GAMEDAY PRIMER vs #1 Duke | Keys to the Game, Players to Watch, and How to Watch

NC State Wolfpack vs. #1 Duke Blue Devils
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC
TV: ESPN

The NC State Wolfpack welcomes the nation’s top-ranked #1 Duke Blue Devils to a sold-out Lenovo Center tonight for ESPN’s Big Monday showdown. NC State sits at 19-10 overall and 10-6 in ACC play, coming off a tough overtime loss at Notre Dame that put them on the outside looking in for a double-bye in the ACC Tournament. The Wolfpack have been competitive at home (11-4 this season) and boast one of the league’s better offenses, but they’ll face their stiffest test yet against a Duke team that has been absolutely dominant all season long.

Duke enters at 27-2 overall and 15-1 in ACC action, riding a six-game winning streak and controlling the league standings with elite efficiency on both ends—particularly their suffocating defense (best adjusted defensive rating nationally). However, NC State needs this game bad and win here can erase three weeks of poor play, putting them right back in the mix for that double-bye.

PackInsider’s Keys To the Game:

• Defense, Defense, Defense: The ‘let’s just out-score’em’ style of basketball was always a fool’s errand. NC State does have an elite offense, but selling out for scoring while the defense gets picked apart isn’t going to lead to success. The Wolfpack has to figure something out on defense. The switch-everything approach works against teams with poor ball-handlers or questionable decision makers; however, Duke isn’t one of these teams. This isn’t an indictment of the system; it’s that the personnel simply haven’t consistently brought the level of focus and intensity needed to run it. Duke is disciplined and composed. They will seek out the mismatches and attack them. When NC State sends their doubles, they’ll make the extra pass and find the open man. NC State only had two days to get prepared for this game, so while I think it’d be the right time to break out a wrinkle here, I’m not sure the team had time to implement one.
• Spread them out, exploit, and attack: Duke’s defense disrupts great offenses by hounding the ball handler and denying point-to-point passes. This forces offenses to start further out, and usually cuts off their main option, forcing teams to improvise or go to second or third reads. The reason NC State has always seemed to have success against Duke teams lately is that, like it or not, NC State has played mostly off of isolation these past 10 years. Duke is spread out by nature, and they will rarely double or send much help. That’s going to be an issue because once again, NC State is playing a ton off of isolation with Quadir Copeland. Duke PG, Calev Foster is a big guard, but Copeland is bigger and honestly, better one on one. This is the matchup to watch and one of the few where NC State has the advantage.
• Which Darrion?: Which Darrion is going to show up for NC State tonight? The physical one who stays locked in all night or the one that comes out ripping off contested 3s? That will be telling. Against UNC, Williams lived in the paint early on, and NC State needs him there again. He can pop out and knock down open 3s, but off the dribble pull-ups with a hand in his face, that’s a recipe for disaster for NC State. Williams is a high percentage 3-point shooter when he’s getting clean looks, but  he can and has shot NC State right out of a run when he gets trigger-happy. All of that said, he’s going to go up against Cam Boozer, who is bigger and stronger. But hey, if Williams wants to play at the next level, this is going to be the type of guy he sees every night. NBA scouts will be watching this nationally televised showdown. I’d expect the best, most physical, most competitive version of Williams tonight, but I guess we’ll see.
• Maintain composure: NC State has been a Jekyll and Hyde team all season, but I’d expect the ‘good NC State’ tonight vs. Duke. However, keeping composure will be key. Duke is always ready to reel off a 10-0 run, so no lead is safe. If the Pack jumps out to a lead, it will have to do something it hasn’t done all season. Stay composed and build off that lead with smart, high-percentage shots instead of hoisting up 3s and taking their foot off the gas.

Players to Watch

• Ven-Allen Lubin : NC State is going to be seriously out-sized in the paint. Can Lubin hold his own? The Pack will need him to play his best game of the season, both offensively and defensively if they want to have a chance.
• Matt Able : We believe it’s time for Wade to go all-in on Matt Able. NC State needs his physicality, his effort, and his shooting if they are going to beat Duke. With him and McNeil on the floor, NC State’s offense hums. Duke doesn’t have a lot of those pesky small, quick guys that bother Able and McNeil. They win with size and versatility, but NC State has that too. This is a game where we’re hoping to see a lot more Able and Arceneaux.
• The Refs: Let’s be honest. This will play a huge factor in this game. Will NC State get the UNC whistle or the UVA whistle vs. Duke? Against the Heels, Boozer had to play through a ton of contact and didn’t get any ticky-tack calls. Against UVA, a team that was allowed to bump NC State around all night,  wasn’t allowed to play that way vs. Duke. Boozer got 12 FTs in that one. NC State is thin in the middle. With Sagnia banged up (and definitely not physically ready for what Duke throws at you), NC State will have to rely on Ebube if Lubin gets in foul trouble. And if Boozer is able to put Williams ont he bench with fouls, then the advantage tips huge to Duke.

Game Notes

– NC State fell to Notre Dame, 96-90, in overtime on Saturday. The Pack never trailed in regulation (leading for 38:38 of the 40 minutes) and had a nine-point lead, 79-70, with 4:30 to go in regulation, but Notre Dame closed the second half on an 11-2 run to force overtime. The Pack shot just 2-for-11 from the field in the extra five minutes.

– Ven-Allen Lubin scored a season-high 24 points on 8-of-10 shooting and pulled down 10 rebounds for his sixth double-double of the season. Lubin has shot over 50 percent in every game except for two this season and now leads the ACC and ranks third in the NCAA with his 68.1 shooting percentage. In his fourth season of college basketball, Lubin is averaging a career-best 13.9 points per game, and his rebounding average of 7.1 per game is also the best of his career.

– NC State has made double-digit three-pointers in 13 of 29 games this season. The Pack has had two games with 19 made three-pointers, a game with 17 made threes, and three games with 16. The 1986-87 season was when the three-point line was introduced to college basketball. From the 1986-87 season through the 2024-25 season, NC State made 16 or more three-pointers in a game six times in 39 seasons. The current NC State team has made 16 or more three-pointers in six of 29 games this season. The Pack currently ranks second in the ACC and 25th in the NCAA with an average of 10.5 three-pointers made per game. NC State leads the ACC and ranks 13th in the NCAA in three-point percentage, making 38.6 percent of its attempts from long range this season. NC State has now made 304 three-pointers this season which is the most in a single season in program history. The previous best was 294 threes by the 2004-05 team in 35 games.

– Quadir Copeland is saving his best for last as he is averaging career best in points (13.7), assists (6.8), steals (1.8), field goal percentage (50.6%), three-point percentage (41.5%) and assist-turnover ratio (2.64). He leads the ACC in assists,  ranks fourth in steals and fifth in assist-turnover ratio. In ACC-only games, Copeland leads the league in assists (7.7 per game) and steals (2.3). His 123 assists in league play are 27 more than the next closest player. He has 198 assists on the season and his next assist away will tie him for the 10th-most in a single season in program history.

– NC State leads the ACC and ranks 15th in the NCAA with a 1.72 assist-to-turnover ratio. The 1.72 assist-to-turnover ratio is on pace to set the single season school record which is currently 1.61 set by the 1987-88 team. Wolfpack starters have a combined assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.05 this season. This century, the only ACC team to have an AST/TO ratio of 2.00 or higher from its starters over an entire season is Virginia (2.19 in 2022-23 & 2.17 in 2023-24).

Monday Storylines

– Despite the current two-game losing streak, NC State’s 10-6 record still ties for the second-best league mark for the Pack since the 1991-92 season when the ACC expanded to playing at least 16 conference games. The 2003-04 team with an 11-5 mark is the program’s best record through 16 games. The Pack has now been 10-6 through 16 games five times (2005-06, 2012-13, 2017-18, 2022-23, 2025-26) in the last 35 seasons.

– Ven-Allen Lubin has grabbed 12 offensive rebounds in the Pack’s last two games and now ranks fifth in the ACC with an average of 2.97 offensive rebounds per game. He has 86 now on the season and is eight away from entering the program’s top-10 offensive rebounding single season chart.

– NC State has spent the majority of the season ranked first in the ACC and ranked in the top-20 nationally in three-point percentage, but in the last two games the Pack is just 19-for-67 (28.4%) from three-point range. The Pack still leads the ACC in three-point percentage on the season (38.6%) and ranks 13th in the NCAA. NC State is 14-3 this season if it shoots better than 35 percent from three-point range, but just 5-7 when it shoots under 35 percent from long range.

– Pick Your Poison: The Pack’s scoring balance has been on full display this season, with the team’s top four scorers separated by just seven points through 29 games. Ven-Allen Lubin leads NC State with 403 total points, followed closely by Darrion Williams (400), Quadir Copeland (398) and Paul McNeil, Jr. (396). In 16 ACC games, the Pack’s top four scorers are separated by 22 points. Lubin leads NC State in scoring in ACC games with 232 total points while Williams has 223, Copeland has 215 and McNeil has 210.

– Those four players are all averaging at least 13.0 points per game this season, tied for the most by any DI team. If they finish the season with all averaging over 13 points per game it would be the first time NC State has four such players in a single season since 1990-91 (Rodney Monroe, Chris Corchiani, Tom Gugliotta and Bryant Feggins).

– The Pack’s top four scorers this season have all led – or tied for the lead – in scoring at least seven different times this season. But who ends up leading the team in scoring can determine if the Pack is winning or losing the game. NC State is 7-0 this season when Darrion Williams leads the team in scoring and 6-1 when Paul McNeil, Jr., leads the team in scoring. The only time NC State lost when Williams or McNeil led the team in scoring this season was last Tuesday when McNeil had a team-best 22 points in the loss at Virginia. When Quadir Copeland (5-5) or Ven-Allen Lubin (3-4) lead or tie for the team-lead in scoring, the Pack is just 8-9 in those contests.

– NC State has scored 100 or more points in four games this season. It’s the most 100 point games in a single season for NC State since the 1995-96 team had four. For the season, NC State averages 84.2 points per game which is third in the ACC and 26th in the NCAA. The Pack is currently on pace to average its most points since Fire & Ice (Chris Corchiani and Rodney Monroe) led the Pack to an average of 89.3 points per game in the 1990-91 season.

– NC State leads the ACC and ranks ninth in the NCAA in turnover margin at +4.0. The Pack also leads the league and ranks 16th in the NCAA, averaging just 9.3 turnovers per game. NC State’s advantage in the turnover battle has led to the Pack having great success in turning its opponents mistakes into points. NC State has outscored its opponent in points off turnovers in 13 of its 16 ACC games this season. In 16 ACC games this season, the Pack has outscored its opponents by 132 points in points off turnovers.  In 29 games overall this season,  NC State has outscored its opponents by 200 points in points off turnovers.

– Win the Boards, win the game? The Pack is 12-0 when it outrebounds its opponent this season, but just 7-10 when it is outrebounded. NC State enters the game against Duke having been outrebounded in every game in played in February (seven games) and last won the rebounding battle in the win over Wake Forest on Jan. 31.

Pack All-time vs. No. 1 ranked teams

– NC State is 6-28 all-time against teams ranked #1 in the Associated Press poll.

– The Pack’s last win over a top-ranked team was Jan. 12, 2013 when NC State beat number one ranked Duke, 84-76, in the Lenovo Center.

– Monday will be the 12th time NC State has faced Duke when the Blue Devils are ranked number one. The Pack is 2-9 against Duke in those games, but has beaten the Blue Devils the last two times Duke has come to the Lenovo Center ranked number one (1/12/2013 and 2/15/2004).

– NC State is one of only 17 Division I teams to have at least six wins over No. 1 ranked teams.

– In addition to the two wins over Duke, NC State has three wins over North Carolina when it was ranked No. 1 and the Pack’s sixth win over an AP No. 1 was April 4, 1983 when the Cardiac Pack beat top-ranked Houston, 54-52, to claim the program’s second National Championship.

NC State series with Duke

– Monday will be the 259th all-time meeting between NC State and Duke. Duke leads the all-time series 153-105.

NC State is 8-10 against Duke in games played at the Lenovo Center.

– Last Meeting (January 27, 2025): NC State held a 35-22 first half lead and took a 37-33 lead into halftime, but second-ranked Duke was able to pull away late in the second half for a 74-64 win in Durham. Dontrez Styles led NC State with 18 points and Trey Parker chipped in 15. Cooper Flagg led Duke with 28 points and seven rebounds while Kon Knueppel added 19 points.