NC State vs. Texas: What are the “Experts” Predicting?

NC State will face Texas tonight in a First Four matchup in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, with both teams entering as #11 seeds.

The Wolfpack opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but the line has since flipped, with NC State now listed as a 1.5-point underdog.

So…what are the “experts” saying?

Here’s a look at how projections and analysts expect this one to play out.

Expert Predictions

OddShark: NC State will win, Cover the Spread and the Total will go Under
ESPN: NC State has a 50.2% chance of winning
Bart Torvik: NC State 83 Texas 82, the Wolfpack has a 55% chance of victory
KenPom: NC State 83 Texas 82, the Wolfpack has a 51% chance of victory
CBS Sports: All 5 experts pick NC Straight Up and Against the Spread
Yahoo: Texas 82 NC State 78
Jay Bilas: Texas
Sports Gambler: Texas
The Athletic: NC State

The Big Picture

It’s about as split as it gets.

Some of the most respected analytical models (KenPom, Torvik) lean slightly toward NC State, projecting a tight, one-possession game.

Meanwhile, traditional media picks are mixed down the middle, with just enough variance to make this feel like exactly what it is…

A true coin-flip First Four game.