Does this metric say that NC State’s NCAA Tournament dreams rest on winning vs Stanford?

NC State has a 99% chance to make the tournament, according to the prediction sites.

Ok, but that is baking in the assumption that they beat Stanford today. And yes, odds are good that happens, but this is an NC State team that has lost 5 of its last 6 games and has dropped games to Georgia Tech and Notre Dame. Those are two of the bottom 4 teams in the league.

Looking at Evan Miya’s ‘win-quality vs. loss-quality’ chart, he’s been able to establish an ‘at-large’ cutoff line. This means teams above that line are likely in, and teams below that line are likely out.

And where is NC State?

Well, they’re one of the 4 closest teams to that line.

Another interesting nugget here is that two of the other teams on that line are teams NC State has played. One is an Auburn team the Pack lost to, and the other is a VCU team that we beat.

RESUME QUALITY

Here is every team's Win Quality (Y axis) compared to their Loss Quality (X axis), using the Resume Quality metric at https://t.co/cegyfz8ykZ👇 pic.twitter.com/tw4JquZgP0

— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 6, 2026

A loss today and a win in the ACC Tournament? Probably in, but depends who other conference tournaments.
A loss today and a loss in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Probably out?
A win today. certainly in.

How about we just win today to make this conversation irrelevant. Cool?