BY THE NUMBERS: Which starting 5 should Keatts be going with? We break down the metrics of each lineup

The big discussion lately within the NC State fanbase has been about the NC State lineup and minute distributions. Some people want to see more Breon Pass. Others want to see Styles and Parker at the 3 and 4. While others, like us, want to see a lot more Ismael Diouf at the 4. Some want Hill at the point, and some want to keep trying Middlebrooks and Huntley-Hatfield.

You could argue these things ad nauseam, and while that’s always fun, we wanted to dive into the stats to see which lineup gives you the best combination of stats per minute. So we took 5 potential lineups and put them to the test.

First, let’s look at the lineups…

1. The Keatts Classic – The lineup Keatts runs out most of them time
O’Connell
Hill
Taylor
Styles
Middlebrooks

2. The Athletic Tweeners – MOC is out. Hill at PG. Parker Jr/Styles at 3 and 4.
Hill
Taylor
Styles
Parker Jr.
Middlbrooks

3. The Diouf – Hill at PG. Diouf at the 4. Styles at the 3.
Hill
Taylor
Styles
Diouf
Middlbrooks

4. The Twin Towers – MOC at PG. Both bigs in.
O’Connell
Taylor
Styles
Huntley-Hatfield
Middlbrooks

5. The Breon – Pass at PG over MOC
Pass
Hill
Taylor
Styles
Middlbrooks

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We looked at points, rebounds, offensive rebounds, turnovers, assists, blocks and steals and calculated how each players is performing on a per-minute basis. Then we took the average of each line-up.

Here is how the lineups ranked in each category…

Points Per Minute
1. The Diouf (.40 – tie)
2. The Breon (.40 – tie)
3. The Keatts Classic (.39 – tie)
4. The Twin Towers (.39 – tie)
5. The Athletic Tweener (.38)

Rebounds Per Minute
1. The Diouf (.17 – tie)
2. The Athletic Tweeners (.17 – tie)
3. The Twin Towers (.16)
4. The Keatts Classic (.15 – tie)
5. The Breon (.15 – tie)

Offensive Rebounds Per Minute
1. The Diouf (.07)
2. The Twin Towers (.06)
3. The Keatts Classic (.05 – tie)
4. The Athletic Tweeners (.05 – tie)
5. The Breon (.05 – tie)

Turnovers Per Minute
1. The Diouf (.04 – tie)
2. The Athletic Tweeners (.04 – tie)
3. The Keatts Classic (.05 – tie)
4. The Breon (.05 – tie)
5. The Twin Towers (.05 – tie)

Assists Per Minute
1. The Keatts Classic (.07 – tie)
2. The Twin Towers (.07 – tie)
3. The Breon (.06)
4. The Diouf (.05)
5. The Athletic Tweeners (.05)

Blocks Per Minute
1. The Athletic Tweeners (.03 – tie)
2. The Breon (.03 – tie)
3. The Diouf (.025 – tie)
4. The Keatts Classic (.025 – tie)
5. The Twin Towers (.02)

Steals Per Minute
1. The Keatts Classic (.03 – tie)
2. The Athletic Tweeners (.03 – tie)
3. The Breon (.03 – tie)
4. The Twin Towers (.03 – tie)
5. The Diouf (.025)

ACC Total +/-
1. The Athletic Tweeners (+16)
2. The Diouf (+2)
3. The Keatts Classic (-2)
4. The Breon (-14)
5. The Twin Towers (-20)

The Takeaway:
I think this tells you a few things, but not everything. For instance, I think some would be surprised at how the lineup with Ismael Diouf at the 4 and Hill at the point is both the best in terms of points per minute, rebounds per minute, and offensive rebounds per minute. That lineup is also second in overall ACC +/-.

However, that Diouf/Hill lineup doesn’t do as well in terms of steals or assists. That would be a lineup that plays a little more in the paint, a little slower paces, and a little more fundamental. I think you’d need to make sure that this lineup’s defense is packed in a bit more as well.

The Athletic Tweener lineup with Styles and Parker Jr at the 3 and 4, with Hill at the 1 is interesting as well. They struggle in Points Per Minute and offensive rebounding, as you would expect, but they are dominating the ACC +/- column. It’s basically trading the undersized athleticism of Parker Jr, for the taller Diouf who may rebound better, and protect the rim better but isn’t able to play as fast as this group would want to play.

That said, I think these are the two lineups that seem to be grading out the best, yet they are the two lineups that Kevin Keatts has not yet tried. It will be interesting to see if he starts experimenting with these types of lineups in the coming weeks.