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INSIDE THE METRICS: What value has Justin Gainey brought to Rick Barnes’ Tennessee Vols?

Lou Pascucci

Published

3 months ago

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With Schertz reportedly withdrawing his name from consideration, the job search seems to focus in former NC State point guard, and Tennessee associate head coach Justin Gainey.

What would NC State be getting in Justin Gainey? Well, we broke that down earlier today right here. But we didn’t dive deep into the stats. Let’s do that now.

We’ve taken deep metrics from Gainey’s 6 years with Tennesee, averaged them out, and put them up against the 3 years prior to his arrival. Here is what we found.

1. Efficiency & Four Factors

Category Prior to Gainey (Avg) Gainey Years (Avg) Change / Edge
Adj. Offensive Efficiency 115.1 114.8 Almost identical (Gainey -0.3)
Adj. Defensive Efficiency 94.8 90.3 Gainey +4.5 (clear improvement)
eFG% Offense 51.6% 51.0% Prior slightly better
eFG% Defense 46.9% 45.5% Gainey better
TO% Offense 18.1% 17.0% Gainey better (lower turnovers)
OR% Offense 31.8% 35.5% Gainey +3.7% (big rebounding jump)
FTR Offense 35.4% 33.5% Prior slightly better

 Defensive efficiency improved noticeably during the Gainey years (from 94.8 → 90.3). Offensive rebounding also jumped significantly. Offense stayed roughly the same level.

2. Shooting Stats

Category Prior to Gainey Gainey Years Change / Edge
3P% Offense 35.3% 34.0% Prior better
2P% Offense 50.9% 51.0% Virtually identical
FT% Offense 75.5% 72.7% Prior better
Block% Defense 14.4% 12.5% Prior blocked more shots

3-point shooting and free-throw shooting were slightly better before Gainey. Defensive block rate also dropped a bit in the Gainey era.

3. Stylistic / Pace Stats

Category Prior to Gainey Gainey Years Change / Edge
3P Rate Offense 34.7% 38.6% Gainey +3.9% (more 3s)
Assist Rate Offense 61.4% 61.8% Almost identical
Adj. Tempo 66.1 66.3 Virtually the same pace

Tennessee took slightly more threes during the Gainey years while maintaining a similar assist rate and pace.

Overall Impact?

ADVANTAGES during Gainey years:

  • Defense improved by ~4.5 points in adjusted efficiency. This is the clearest statistical upgrade.
  • Offensive rebounding jumped significantly (+3.7%).
  • Fewer turnovers on offense.
  • Slightly higher 3-point attempt rate.

ADVANTAGES during the Pre-Gainey years:

  • Slightly higher 3P% and FT%.
  • Better block% on defense.
  • Offensive efficiency basically unchanged.

Bottom line: The most noticeable statistical impact while Justin Gainey was on staff was a clear improvement in defensive efficiency and a big boost in offensive rebounding. The offense stayed at a similar high level but became more reliant on the 3-ball and second-chance points. Overall, Tennessee looked like a more complete and defensively stronger team during the Gainey years.

Our Take: Gainey is the defensive coordinator for Rick Barnes, and if a likely Hall of Fame coach is willing to trust his defense with you, you must be good. The stats say that’s the case, and NC State fans would finally have a team willing to lock somebody down defensively after years of porous defenses dating back to the Sidney Lowe era.

If hired, Gainey should be paired with an offensive coordinator-type assistant and a strong analytics team to create the most complete team possible.

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