NC State vs. #16 UNC: What are the “Experts” Predicting?

NC State will host rival No. 16 North Carolina tonight at 7 PM inside the Lenovo Center.

The Wolfpack enters as the favorite, but the national prediction models and betting analysts aren’t exactly singing in unison. Some see NC State protecting home court. Others are eyeing the points with Carolina. A few are bracing for a tight, high-scoring classic.

Here’s how the “experts” see it playing out:

Expert Predictions

KenPom: NC State 81 UNC 78
Bart Torvik: NC State 81 UNC 78
Action Network: Take NC State at -7
USAToday: NC State 81 UNC 78, take UNC at +6.5, take the Over at 158.5
CBS Sports: Take the Under at 158.5
Sports Gambler: Take UNC at +6.5
Odd Shark: UNC will win and cover the spread, total goes Under
ESPN: NC State has a 63.3% chance of winning
Dimers: NC State 80 UNC 72

What Stands Out

The advanced metrics love NC State at home. KenPom and Torvik are in near lockstep projecting a three-point Wolfpack win in the low 80s.

But when it comes to the spread? That’s where things get interesting.

Several outlets believe the number may be too high, leaning toward UNC to cover even in a close loss. Odd Shark goes even further, calling for a Tar Heel upset.

As for the total, analysts are completely split. Some see pace and points. Others expect rivalry-game nerves to slow things down.

One thing is clear:

• Vegas expects fireworks.
• Analytics expect a tight finish.