NC State is likely in the ‘IN’ the NCAA Tournament. But what seed should we expect?

NC State’s season looked very promising before the late collapse. They were positioned for a double-bye in the ACC Tournament, a fourth-place finish in the conference standings, and most likely a 4- or 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Then came the rough stretch. They lost six of their final seven regular-season games and entered the ACC Tournament on shaky ground.

The tournament brought a noticeable change. They knocked off a determined Pitt squad in the first round and pushed the No. 2 seed Virginia to the absolute limit in one of their most energetic and competitive performances all year.

For anyone who follows bracketology closely, that first-round win against Pitt was the decisive moment that locked up NC State’s NCAA Tournament bid. Casual fans, however, don’t always see it that way.

I’ve now talked to three NC State supporters — big fans, but not obsessive bracket trackers — who were convinced the team was going to miss the field entirely. That caught me off guard because, to most people paying close attention, it had seemed fairly obvious they were safely in.

Because of those conversations, a little extra explanation feels worthwhile this time.

This year’s team finished with 20 wins. That total probably doesn’t sound overwhelming when you remember past seasons under Kevin Keatts with 23 wins that barely got them in, or 24 wins that ended up in the NIT instead of the NCAA Tournament.

The real difference lies in strength of schedule. Keatts tended to build big win totals by playing softer non-conference opponents, and for a while that strategy worked. Over time, though, the selection committee started placing far more emphasis on schedule strength, which hurt teams that padded their records against weaker competition.

Wade and his staff chose a different path. They deliberately scheduled some of the toughest possible opponents early in the year. The thinking was simple: those games would better prepare the team for the grind of ACC play and would also build a much stronger case when March arrived.

This year NC State’s strength of schedule ranked 34th nationally. That excellent mark helped produce a NET rating of 35, a number that almost always earns an automatic invitation to the NCAA Tournament.

“Almost” is the keyword.

During Keatts’ second season — the 24-win year with a 9–9 ACC record — the team actually sat at No. 33 in the NET. They still got left out. That was the debut year of the NET system replacing RPI, and apparently, the value of blowout wins against weak opponents was already being discounted heavily by the committee. Their schedule was one of the softest in the country, so the high NET number didn’t carry the weight it appeared to have.

This season is a clear contrast. The current team also sits at a NET of 35, but everything else is stronger: an elite 34th-ranked strength of schedule, five Quad 1 wins instead of three, and ten conference victories instead of nine.

No serious bracketologist has NC State anywhere near the bubble. They are firmly in the field of 68.

The only question that remains is exactly where they will land in the bracket. What seed and which region?

Updated Projections from Top Bracketologists

(Rankings in parentheses reflect their overall accuracy ranking over the past five years among the top 186 bracketologists tracked by Bracket Matrix.)

Hoops HD (7th) – #10 seed

Glazewskitology (8th) – #10 seed

Bracksketblogs (10th): #10 seed

Bauertology (11th): #10 seed (Last Four Byes)

The Pi-Rate Ratings (13th): #10 seed

T3 Bracketology (14th): #11 seed

D Ratings (15th): #9 seed

1-3-1 Sports (16th): #10 seed

Kevin Pulsifer (18th): #10 seed

And for those of you who want that mainstream take (although he was one of the worst last year as predicting the field), here is Joe Lunardi–>

Joe Lunardi: #10 seed

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What is my prediction? 

I’m going to buck the trend and say NC State notches a 9 seed.

Why? Well, because while I know they love to tout their reliance on metrics, the Tournament Committee for as long as I can remember, has always had a flair for the dramatic. What I mean by that is, they love a storyline. They love a moment they can market. NC State gives them that, and I think the higher they can get NC State, the more coverage they can milk from them.

Think about it. The 1983 run, of course. NC State lets you play that thing over and over to your heart’s content. Then you have the Final Four run from 2 years ago, and all the DJ Burns highlights. And on top of that, you have the new coach story, and that new coach happens to be the most marketable head coach in the field, Will Wade.

The metrics say the chance is slim to none. But something tells me a higher-ranked NC State gets them more primetime coverage of one of the better storylines in the field.