NC State Wolfpack vs. Xavier Musketeers
9:10pm | Dayton, OH | TRU TV

What a roller coaster ride of a week it’s been. State has gone from definitely out of the tournament, to maybe in, to probably out, to in, and now we’re only hours away from what we’ve all been waiting for.

When the Wolfpack meet the Musketeers tonight it’s going to be interesting to see who is in the stands. Xavier is about an hour from the stadium, so you’d think the place is going to feel like a home game for these guys, but you may be wrong. The game is on Dayton’s campus and Dayton hates Xavier. Actually, in the shoot around yesterday tons of Dayton fans came out just to heckle the Muskateers. For the Wolfpack , they probably shouldn’t care since they’ve done pretty much all of their damage on the road this season.

Yesterday we previewed Xavier. Here you have a team that on paper looks really good and actually when you watch them they look really good as well. They play really hard and really work on defense and rebounding, but like NC State, they have trouble scoring from the perimeter. Xavier doesn’t really have great shooters and they don’t always take great shots, but they are pretty efficient in the paint (thanks to their ability to to the rim off the dribble or gobble up Oboards on misses). They also are undisciplined with the basketball and really can lose their way if you put some serious defensive pressure on them.

With that said, let’s talk about what State will have to do to beat them….

Get Warren going early
When you watch this team, you see that they have a lot in common with NC State. They both struggle shooting the ball from deep, they both get a little flustered when the pressure gets turned up and they both play together with a lot of heart. However, the one thing that State has that Xavier doesn’t is TJ Warren. Right now I think Warren is playing the best basketball of his season. In fact, you could say that about a number of guys such as Cat Barber or Jordan Vandenberg. It’s going to be very important that  these guys (but especially Warren) don’t come out too antsy or excited. They need to come out and be ready. State will need a huge game from TJ if they want to advance.

Warren will likely draw Justin Martin who is Xaviers best matchup at PF. He is 6’6, 205, so right off the bat Warren has 2 inches and 10 pounds on Martin (who is not known as some defensive stopper). If you want to see how the Muskateers deal with a scorer, you can go back and watch the Creighton game where they had to deal with Doug McDermott. They had no idea how to guard the guy. They had probably 3 or 4 different guys try to stop him, but nobody could. He finished with 32 in their last meeting.

Protect the basketball
Lewis and Barber have been so good lately about maximizing NC State possessions. They have protected the ball and they’ve kept TOs to single digits on most nights. That needs to continue because that is where State has a huge advantage. Xavier is off and on with turnovers, but has the tendency to get real loose with the basketball. If State can pressure them they’ll give it up, but on the other hand you know Xavier is coming with very good pressure and will really be trying to frustrate the Wolfpack PGs.

Tough, Physical Rebounding
This Xavier team is strong and is real hungry on the boards. Their ability to dominate the glass is pretty much their calling card, but NC State is no slouch in the paint either. Actually, State has really competed in the rebounding column against almost all of their opponents. With Washington and Freeman attacking the glass with reckless abandon, State usually comes out a little better than people expect.

Hit your shots
Now this is the hard one. State hasn’t shot the ball well from 3pt range all season. Outside of Ralston Turner and the occasional perimeter outburst by Warren, State has done almost all their damage from inside the arc. BUT one thing people haven’t been paying attention to is the fact that all of the sudden Barber and Lewis can shoot again. Cat is 11-18 (61%) over his past 5 games, while Lewis is 6-12 (50%) from 3pt range over his past 5 games. He actually has hit two 3s in 3 of his last 5 games. This is going to need to keep up against Xavier, because those shots are going to be open. Xavier plays a form of the packline defense where they really pack in their man defense and make you beat them from 3 pt range. Turner should be able to help extend that and Xavier is going to have to come out a little bit more to deny Warren the ball, so I wonder if they’ll really be able to see much benefit form it. Either way, a great shooting night from State will put them in the next round.

Come hungry
I don’t think this will be a problem This team has a us against the world mentality and I’m sure with all the ‘NC State shouldn’t have gotten in.” talk that there is some nice bulletin board material to put a chip on their shoulder. This is a young group that is hyped up right now. If they can corral that energy and focus it in the right areas, State could survive and advance against the Musketeers.

Check out this video over at WRAL: