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NC State vs. Seton Hall: A Statistical Comparison

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The #9 seed NC State will tip-off against against #8 Seton Hall on Thursday in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament at 4:30pm. Vegas and KenPom both pick the Wolfpack to lose, and ESPN’s BPI agrees, giving the Pirates a 58.9% chance of victory.

What are we to make of this? Well, let’s take a look at the numbers to see if they agree.

Offense

NC State holds the slight edge in adjusted offensive efficiency (116.4 compared to 116.3). The Wolfpack ranks 24th in offensive efficiency, while the Pirates rank 26th.

That makes these two teams seem super close offensively, but further analysis gives the Wolfpack more of an edge.

When you look at the Four Factors that lead to wins, NC State has the offensive advantage in two of the four.

  • They shoot the ball better than Seton Hall (Offensive Effective Field Goal Percentage 53.3%, compared to 52.8%).
  • They take better care of the ball than the Pirates (Offensive Turnover% 16.9%, compared to 17.9%).
  • Seton Hall has a lot of height down low, and grabs offensive rebounds more often than NC State (Offensive Rebound%: SH 34.2% compared to NCST’s 33.6%).
  • The Pirates get to the free throw line more often than the Wolfpack (Offensive Free Throw Rate: NCST 34.5 compared to SH 33.9). On the plus side of this issue, Seton Hall  ranks 262nd in the nation in free throw percentage.

That still looks pretty even offensively, but when you look at some of the more specific offensive stats, the Wolfpack’s offensive advantage gains a little bit more traction.

Defense

On paper, Seton Hall is the stronger defensive team in this matchup. Their adjusted defensive efficiency is 99, compared to NC State’s 101.3.

When you look at the defensive Four Factors that most often lead to wins, Seton Hall holds the advantage in three of the four…

  • Seton Hall holds their opponents to a lower shooting percentage (Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage: SH 49.9% to NCST’s 51.5%).
  • NC State does a much better job creating turnovers (Defensive Turnover%: NCST 20.6% to SH 17.9%).
  • Seton Hall does a better job at boxing out, preventing their opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds (Defensive Offensive Rebound%: SH 28.5% to NCST 31.9%)
  • Seton Hall does a better job keeping their opponents off of the free throw line (Defensive Free Throw Rate: SH 28.9 to NCST 32.6)

When you take a look at some of the more specific defensive stats, Seton Hall continues to have the defensive edge.

A true comparison doesn’t just compare offensive and defensive stats, but compared strengths and weaknesses. Here are a few that are noteworthy:

  • Seton Hall isn’t responsible with the ball, ranking 141st in Offensive turnover percentage, while NC State specializes in taking the ball away, ranking 46th in defensive turnover percentage.
  • NC State is atrocious at blocking out offensive rebounders, ranking 307th in Defensive OReb%, and unfortunately Seton Hall ranks 29th in offensive rebounding percentage.

NC State Basketball

#10 NC State Women’s Basketball Defeats Georgetown 76-65, Ties 2nd Best Start in Program History

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The #10 NC State Women’s Basketball team defeated Georgetown 76-65 in their first true road game of the season yesterday, improving to 10-0, tying the 2nd best start in program history (1990-91 & 1997-98). If the Wolfpack win the next 4 games, they will tie the 1999-2000 squad’s school best 14-0 start.

Freshman Center Elissa Cunane led the Pack in scoring, with 23 points off the bench (career high). Graduate Senior Guard Kiara Leslie chipped in 18 points, hitting 4 of her 5 three-point attempts. She is shooting 44% from beyond the arch on the year. Redshirt Junior Guard Grace Hunter, the Pack’s leading scorer, filled the stat sheet with 13 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assists. Junior Guard Aislinn Konig was the 4th Wolfpack player in double figures, with 12 points on 4 three-pointers (4-12).

Senior Forward DD Rodgers had a whopping 20 rebounds, which marks the 5th highest single-game total in school history.

NC State held the Hoyas to 36.8% shooting, and out-rebounded them 49-28.

The Wolfpack will try to claim sole possession of the 2nd best start in school history at home against Maine next Saturday at 6pm.

(Photo Credit: GoPack)

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KenPom Ranks NC State 25th After Western Carolina

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NC State beat Western Carolina 100-67 last night, improving to 8-1 on the year.

Stat guru KenPom’s formula ranks the Wolfpack 25th after the victory.

Through 9 games, NC State ranks 7th in the ACC.

1) Duke
3) Virginia
7) UNC
11) Virginia Tech
16) Florida State
18) Syracuse
25) NC State
32) Clemson
41) Louisville
42) Miami
56) Notre Dame
72) Georgia Tech
77) Boston College
112) Pittsburgh
148) Wake Forest

For what it’s worth, the highest the Wolfpack was ranked in KenPom’s formula last year was 39th, after starting 109th (finished 46th).

NC State started this season ranked 36th.

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VIDEO: NC State Dedicates Valvano Arena at Reynolds Coliseum

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In 1949, Reynolds Coliseum was opened, named after businessman and sportsman William Neal Reynolds of Winston-Salem, North Carolina.

In 2007, the basketball court in Reynolds Coliseum was named after Hall of Fame NC State Women’s Basketball Coach Kay Yow.

Prior to last nights 100-67 victory over Western Carolina, NC State officially dedicated James T. Valvano Arena at Reynolds Coliseum.

Valvano was the coach at NC State for 10 years (1980-90), leading the Cardiac Pack to a national championship in 1983.

He also led the Wolfpack to two ACC Tournament Championships (1983 & 1987) and two ACC Regular Season Championships (1985 & 1989).

The Wolfpack advanced to the NCAA Tournament in 7 of his 10 seasons:

1 National Championship
2 Elite Eights
1 Sweet 16

Check out the ACC Digital Networks video of the dedication ABOVE, and NC State’s is below.

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VIDEO: Daniels, Hellems & Harris Talk After NC State’s 100-67 Victory Over Western Carolina

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Redshirt Sophomore’s Devon Daniels and Blake Harris, and Freshman Jericole Hellems met with the media after NC State’s 100-67 victory over Western Carolina last night (Highlights). The video is ABOVE, and a bulleted breakdown is BELOW.

  • Daniels: It was a great experience (playing in Reynolds). The fans are right on the court. I liked it a lot. There was a lot of energy in the gym and I think we all felt that.
  • Hellems: Of course, being my first time playing in there. It was a blessing and an amazing experience to have the support from the fans and then obviously with it being loud. I enjoyed myself.
  • Harris: Playing at Reynolds was a great time. My first time. Great crowd. A lot of intensity. I liked it.
  • Daniels: You know, I think everybody knows about his (Valvano) story, but to actually play for the school he represented, it’s a different meaning. You can definitely tell how much of an impact he had on the community. It was a great experience playing here…playing for him and the fans.
  • Hellems: Just knowing the legacy that he created with the team that he coached. It’s a blessing to have NC State across your chest, knowing the history behind it. Having this opportunity to play with NC State is a blessing.
  • Harris: I thought it was wonderful that we got the W on the day they changed the arena to his name.
  • Daniels: I think I was just over-thinking it (getting adjusted to Keatts system). I was just worried about trying to get comfortable, thinking about it way too much. I just settled down, kept it simple, trusted the offense, and it came a lot easier. I just kept listening to my coaches, putting in the work and it helped a lot.
  • Daniels: We are trying to have the mindset just to stay consistent. Playing versus anybody, but definitely playing versus ranked teams at different arenas…we always get excited about that. It’s another chance to prove ourselves and get better. So, I think we’re definitely ready and we’re definitely excited (to face Penn State in the Boardwalk Classic Saturday in Atlantic City).
  • Harris: Our bond is amazing. We all fit together. We’re not selfish at all. We’re all like brothers. We just want to win and make Coach Keatts happy.
  • Hellems: Like Blake was saying, I think we’re all just creating bonds, having fun, and trusting in each other. Obviously, it showed tonight that we played good together, weather any circumstances, and the next game is going to be the same way.
  • Daniels: We’re growing every game. The more we compete together and know each other’s tendencies, I feel like we’re coming along good. We’ve played some pretty good teams. Some ranked opponents. That has helped us bond and I think we’re just going to keep on getting better. Better and stronger.
  • Daniels: Sheesh. Those wolf heads on the Gucci loafers. Crazy

(Video via WRAL)

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