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NC State vs. Seton Hall: A Statistical Comparison

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The #9 seed NC State will tip-off against against #8 Seton Hall on Thursday in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament at 4:30pm. Vegas and KenPom both pick the Wolfpack to lose, and ESPN’s BPI agrees, giving the Pirates a 58.9% chance of victory.

What are we to make of this? Well, let’s take a look at the numbers to see if they agree.

Offense

NC State holds the slight edge in adjusted offensive efficiency (116.4 compared to 116.3). The Wolfpack ranks 24th in offensive efficiency, while the Pirates rank 26th.

That makes these two teams seem super close offensively, but further analysis gives the Wolfpack more of an edge.

When you look at the Four Factors that lead to wins, NC State has the offensive advantage in two of the four.

  • They shoot the ball better than Seton Hall (Offensive Effective Field Goal Percentage 53.3%, compared to 52.8%).
  • They take better care of the ball than the Pirates (Offensive Turnover% 16.9%, compared to 17.9%).
  • Seton Hall has a lot of height down low, and grabs offensive rebounds more often than NC State (Offensive Rebound%: SH 34.2% compared to NCST’s 33.6%).
  • The Pirates get to the free throw line more often than the Wolfpack (Offensive Free Throw Rate: NCST 34.5 compared to SH 33.9). On the plus side of this issue, Seton Hall  ranks 262nd in the nation in free throw percentage.

That still looks pretty even offensively, but when you look at some of the more specific offensive stats, the Wolfpack’s offensive advantage gains a little bit more traction.

Defense

On paper, Seton Hall is the stronger defensive team in this matchup. Their adjusted defensive efficiency is 99, compared to NC State’s 101.3.

When you look at the defensive Four Factors that most often lead to wins, Seton Hall holds the advantage in three of the four…

  • Seton Hall holds their opponents to a lower shooting percentage (Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage: SH 49.9% to NCST’s 51.5%).
  • NC State does a much better job creating turnovers (Defensive Turnover%: NCST 20.6% to SH 17.9%).
  • Seton Hall does a better job at boxing out, preventing their opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds (Defensive Offensive Rebound%: SH 28.5% to NCST 31.9%)
  • Seton Hall does a better job keeping their opponents off of the free throw line (Defensive Free Throw Rate: SH 28.9 to NCST 32.6)

When you take a look at some of the more specific defensive stats, Seton Hall continues to have the defensive edge.

A true comparison doesn’t just compare offensive and defensive stats, but compared strengths and weaknesses. Here are a few that are noteworthy:

  • Seton Hall isn’t responsible with the ball, ranking 141st in Offensive turnover percentage, while NC State specializes in taking the ball away, ranking 46th in defensive turnover percentage.
  • NC State is atrocious at blocking out offensive rebounders, ranking 307th in Defensive OReb%, and unfortunately Seton Hall ranks 29th in offensive rebounding percentage.

NC State Basketball

NC State is a 9-Point Favorite Over Hofstra in the 1st Rd of the NIT

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NC State (22-11) is a 9-point favorite over Hofstra (27-7/17-4) in the 1st round of the NIT tonight at 7pm in Reynolds Coliseum. The TOTAL is sitting at 163.

ESPN’s BPI Matchup Predictor gives the Wolfpack a 86.6% chance of victory.

  • NC State is 7-3 Against the Spread in its last 10 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NC State’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NC State’s last 8 games at home
  • NC State is 20-4 Straight Up when they are favored this year
  • Hofstra is 0-5 this season Straight Up as the underdog this year
  • NC State is 10-9 Against the Spread at home this year
  • Hofstra is 11-4 Against the Spread on the road this year
  • The TOTAL has gone UNDER in 12 of NC State’s games at Home this year

NC State is 2-0 all-time against Hofstra.

1983 – 82-56 (W)
2014 – 76-64 (W)

The Wolfpack barely covered the spread back in 2014, beating the Pride by 12 points, as 12.5 point favorites.

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NC State Women’s Basketball Earns #3 Seed in NCAA Tournament

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RALEIGH – For the second straight season, the 10th-ranked NC State women’s basketball team (26-5) will be hosting NCAA Tournament games in Raleigh. Announced Monday evening during the 2019 Women’s NCAA Tournament Selection Show on ESPN, the third-seeded Wolfpack will host 14th-seeded Maine on Saturday, March 23 at 1 pm inside Valvano Arena at Reynolds Coliseum on the campus of NC State University.

The Wolfpack hosted Maine on Dec. 15 of this season, defeating the Black Bears 84-46. Maine (25-7) has won 14 straight games and won its second consecutive America East Conference Tournament title, defeating three foes by an average of 22.6 points per game during the competition.

Saturday’s winner will take on the winner of sixth-seeded Kentucky and 11th-seeded Princeton on Monday, March 25 (time TBD). Kentucky and Princeton will open the action in Raleigh by playing at 11 am on Saturday, March 23.

NC State has played 16 NCAA Tournament games in the city of Raleigh throughout program history. The Wolfpack is 14-2 in these games and has not lost an NCAA Tournament contest in its home city since 1983. The 2019 season marks the Wolfpack’s 25th trip to the NCAA Tournament and 28th appearance in the top national postseason tournament (AIAW National Tournament appearances prior to the beginning of the NCAA Tournament in 1978, 1980, and 1981).

Last season, the Wolfpack hosted and defeated Elon (62-35) and No. 16 Maryland (74-60) in the first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament in Raleigh.

With a 26-5 record and a third-place finish in the Atlantic Coast Conference that was followed up by an exciting run to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament, the Wolfpack is in the midst of a very strong season and will be making its third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance.

Photo Credit: @PackWomensBBall

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NC State’s Looks to Win NIT for the 1st Time

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Look…I get it.

NC State coaches, players and fans of the program all wish the Men’s Basketball team was dancing in the NCAA Tournament.

The NIT is never the goal of any program.

Back in 1975, NC State legend David Thompson said…

“Personally, I don’t want to play another basketball game unless it’s in the NCAA. The NIT just seems like such a loser’s tournament.” 

While I get the sentiment, I don’t agree with Skywalker.

This team is not a group of losers, and they have been given another opportunity to put the Red and White on with pride, and stand as brothers once again, and beat whoever walks onto the court with them.

One of the best ways to stick it to the NCAA selection committee would be to win the NIT, something the Wolfpack have never done.

This will mark the 12th time NC State has played in the NIT (National Invitational Tournament), and they enter the 2019 tournament with a 16-12 NIT record.

The Wolfpack have made it to the Final Four of the NIT 4 times.

1947: 3rd Place
1976: 3rd Place
1978: 2nd Place
2000: 4th Place

NC State has only lost in the 1st round of the NIT on two occasions: 1948 & 1984.

(Via NC State Media Guide)

NC State has an opportunity before them to prove the doubters wrong.

Also, the Wolfpack fanbase has an opportunity to not cry over spilled milk, and show once again they are the most faithful and loyal fanbase in the nation. This isn’t a time to boycott. It’s a time once again to support your team.

If your invited to play in a tournament, you might as well win the dang thing.

 

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NC State Earns #2 Seed in NIT, Will Host Hofstra Tuesday

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While NC State didn’t make it into the 2019 NCAA Tournament, they have earned a #2 seed in the NIT, and will host Hofstra on Tuesday night in Reynolds Coliseum at 7pm on ESPN2.

If the Wolfpack wins they will face the winner of Georgetown and Harvard.

If they were to win that game, they would likely face a team from North Carolina in the Quarterfinals.

How on God’s green earth UNC-Greensboro earns a #1 seed, and the Wolfpack are slapped with a #2 seed in the same bracket…no words.

2019 NIT bracket

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