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Predictive Formula says NC State 2nd most likely to pull off upset in Round 1

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I’m going to give it to you straight, this is about as unique and in-depth a formula as I’ve ever seen from FiveThirtyEight. If you aren’t aware, FiveThirtyEight is an ESPN owned sports and politics driven analytics site. It’s basically a home base for number junkies.

Yesterday, they posted an article, showcasing a formula they’ve been using to project upsets, but it’s not your typical algorithm. It was actually inspired by results from image recognition. If you want the dirty details of how it calculates this stuff, then just give it a read, but basically, they say it is trained to find upsets using team-to-team similarities instead of raw statistics such as offensive rebounds or turnover rates.

The take away for you the NC State fan is the Wolfpack scored out as the 2nd most likely team to pull off an upset in round 1.

They call this the Localized Upset Classification model (LUC, pronounced “Luke”) and here is their blurb on how it has performed over the past 4 years (that’s how long it’s existed

The early returns are promising. For those four tournaments, LUC scored a precision of 70.3 percent while also identifying 59.4 percent of all upsets, including those of No. 9 seeds over No. 8 seeds. The model had some risky calls that worked in its favor. It gave the 2014 Mercer team a 57.1 percent chance of beating No. 3 Duke. Two years later, it gave No. 13 Hawaii a 55.4 percent chance of beating Cal and No. 14 Stephen F. Austin a 61.5 percent chance of beating West Virginia. Any of these picks would be enough to catapult LUC to the top of most office-pool standings in the first week. (538)

So basically of the upsets, it chooses they are right 70% of the time. That’s the number State fans should care about because NC State is not only on that list of chosen upsets but 2nd on it, giving them an even higher probability.

 

NC State Basketball

NC State Men’s Basketball Ranks 41st in 2019-20 Preseason AP Poll

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The 2019-20 AP Men’s Basketball Preseason Poll is out, and NC State is sitting at 41st.

The Wolfpack spent 6 weeks ranked in the AP Poll last week, peaking as high 15th in Week 10.

NC State opened last season 50th in the AP Preseason Poll, with 1 vote. In the final AP poll released in Week 19, the Wolfpack didn’t receive a single vote.

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NC State Basketball

NC State Men’s Basketball Ranked 28th in KenPom’s 2019-20 Preseason Rankings

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Stat junkie KenPom’s preseason 2019-20 rankings are out, and the NC State Men’s Basketball team sits at 28th nationally to start the year.

The Wolfpack’s is projected to rank 10th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, with the Defense sitting at 64th.

NC State sits at 6th in the ACC in these preseason rankings, which lines up perfectly with the Official Preseason rankings by the ACC Media. They are projected to have the 4th most efficient offense, and the 12th most efficient defense.

The Wolfpack is projected to go 22-9 in the regular season.

NC State finished the 2018-19 season ranked 41st nationally in KenPom’s final rankings.

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NC State Basketball

Primetime with the Pack: HIGHLIGHT REEL

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The NC State Men and Women’s Basketball teams put on a show for the fans last night at Primetime with the Pack at Reynold’s Coliseum.

Freshman Dereon Seabron won the dunk contest. Graduate Senior Pat Andree won the three-point contest. Sophomore Jericole Hellems won the skills competition.

The Men’s Basketball team have a “secret” scrimmage against East Carolina tomorrow, and their first Exhibition Game is next Sunday, October 27th, against Mount Olive. The season opener at home against Georgia Tech is on November 5th.

The Women’s Basketball team have an Exhibition Game against Anderson in Reynolds Coliseum on October 31st, and their season opener is on November 6th against North Carolina A&T at home.

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NC State Basketball

Andy Katz Ranks NC State’s Markell Johnson as the #4 Player in the ACC

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NCAA.com’s Andy Katz released a podcast two days ago previewing the 2019-20 ACC Men’s Basketball season, and he thinks that NC State Senior Point Guard Markell Johnson is the 4th best player in the conference.

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Here’s what Katz had to say about Johnson in the Top-10 breakdown on the podcast.

“He’s a stat stuffer. If NC State goes to the NCAA Tournament, Markell Johnson will lead them. At ACC Media Day told me that he needs to come more out of his shell. He knows that. To be much more demonstrative. Kevin Keatts is putting it on him to become a player like that.” (Katz)

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