NC STATE IS DANCING! But slips in seeding, landing an 11-Seed play-in game vs. Texas

A season that started with promise and new beginnings has ended with NC State finding itself in familiar territory.

NC State is once again an 11 seed. But this time, it’s with an asterisk: a play-in game in Dayton, for the right to even enter the main bracket of the 2026 NCAA Tournament (This Tuesday @ 9:40 pm).

State was projected to be a solid 10 seed by nearly every bracketologist over this past week. However, it seems as if they were being overvalued according to the selection committee. Now,  NC State is in a do-or-die matchup against the Texas Longhorns. The winner advances to face BYU in the first round proper, while the loser heads home early. For a program that thrives on underdog narratives, this could be the spark for another magical March…or the end of what will be remembered as a season where NC State simply did not live up to expectations.

The Late-Season Collapse

NC State was looking like a Top-4 ACC team in early February under first-year head coach Will Wade, the Wolfpack had built a résumé highlighted by quality wins over Clemson, UNC, and SMU, with key contributions from transfers like Quadir Copeland and Ven-Allen Lubin anchoring a versatile lineup. They sat at 10-7 in the ACC, flirting with a top-four finish and a double-bye in the conference tournament.

Then came the implosion. Over their final seven regular-season games, NC State dropped six, including a shocking home loss to Georgia Tech, a 40+ point blowout at Louisville, a late-game meltdown against Miami, and a heartbreaking 85-84 senior-day defeat to Stanford. The losses weren’t just in number; they exposed defensive lapses, poor rebounding in crunch time, and an inability to close out winnable games. “We had opportunities, but we didn’t execute down the stretch,” Wade said after the Stanford loss. “It’s on all of us to flip the script now.”

The slide dropped them to a 10-8 ACC record and the No. 7 seed in the conference tournament. A gritty 98-88 win over Pitt in the second round offered a glimmer of hope, but a 81-74 quarterfinal loss to Virginia sealed their fate. Bracketologists had them as a safe 10 seed mid-February; by Selection Sunday, the committee slotted them into the First Four as one of the last at-large teams in. It’s a far cry from the projections, but it evokes memories of 2024, when an 11-seeded Wolfpack rattled off nine straight wins to reach the Final Four. Can history repeat itself?

The Maui Rematch

Adding intrigue to this play-in game is the fact that NC State and Texas already met this season in the Maui Invitational’s fifth-place game on November 26th. That contest was a high-scoring affair, with Texas holding on for a 102-97 victory in Lahaina. The Wolfpack, then ranked No. 23, nearly pulled off a comeback but faltered in the closing minutes.

The game started competitively, with the teams trading blows early. Texas built a 25-23 lead midway through the first half before exploding on a 20-7 run to go up 45-30. NC State chipped away, closing the half on a 7-2 spurt to trail 47-37 at the break. The second half was where the drama unfolded: The Wolfpack opened with a 16-7 surge, tying the game on a Paul McNeil Jr. three-pointer with 15:09 left. They even grabbed a brief 71-70 lead on an Alyn Breed layup at the 7:51 mark.

But Texas responded decisively. Led by Jordan Pope’s 28 points, the Longhorns ripped off a 10-0 run to reclaim control and never let NC State get closer than five points the rest of the way. Texas shot a blistering 50% from three (16-of-32), dominating in transition with 24 fast-break points to NC State’s seven. The Wolfpack owned the paint (46-20 edge) but couldn’t overcome the perimeter barrage or their own 28-of-34 free-throw performance from Texas.

Standout performances defined the night. For NC State, Copeland exploded for a career-high 28 points on 10-of-14 shooting, adding six assists. Lubin contributed 23 points and nine rebounds, while McNeil added 20 points, including three triples. It was the first time in over two decades that three Wolfpack players scored 20+ in a game. Texas, meanwhile, leaned on Pope’s scoring and efficient outside shooting to hold on.

How the New Matchup Might Play Out: A Battle of Slumping Squads Seeking a Spark

Both teams enter with similar narratives: late-season struggles that landed them in this precarious spot. Texas, under Sean Miller in his first year, finished 18-14 overall and 9-9 in the SEC, good for 10th place. Like NC State, the Longhorns slumped down the stretch, losing four of their last five, including a blown-out loss to Arkansas and an overtime heartbreaker at home to Oklahoma (88-85). Their résumé includes a notable win over South Carolina but lacks the high-end victories.

This rematch could hinge on the same factors as Maui: perimeter defense and transition play. Texas remains a threat from deep, with Pope (averaging 17.5 points) as the catalyst. If they replicate their 50% three-point shooting, NC State could be in trouble, especially if the Wolfpack’s late-season defensive woes (allowing 80+ points in five of their final seven losses) persist. On the flip side, NC State’s is coming of a good win over Pitt in the ACC Tournament’s 2nd round and a near upset of UVA in the quarters. NC State has seemingly broken out of whatever funk they were in.

Expect a close, high-scoring affair again. NC State is a slight favorite (listed at -1.5), buoyed by their ACC Tournament grit and the motivational pull of their 2024 run. For Texas, it’s about redemption after a frustrating SEC debut season for Sean Miller.

If NC State advances, a matchup with BYU awaits—a team with strong guard play and a penchant for up-tempo basketball (not a bad matchup). But first, the Wolfpack must exorcise the Maui demons. In a tournament built on surprises, don’t bet against the 11-seed magic striking twice for NC State. The path to another Final Four starts in Dayton—or ends there.

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We will break down this matchup and look ahead at the rest of the West region in the near future.