NC State Basketball
Predictive Formula says NC State 2nd most likely to pull off upset in Round 1
I’m going to give it to you straight, this is about as unique and in-depth a formula as I’ve ever seen from FiveThirtyEight. If you aren’t aware, FiveThirtyEight is an ESPN owned sports and politics driven analytics site. It’s basically a home base for number junkies.
Yesterday, they posted an article, showcasing a formula they’ve been using to project upsets, but it’s not your typical algorithm. It was actually inspired by results from image recognition. If you want the dirty details of how it calculates this stuff, then just give it a read, but basically, they say it is trained to find upsets using team-to-team similarities instead of raw statistics such as offensive rebounds or turnover rates.
The take away for you the NC State fan is the Wolfpack scored out as the 2nd most likely team to pull off an upset in round 1.
They call this the Localized Upset Classification model (LUC, pronounced “Luke”) and here is their blurb on how it has performed over the past 4 years (that’s how long it’s existed
The early returns are promising. For those four tournaments, LUC scored a precision of 70.3 percent while also identifying 59.4 percent of all upsets, including those of No. 9 seeds over No. 8 seeds. The model had some risky calls that worked in its favor. It gave the 2014 Mercer team a 57.1 percent chance of beating No. 3 Duke. Two years later, it gave No. 13 Hawaii a 55.4 percent chance of beating Cal and No. 14 Stephen F. Austin a 61.5 percent chance of beating West Virginia. Any of these picks would be enough to catapult LUC to the top of most office-pool standings in the first week. (538)
So basically of the upsets, it chooses they are right 70% of the time. That’s the number State fans should care about because NC State is not only on that list of chosen upsets but 2nd on it, giving them an even higher probability.
What did an ACC Title & Final Four mean to NC State Legend TJ Warren? I caught up with the man who won the ACC Player of the Year Award in 2014 to get his take.
What was it like for you watching NC State go from the #10 seed in the ACC Tournament, to winning the Championship, to going to the Final Four?
I’m a second generation Wolfpack basketball player. Wolf blood runs through my veins, so to be able to witness a ride like that was truly amazing.
What did this run say about Kevin Keatts and these players? In what ways did you see them adapt, change or persevere?
I think that is speaks to the heart that the players have. As a 10th seed in the ACC tournament, it’s easy to pack it in and look towards the offseason, but they did the opposite. They bonded together over adversity and that’s what made them so endearing. Hard work in the face of adversity, that’s something that Wolfpack fans can relate to.
As one of the best players to ever wear the Red & White, what did this run mean to you personally?
As I mentioned earlier, NCSU hoops has been in my family for a long time, so it meant a whole lot personally. This run definitely took me back to some of the fond memories I have of putting on the Red & White and playing in front of a packed house at the PNC.
What was the most memorable moment for you?
I think Mike’s shot to tie the game at the end of regulation. It just felt like destiny at that point. Anytime you get to beat UNC and Duke days apart is special too.
How do you think this run can change things for the NC State Basketball program going forward?
I think that it puts us back on the national radar where we belong. After a magical run like that, I think it makes players want to be a part of that. A run like that reinvigorates a program definitely.
_______
Warren is 1 of only 6 NC State players to ever be named the ACC Player of the Year. In his Sophomore season, Warren was named a 2nd Team All-American by Sporting News and the AP. He averaged 24.9 points per game, which is the 5th best mark in a single season in NC State history. Warren scored 871 points that year, which is the most points ever scored in a single season by a Wolfpack player.
TJ was selected by the Phoenix Suns with the 14th overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft.
NC State Forward Ernest Ross announced today that he is entering the Transfer Portal.
View this post on Instagram
Ross played in 14 games this year, averaging 3.4 minutes per contest. After playing in 34 games last season, averaging 11.4 minutes per contest, Ross saw his participation dip to a career low this season, but that didn’t for a second break his infectious personality. On the sideline, you could count on Ross every single game to be the heart and soul of the Wolfpack on the bench. To watch a player who played as little as he did, care as much as he did, makes me super proud that this young man represented NC State so well.
Ross was a consensus 4-star player in the 2021 recruiting class, with 247Sports ranking him as the #60 overall player nationally. ESPN ranked him as the #5 overall player in the state of Florida.
Ross has one more year of eligibility remaining.
NC State has 3 scholarships available now.
Best of luck Ernest!