Contrary to popular belief, NC State’s defense has been statistically ELITE since Wade’s ‘Hostile Takeover’

I always know it’s time for an analytics deep-dive when the prevailing social media narrative doesn’t pass the eye test.

NC State’s defensive approach has been the topic of conversation on X and Facebook, a few podcasts, and even some local media sites. But I’ve been pretty darn impressed with NC State’s defense ever since Wade’s self-proclaimed ‘Hostile Takeover.’ So much so, that I wanted to make sure the numbers backed me up.

Let’s start with where this idea originates from…

NC State didn’t have a great defensive showing in Maui. Two of their worst-rated games on the defensive end came in that tournament. And let’s be fair, these were the first real tests that this NC State team has faced.

At the time, it was pretty clear that NC State needed to shore up its defense. The numbers agreed.

Against Seton Hall, the Pack graded out with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number of 111.6. 

Against Texas, they graded out with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number of 128.6.

If those stats mean nothing to you, let me define that statistic and then put it into context.

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADJD) measures how many points a team would allow per 100 possessions against an average Division I offense (on a neutral court). It accounts for the strength of the opponents’ offenses faced—if a team plays strong offenses and allows fewer points than expected, their adjusted defensive efficiency improves (a lower number is better, since fewer points allowed means better defense)

Now, let’s put those numbers into context.

Right now, if your team has a season ADJD below 98, then you are an elite defense. Meaning you are in the Top-25 best defense teams in the country.

If you are at, say,  111.6 for the season, you’d be ranked 267th out of 365.

Or if you are at, say, 128.6 for the season, you’d be ranked dead last in college basketball.

So for context, those two outings in Maui were stinkers, and while they turned around and had an ok defensive outing at Auburn, Wade still wasn’t happy.

This is why he felt it necessary to go into a ‘hostile takeover’ of his own team to right the ship.

There were early morning practices, there were black eyes, there was a TON of running… but in the end, did it work?

Well, to find that out, let’s check out ADJD for the past 3 games since returning home and going through the ‘hostile takeover.’

UNC Asheville: 98.7
Nobody was talking about the defense in this game, but it graded out good. In fact, Mike Morrell of UNC-A has been there for 8 seasons. Of those 215 games he’s coached, his team’s 37% from the floor was one of the lowest since he’s been there.

Liberty: 67.3
Liberty came into this game ranked 3rd nationally in eFG% and one of the best 3pt shooting teams in the country. They have one of the best distributors nationally with Zach Cleveland (averaging almost 9 assists per game) and the 2nd best 3pt shooter in the country in Brett Decker (who came in shooting 58% from long range). They were held to 35% shooting and 21% from long range.

Kansas: 96.2
Kansas was held to the lowest halftime output of their season (30) and only scored 66 in regulation. Only #2 Duke and #6 UCconn were able to do that. Kansas shot 43% from the floor, which is below their season average.

That’s a pretty freaking miraculous turnaround.

That’s an average ADJD of 87.4 over the past 3 games. 

Now remember, ADJD stands for ADJUSTED defensive efficiency. The ‘adjusted’ part is important because it takes into account how good your opponent is.

Again, let’s put this in context.

If NC State were to have an 87.4 ADJD for the season, they would be the BEST defense in the country. (Michigan’s season ADJD is 90.2)

Now, NC State will almost certainly not end the season as the best defensive team in the country, and that Liberty game may end up being a big outlier, but even if you focus on UNC-A and Kansas, you still are averaging 97.45 for your ADJD over those 2 games.

If NC State could continue to replicate that level of defense for the season, they would slot in as the 22nd-ranked defense nationally.

The point here is, until NC State starts reeling off wins, you’re going to see a lot of scapegoating, but make sure you’re paying attention to what’s really going on.

We just explained to you why, despite these losses, almost every ranking has NC State around the Top-30. The metrics we’re pointing out are part of the reason why.

The NC State defense is fine. The strategy they’ve been rolling out is sound (in fact, Bill Self was pretty complimentary of NC State’s defense, not allowing them to do anything they wanted to do.) and honestly we’re looking at a scenario where if the Pack can just stay the course, clean up some execution on back side rotation/close outs, and just knock down a few open shots, these first few weeks of adversity will be far off in the rear view.