Breaking down NC State’s Current Roster: Small Forward

We took a look at the roster so far and went position by position on our Podcast, looking at what NC State has and what they need. Here is our segment on SF:

Let’s move to small forward. Right now, NC State has the three spot wide open. If you want to plug someone in there, it’s R.J. Keene, the Boise State commit they just got.

I love Keene. If you’re not a hooper and didn’t grow up playing basketball, you might look at his stats and wonder what NC State is doing. But if you hoop and you’ve played a lot of basketball, you know the RJ Keene type. This is a guy you want on your team all the time.

He’s diving for loose balls, defending, locking people down, and rebounding. His motor never stops. He’s just a winner. He’s not taking bad shots, he’s playing within the offense, and he’s moving the ball so it doesn’t get stuck. I love this pickup, and I’m sure they didn’t pay a ton for him.

When you look at his advanced metrics, he just gives you so much. In this NIL era, locker rooms can be tricky. Everybody thinks they’re “the guy” and wants to get theirs. A good coach can hold it together, but there’s always a risk of someone becoming a cancer in the locker room.

That’s why adding a guy like RJ Keene is huge. Whether he’s coming off the bench or playing as a sixth or seventh option, you want someone who loves his role as a role player. On his social media profile, he literally has the words “glue guy.” He might be saying it as a joke, but you can tell he knows his role, embraces it, and works hard within it. This is a great pickup.

That said, if RJ Keene is your only small forward, NC State is in trouble. You need a shooter who can spread the floor or score the basketball. Keene will probably start some games, earn minutes, and NC State fans are going to love him. They’ll sell a lot of Keene jerseys. I can guarantee that.

To shore up this position, landing Paul McNeil would be massive. But this is where things get complicated. The NCAA just pushed forward the five-and-five rule, but they said the seniors from this past year won’t get that extra year retroactively. That matters for NC State because they haven’t locked up Paul McNeil yet.

We’ve been told multiple times over the past week that he was very likely about to commit, but right now it doesn’t look great. With this new rule in place and seniors suddenly back on the market, teams like LSU (under Will Wade) and others who were building rosters expecting the rule to pass are now scrambling. A lot of the top portal talent is already gone, so expect heavy tampering. Coaches like Wade, Calipari at Arkansas, and others will be throwing massive money at the remaining top players.

Unfortunately, one of those top remaining players is Paul McNeil Jr. I think there are going to be some astronomical offers coming in. I don’t know how much NC State has left in the tank. They had a big amount set aside for him, but that might look small compared to what some of these other schools with deep pockets are willing to spend.

I’m a little worried. I don’t know what they’re going to do. But I feel like Gainey, his staff, and Patrick Stacy in the GM role will find somebody. The problem is, there’s not another Paul McNeil out there.

UPDATE: NC State held a Zoom call with Abdi Bashir Jr from Kansas State. 

Bashir averaged 13.2 points per game this past season, shooting 42.1% from the field. The number that catches your eye is his 44.4% three-point percentage (151 attempts). Bashir’s season was cut short this year after suffering a stress fracture in his foot in January, which ended up requiring season-ending surgery. As a result, he only played in 18 games.

Bashir and Paul McNeil profile very similar. Both are tall shooters who have nearly unlimited range. Both shot well over 40% from 3, and both aren’t going to be known for their defense. Bashir grades a little lower than Paul across the board and only has a leg up on him in 3pt % and assist rate. Meanwhile, Paul shot way more volume, was actually a better rebounder, and even was a slightly better defender (but remember, Bashir’s season was cut short). That said, Paul McNeil is not currently committed, and there are rumors that he’s being offered NIL amounts that are well out of most teams’ (including NC State’s) range.

Paul, however, is still not out of the picture, but this meeting with Bashir tells you that they are making plans in case that ends up being the situation.