Connect with us

NC State Basketball

WOLFERETTI: My take on NC State’s 96-78 win over Wake and how ‘The Reckoning’ is well within reach

Published

4 months ago

on

Oh my, how far we’ve come.

Just two months ago, some of you were writing the eulogy for the ’25-’26 season.

Now, NC State is 7-2 in the ACC, tied for 3rd in the ACC standings, and seemingly playing the best basketball of the season. How did they do it?

Well, I think it was a process, and one that’s pretty well documented in this piece we did earlier last week about how Will Wade averted a disaster and has NC State playing at ‘Red Reckoning’ levels right now.


But the culmination of all of it was on display yesterday when NC State went on the road again and went into Wake’s house and beat them by 18. In fact, over the past two games, NC State has won by a combined 38 points. These aren’t just wins, these are beatdowns. These are messages being delivered.

Let’s dig into yesterday’s game…

Quadir Copeland is the engine

Wade’s tough love style is bringing out the best in this kid. He’s gone from a loose cannon to one of the country’s best PGs over the past two years, with him making the largest jump this season at NC State. The skillset has always been there, but right now, you’re watching the mental side of the game start to click for Copeland. He’s become more mature, and he’s showcasing real leadership skills, and he’s tweaked his game to not just put up big numbers, but to WIN basketball games.

Copeland has 68 assists in conference play and 27 turnovers. That’s a 2.5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. For context, that 2.53:1 mark would rank among the top all-time at NC State. Below are the Top 4 (Copelands 2.53 mark would be next).

  • Tyler Lewis (2012-14) – 3.05:1 (183 AST / 60 TO)
  • Sidney Lowe (1979-83) – 2.942 (762 AST / 259 TO)
  • Michael O’Connell (2023-25) – 2.939 (241/82 TO)
  • Chris Corchiani (1987-91) – 2.60 (1,038 AST / 400 TO)

Against Wake, Copeland was the engine that made this thing run.

He didn’t have a great shooting night, in fact, it was one of his worst (3-9 for 8 points…only his 3rd game of the season in single digits), but that didn’t matter. He controlled the game by dishing out 10 assists and only turning it over 1 time.

Wake’s defense was actually decent, but they just couldn’t contain Copeland. He was in the lane all night, forcing help and finding open shooters. NC State’s 57% from 3 on this night was largely thanks to open looks created by Q’s ability to get in the paint, or force helpside attention.

He finished with a team high +25. Meaning, when he was on the floor, NC State won by 25 points. The biggest takeaway from this game for me, though, was what we saw when Quadir came off the floor.

Q got in foul trouble early in the 2nd half, and it put him on the bench. During this time, NC State looked out of sorts.

I know they want to have Darrion Williams be the backup PG, because they want the ball in his hands when Q is out. But Williams got an extended look there, and when Wake ramped up the pressure, Darrion got a bit flustered. His 5 turnovers led the team. Wade turned to guys like Holloman and Able, but both looked shakey and the offense just seemed stagnant with Q on the pine.

This may be Wade’s confirmation that he needs Alyn Breed

Alyn Breed hasn’t seen much time recently, thanks to the emergence of Terrance Arceneaux and Matt Able, but I feel like, as the games start to get tougher, Breed needs to stay ready. Wade told him that, but he still didn’t get a minute in this one…


Now, I get it. Breed’s +/- numbers in ACC play weren’t good. But he’s a strong defender, and he can handle the basketball without turning it over. Last night, Holloman and Able got a look at PG duties, and if I’m Wade, I’m not going back to that well. This is where Breed’s role can be at this point. If Q goes out with foul trouble and teams ramp up the pressure on Darrion to where he’s struggling to handle it, you have Alyn Breed.

I’m mentioning this because while I love what Breed gives you, this 8-man rotation Wade has going is working. It wasn’t clear how he’d find a way to get more court time. But yesterday convinced me that his steady hand is exactly right for the situation we saw yesterday.

Darrion Williams continues resurgence

It’s not a coincidence that since Darrion Williams got his game back, NC State has now won two games in a row by nearly 20 points. This is the weaponry Wade believed he had when he started the season, and was so bullish on this team’s trajectory.

Wake bet on Williams coming back to earth, and it burned them.

They stayed home against him and didn’t help. They tried to use muscle on him to not let him get too deep on the blocks. But Williams is too versatile, and he just stepped out and started burying 3s. 20 points on 5-8 from 3.

Honestly, I thought Wake gameplanned well for NC State. They bothered Copeland at the rim and they were very physical with Williams in the middle. But this is why NC State is where it is. Copeland adjusted and became a distributor and Williams became a shooter. And while Wake was so busy dealing with them, Paul McNeil shot the lights out.

Speaking of Paul McNeil Jr…

Dear lord. P2 is becoming what we all hoped he’d be when Keatts signed a kid who had scored 71 points in a high school game. But it took Will Wade and a well-constructed roster to really tap into what he was capable of.

McNeil scored a game-high 28 points on 6-8 from 3pt range.

First off, I needed to go back and see what was going on last year. How the heck did McNeil go from a guy who couldn’t get off the bench on a team that didn’t even make the ACC Tournament to an NBA-level sharp shooter in just 12 months?

I went back and looked. Here is what I wrote last year….

“The real reason NC State fans had tuned out wasn’t because of the team’s record; I think it was mostly because the team wasn’t trying anything new, and it was sucking the ‘hope’ from the program. After over 4 months of play, it was very clear that the MOC, Hill, Taylor, Styles, Middlebrooks lineup wasn’t going to get it done, however this group continued starting every game and continued to see the most playing time.

That’s why it was such a shock when freshman Paul McNeil was announced in the starting lineup vs. Wake Forest.

McNeil was NC State’s top recruit this past offseason. He was the guy who many believed had to have a big season for NC State to be competitive. He held the North Carolina record for most points in a single high school game (71), and was on an NC State team whose roster had very little in terms of shooting and scoring.

 

But McNeil wasn’t getting minutes. After playing 11 in the season opener, he didn’t hit double-digit minutes until December 22nd.

Now, I’ll be honest. Watching McNeil early on, it was very clear that he was lost on defense. He had an itchy trigger finger on offense and he wasn’t used to the speed and physicality of the ACC. But it was very clear that he had a skill set that no one else on this team had. He was a long, decently athletic 6’5 guard who as recruited to be a prolific scorer.

Here is what I said about McNeil in my preseason preview…

As you can see, I couldn’t even envision a scenario here where McNeil was not playing some sort of role for this basketball team. And I’m not someone who puts a ton of trust into college freshmen, but based on this roster makeup, it seemed clear that Paul McNeil would have to be a factor if this team was going to compete. They would have to deal with some defensive hiccups in exchange for what he brought on the offensive end.

So I was pretty shocked and frustrated to see McNeil not be thrown into the fire earlier in the year.
—-

What a difference a year makes, and what a difference a coaching staff makes. I also go back to Assistant GM Patrick Stacy’s interview prior to the season, where they immediately looked at the advanced metrics from the prior year and knew Paul McNeil was a bonafied star.

“He’s a local kid. He scored 70 points in a high school game a few years ago.” Stacy said in an interview with 247 eight months ago. “You’re looking for guys who make the team better when they’re on the floor. Paul made NC State 4.1 points better when he was on the floor last season, which was the highest of any other possible returning guys. He was Top-2 in scoring rate, which is points per 40. He was #1 3 point makes per 40. He was Top-2 in steals and offensive rebounds. He was lowest in TO rate per 40. When he was on the floor he was literally NC State’s best player from a rate standpoint.”

“Being able to retain a player that has a lot of years left and really high upside, that he could be a potential NBA player, was huge for us.” 

Paul McNeil aside, this is the difference this staff is making. I get the criticism on the heavy reliance on advanced analytics from time to time, but if you don’t invest and take those seriously, you miss things like this.

Terrance Arcenaux with another ADVANCED METRICS banger

Yesterday, the guys wrote a piece about Arcenaux and how great his numbers have been in ACC play.

The cutoff they talked about was 23 minutes. If TA plays that or more, NC State does some pretty amazing things.

And guess what? TA played 25 minutes in this one.

Once again, his box score wasn’t eye-popping: 25 minutes, 9 points, 2 boards, 2 steals.

But the advanced metrics were screaming.

  • TA was 2nd on the team in raw +/- at +15 (only behind Copeland).
  • A team-low usage rate of 12.1
  • 2nd on the team in Defensive Box +/- at 3.7
  • NC State’s AdjO/AdjD differential was 42, which is the 3rd highest of the season (below FSU & Liberty)
  • Those are 3 of the 4 games this season where TA has played 23+ minutes.

Pretty darn telling if you ask me.

Lubin, the closer?

As usual, Ven-Allen Lubin did his thing, and you didn’t even notice. 12 points, 8 boards. But there was one difference.

Down the stretch, with Copeland on the bench, NC State started to do something I haven’t seen them do all season. They isolated Lubin and let him go to work from the block. Now, it wasn’t game-changing, and Lubin wasn’t perfect down there, but this is an area I’d like to see NC State build on.

There will come a time this season when you have a lead and shots just aren’t falling. When you want to get to the line and finish off a game. Usually this is Copeland time. You give it to him and let him create. But what if Copeland is in foul trouble, or he regresses for a minute and starts going off the rails. This is where you need to be able to bring in the closer. Dump it down to VAL and let him work.

NC State did that a little down the stretch here, and it was a nice little change of pace and seemed to help them settle and fend off Wake’s late push.

 

Entering the gauntlet…

NC State is about to start a very tough stretch of games.

They have SMU away, and if you watched that SMU/Louisville game last night, it was a barn-burner.

SMU will test the Wolfpack’s defense in a way it hasn’t been tested recently. And then after VT comes to town, it’s 20th-ranked Louisville, 4th-place Miami, #16 ranked UNC, 17th ranked UVA, and eventually #4 Duke.

It’s a good thing NC State is starting to click on all cylinders, because this team’s biggest tests are still in front of them.

 

 

 

 

Related Topics:


Trending