How does NC State match up with UNC, minus Caleb Wilson? We ran the numbers.

NC State is set to take on rival UNC on Tuesday night, and this game is chock-full of storylines, with the biggest being the absence of Caleb Wilson.

The star freshman has been the catalyst for a UNC team that ranks 11th in the nation. He leads them in minutes (31.3), points (19.8), rebounds (9.4), offensive boards (2.8), steals (1.5), and blocks per game (1.4).

But thanks to a broken hand suffered during the Miami game last week, it’s almost certain he will miss the NC State matchup on Tuesday.

So what does that mean? What does UNC look like without Wilson?

Well, we got our first glimpse this past weekend when UNC took down Pitt by 13 at home. The difference we saw was a lot more Jarin Stevenson, a 6’10 junior who dropped 19 points on 6-7 shooting and 3-4 from 3pt range.

Stevenson played his first two seasons at Alabama, where he never averaged more than 5.5 points or 3.4 rebounds per game. Now he’s being asked to fill the shoes of a Top-5 NBA pick. But so far, so good.

That said, Pitt isn’t giving us a great barameter.

They have lost 8 of their last 9 by an average of 16 points per game. They are losing a ton and getting blown out nearly every time.

What will UNC look like without Wilson against a longer, stronger, more talented Wolfpack team?

Well, we obviously won’t find out until the tip on Tuesday night, but we can check the statistics to give us a hint.

First, let’s create context, by looking at NC State vs. UNC analytics prior to the Heels losing Caleb Wilson. We’ll focus on offense first …

Before the Wilson injury, these teams were incredibly close offensively. Efficiency was nearly identical, FG was close, and neither turned the ball over. UNC got the FT line more (classic), UNC was slightly better on the offensive glass and NC State was better from 3, while UNC was better from 2.

But it becomes a much different story when Wilson is not on the floor for UNC.

We ran the stats again, but minus Wilson’s season contributions, and numbers tanked for Carolina.

Adjusted offensive efficiency dropped 17 spots.

On the efficiency metrics side, effective field goal percentage (EFG%) declined 21 spots in the rankings.

Turnover percentage (TO%) dropped 15 spots.

Offensive rebound percentage (OR%) took a significant hit, falling 176 spots.

Free-throw rate (FTR) also decreased sharply by 154 spots.

However, three-point shooting percentage (3pt%) improved, rising 31 spots in the rankings, while two-point shooting percentage (2pt%) worsened, dropping 23 spots.

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I think the biggest takeaway here is that UNC loses a guy who doesn’t just do the big things, but also loses the guy who is doing all the little things as well. The drop in offensive rebounding rate is huge, and that’s one area that NC State was going to struggle against UNC. Now, they do bring in another 6’10 guy, but he’s certainly not as dynamic and fast-twitch as Wilson is.

They also lose the one guy they have who can attack the basket with efficiency. Yes, Seth Tremble will attempt to do that, but NC State has the horses to limit him. Wilson was going to be a huge mismatch for the Wolfpack.

If you’re wondering what UNC looks like before and after the Wilson injury, here’s that comparison side by side.

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What about defense?

Well, that’s a little harder to predict, since there aren’t as many tracked personal statistics on that side of the floor. But here are a few areas it will have an impact.

Wilson was leading the team, averaging 1.4 blocks per game. Jarin Stevenson, who is taller but less athletic, is averaging just .5 per game.

Wilson was leading the team in rebounding with 9.4 per game. He’s second in total defensive rebounds with 158, trailing Henri Veesaar by just 2. After those two guys, Jarin Stevenson is next at just 3.6 rebounds per game. He has just 59 defensive boards in 593 minutes (he’s 3rd in minutes for UNC). Stevenson played a team-high 36 minutes and only grabbed 3 boards.

The scary thing for UNC here is that in their first game without Wilons, while they did win handily, they lost the rebounding battle to Pitt 32-27. (note: They also were missing Veesaar)

UNC hasn’t lost a rebounding battle to a team of Pitt’s caliber all season. In fact, only Michigan State, Virginia, and Duke beat them on the boards before Wilson’s injury. UNC lost the battle vs. Miami (and lost the game – although Wilson was playing hurt), and then lost the battle to Pitt on Valentine’s day.

Either way, there’s no doubt this is still going to be a very tough matchup, but if Caleb Wilson is, in fact, out for the game, NC State’s chances increase dramatically.