1/Q2 wins than the Pack are Duke (16) and Virginia (12). There are only 14 teams in all of NCAA DI that have more combined Q1 and Q2 wins than the Pack.

– Ven-Allen Lubin’s shooting efficiency continues to dominate the conference and is on pace to break the program’s single-season field goal percentage record. Lubin is shooting 68.9 percent from the field, which leads the ACC and ranks second nationally. In ACC games alone, he is shooting 68.8 percent — eight percentage points higher than second-place Caleb Wilson of North Carolina (60.6 percent). Lubin’s current mark would surpass NC State’s single-season record of 64.1 percent, set by Manny Bates during the 2020-21 season. His 68.9 percent clip currently ranks as the second-highest single-season field goal percentage in ACC history, trailing only UNC’s Brendan Haywood’s 69.7 percent in 1999-2000 and sitting just ahead of Duke’s Zion Williamson’s 68.0 percent in 2018-19.

– Pick Your Poison: The Pack’s scoring balance has been on full display this season, with the team’s top four scorers separated by just 15 points through 27 games. Quadir Copeland leads NC State with 378 total points, followed closely by Darrion Williams (369) and Ven-Allen Lubin (368), while Paul McNeil Jr. is fourth on the team in scoring with has 363 points. In ACC play, the Pack’s top three scorers are separated by just five points. Lubin leads NC State in scoring in ACC games with 197 total points while Copeland has 195 and Williams has 192.

– Paul McNeil Jr. made two three-pointers in the win over UNC and has now made multiple three-pointers in 20 games this season, including 14 of the last 16 games. McNeil’s next three-pointer will be the 100th of his career and his 84th this season which will tie him for 10th on the program’s single season chart. McNeil, Jr., has six guaranteed games left in the season (five regular season, at least one in both the ACC Tournament and postseason) and at his current rate of 3.1 three-pointers made per game he’d finish the season with 101 three-pointers which would be four short of the single-season NC State record held by DJ Horne (105 in 40 games) set in the 2023-24 season.

– The Pack’s offense has traveled well this season, as NC State has actually shot better away from Raleigh than at home. In 12 road or neutral-site games, the Pack is shooting 47.7 percent, including 42.3percent from three-point range, and averaging 84.7 points per game. NC State averages to make more threes per game away from Raleigh (11 per game in 12 games) than in home games (10.2 per game in 15 games).

– The keys in the Pack’s 6-1 ACC road record is three-pointers and turnovers. NC State has made an average of 13.2 three-pointers per game and shooting 48.2 percent from long range in its six ACC road wins, but shot a season-worst 18.2 percent and made a season-low four three-pointers in its lone ACC road loss at Louisville. The Pack has had single digit turnovers in every ACC road win and is averaging just 7.2 turnovers per game in ACC road wins, while it had 10 turnovers in the loss at Louisville. NC State has a 2.35 assist-to-turnover ratio (101-to-43) in ACC road wins and a +32 turnover margin in the six road wins, but had 1.0 assist-to-turnover ratio at Louisville and did not win the turnover battle as each team finished with 10.

– NC State had season-lows in points (61), field goals made (18), field goals attempted (50) and field goal percentage (36.0) in the loss earlier this season to UVA. It’s the only time this season that NC State has been held under 70 points and one of just three games where the Pack has shot under 40 percent from the field.

– The Pack also had a season-low seven assists in the loss earlier this season to Virginia. Quadir Copeland has had seven or more assists in eight of 14 ACC games this season and has 109 in 14 ACC games (22 more than any other ACC player in conference games), but had just four in the earlier matchup with the Cavaliers.

– NC State has scored 100 or more points in four games this season. It’s the most 100 point games in a single season for NC State since the 1995-96 team had four. For the season, NC State averages 84.9 points per game which is third in the ACC and 24th in the NCAA. The Pack is currently on pace to average its most points since Fire & Ice (Chris Corchiani and Rodney Monroe) led the Pack to an average of 89.3 points per game in the 1990-91 season.

– NC State leads the ACC and ranks 10th in the NCAA in turnover margin at +4.0. The Pack is second in the league and 18th in the NCAA, averaging just 9.4 turnovers per game. NC State’s advantage in the turnover battle has led to the Pack having great success in turning its opponents’ mistakes into points. NC State has outscored its opponent in points off turnovers in 11 of 14 ACC games this season. In 14 ACC games this season, the Pack has outscored its opponents by 111 points in points off turnovers.  In 27 games overall this season,  NC State has outscored its opponents by 192 points in points off turnovers.

– Win the Boards, win the game? The Pack is 12-0 when it outrebounds its opponent this season, but just 7-8 when it is outrebounded.

How to Watch

• TV: ACC Network
• Streaming: Available via ACC Network app, ESPN app (with provider login), or services carrying ACCN (fuboTV, YouTube TV, etc.)
• Radio: Wolfpack Sports Network (local broadcasts) or SiriusXM College Basketball channels