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Wolfpack Basketball Notes: 10/29

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– Exhibition game this Wednesday 10/30
The Pack will take on UNC Pembroke at Reynolds Coliseum on Wednesday night at 7pm. Admission is free if you bring an unwrapped toy, which will be given to a local chapter of Toys for Tots.  The game will be your first chance to see State face off against a real opponent. It will also be the first chance to get some real questions answered. What is the starting 5? Which freshman have earned the most minutes? Who will be the 3rd scoring option?

– Warren and Lewis worked hard this offseason. 
We reported earlier in the summer that Tyler Lewis had put on considerable ‘good’ weight and that TJ Warren was working hard on thinning up. According to the WRAL, Lewis gained 15 pounds of muscle and Warren lost about 20lbs this offseason. This is really good news for State, because these guys need to be on the court for 35 min per game. These are the two guys that need to be in elite physical condition. Lewis’ game will never be about quicks, but added muscle and strength at the PG position goes a LONG way. In the ACC, refs allow defenders to ride the PG’s hip on drives. Just the very smallest amount off pressure on the hip can throw a drive to the basket off-course. This is why you usually see smaller, weaker guards flail on drives to try to draw attention to the slight contact, but rarely ever get the call. The reason you see them get so upset about it is because they’re used to getting that call in high school. Think Javi Gonzalez and Tyler Lewis at the beginning of last year. Added strength will allow Lewis to fight through this type of contact and get to where he needs to go against stronger guards. He also has added muscle to his shoulders, another must for ACC guards. This allows Lewis to muscle through contact on drives and initiate contact on contested layups.

As for Warren, the thinner frame will definitely help him get to the hoop quicker and attack the basket with a lot more ferocity, however I think Warren needs to continue to build muscle and keep his current weight on if he wants to be as effective as he wast last year in the post. Warren is never going to be a bouncy wingman who can take you off the dribble, beat you with his speed and dunk over your help D. He is very reliant on his footwork, his body control and his knowledge of positioning on the court. It’s easy to lose weight and tough to keep on muscle with all the cardio these guys are getting. It’s going to be important for them to stay in the weight room, drink a ton of water and eat lots and lots of lean protein throughout the season.

-Anya working harder and harder to get on the court
We were a little disappointed that Anya showed up to State a little overweight, and then we weren’t that impressed with his conditioning at the Red/White scrimmage. However, that might all be in the past for Beejay. We’ve been told that Anya has been the first one in the gym lately, showing up before many players wake up to get to the Dail Center and train. This morning, Beejay clocked in at 6:45am for his morning workout. If this becomes a season-long habit, you might see the big freshman really start to push his way into the lineup earlier than we thought. It’s always great to see a young kid with a hard work ethic and a great attitude and that’s what Anyay is starting to show. Maybe he’s the (eventual) answer to Richard Howell after all.

-Real leaders. A new concept for NC State. 
I found this article, from over a week ago, very interesting.  It’s a N&O piece by Joe Giglio that goes back and tries to really understand what happened to last years team. We’ve talked about it on here at times, but you never really want to call out a player in the middle of a season. These guys work so hard and really do try their best, so we try to respect that in our analysis. Remember, these are 19 year old kids we’re talking about.

With that said, this article was spot on. It had great quotes about the dynamics of the team that often isn’t talked about during the season. It had a lot of truths in it, and honestly backed up what a lot of people on the message boards said everyday. Last year, the teams problem was obviously the lack of leadership. There were giant egos that were not ‘team first’ and there were guys with alternative agendas.

No disrespect to CJ Leslie, but the guy wasn’t a true leader and according to this article the players looked to him for leadership. We hinted at this numerous times last season and felt like that teams identity was lost because of it. Again, no disrespect to Leslie, but a true team leader needs to be more in tune with his emotions and with the personalities of his teammates. He needs to know what the coach wants and what he is thinking without having to  look to the sideline every time down. Leadership isn’t something you just turn on one day, it’s something that you’re born with and personality trait that is nurtured throughout your youth. This year NC State finally has a real leader. Tyler Lewis may not be the oldest or wisest player on this roster, but he has the ability to lead. He is vocal, he is smart and he is not a me-first player. I think for the first time in a long, long time, you’re going to see a team that loves to play together and a group that has a ‘me against the world attitude.’ I, for one, am excited about that.

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NC State Basketball

Wolferetti: Feed me my crow. NC State lost to Creighton and I’m here to break it down (and admit I was wrong)

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I was wrong.

I thought this matchup was a good one for NC State. I watched a lot of Creighton this year and to me, they looked like a team that NC State could roll over. Let me explain why.

I knew a few things. I knew Nembhard was a PG that could get a little out of control if sped up. I knew with a little defense and physicality, Sheierman could be made uncomfortable. I knew Kalkbrenner was a good defender but was going to sink on the pick-and-roll to protect the basket.

Joiner’s pull up just wouldn’t fall

I figured that Joiner, the pull-up king would be taking that DJ Burns screen, getting to the middle, and pulling up as Kalkbrenner sank. I figured Smith would exploit this as well. Well, turns out Joiner was off and couldn’t get his pull-up game going and Smith, well yeah Smith did exploit this pretty well.

Burns didn’t look like Burns

The other thing I’d figure would happen is that I thought DJ Burns would really frustrate Kalkbrenner. If you’ve looked at games where Kalkbrenner had to face a really good, physical back-to-the-basket big man, those bigs usually had pretty good games in the scoring column.  I honestly don’t understand what happened to Burns in this one. Sure he got a few stupid early fouls, but before he even picked up a foul he looked out of it. With no double teams coming, Burns is usually calculated, slowly backing you down and hitting you with a flurry of head fakes, pump fakes or spins. If the big doesn’t bite, Burns can fade away, go with a contested hook shot, or pass out.

In this game, Burns looked sped up for some reason. The first time he got the ball he quickly backed in and threw up a hook that rattled out. Not awful, but usually you see him probe a little more. Then the next time he didn’t even look for contact, instead, he threw up a little floater that didn’t fall. While neither were awful shots, both were uncharacteristic of Burns. On top of those things, he looked absolutely gassed within minutes of coming in. My guess is that it was the altitude, but either way, it took a toll on him.

Whatever it was, it had him frustrated and he had two really bad fouls where he just shoved Kalkbrenner (he also had a phantom foul that was ridiculous). That said, it just wasn’t his night and this made NC State a lot more one-dimensional.

Casey Morsell came to play, but this NC State roster just wasn’t built to get a guy like him going, which is a shame. Jarkel Joiner was a huge reason why NC State got to where they got. His scoring ability, his speed and his toughness and leadership skill were huge. But Joiner is a scoring guard, and great basketball teams need POINT guards.

What is a point guard, and why can’t we have one?

A point guard isn’t just a guy who dribbles it down. It’s a guy who understands the games within the games. Guys who dictate pace, call plays (sets) and are essentially coaches on the floor. NC State and Kevin Keatts never had that this season, and while you can get a long way with scoring guards and good big men, you’ll never compete for anything of worth until you prioritize the skill set of a true point guard. I think that has been NC State’s problem for years, and I find it kind of insane that coach after coach falls into this idea of having a scoring guard play as a PG for more offense to get on the court.

This is no shot at Jarkel, either. The guy was one of my favorite players to watch on this team, but it just is what it is. He is a scoring guard who happens to be slotting in at PG. When you see Keatts bring in a guy whose priority is getting his guys open and dictating pace, then you can start to believe that this program may be close to arriving. Until then, sneaking into the tournament and hoping guys get hot hands is as good as it gets.

Look at Kihei Clark (Virginia’s PG). I know it’s not a great time to be talking about Clark, whose errant pass ended up losing the game for Virginia on Thursday, but look at Clark’s build.5’10, 170lbs. Look at his stats. Mid-30s shooting % from 3. Hight 70s from the FT line. The guy is nothing special when it comes to the numbers, but he’s a leader and he distributes the basketball to the right guys at the right time. Tony Bennett has started Clark for 4 years despite the fact that he’s coaching a team that is always in the running to win the ACC and won a national championship less than 5 years ago.  He could replace Clark with an elite, tall, athlete at any moment. But he doesn’t. Why? Because he understands what I’m talking about. It’s a puzzle that coaches need to put together, and one piece of that puzzle is a guy like this.

I was wrong about this game. I thought things would play out differently. They didn’t. I’m not blaming anyone in particular, but the makeup of this team vs. the makeup of teams that play deep into March are different. Maybe this is step one to getting there. We’ll have to see how the roster shapes up next season.

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VIDEO: NC State falls to Creighton 72-63 in first round of NCAA Tournament | Extended Highlights & Box Score

NC State came out flat, DJ Burns looked gassed, and for the most part, the Pack looked shell-shocked vs. Creighton from the opening tip. However, Terquavion Smith is excluded from all of that. He was amazing and in what was likely his final game at NC State, he kept the Pack afloat, dropping 32 points on 12-25 shooting. In the end, it wasn’t enough as their big man, 7’1 Ryan Kalkbrenner went for 31.

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NC State came out flat, DJ Burns looked gassed, and for the most part, the Pack looked shell-shocked vs. Creighton from the opening tip. However, Terquavion Smith is excluded from all of that. He was amazing and in what was likely his final game at NC State, he kept the Pack afloat, dropping 32 points on 12-25 shooting. In the end, it wasn’t enough as their big man, 7’1 Ryan Kalkbrenner went for 31.

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VIDEO: Smith, Joiner and Keatts talk in postgame press conference

Terquavion Smith, Jarkel Joiner and Kevin Keatts meet with the media after 72-63 loss to Creighton in the NCAA Tournament.

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Terquavion Smith, Jarkel Joiner and Kevin Keatts meet with the media after 72-63 loss to Creighton in the NCAA Tournament.

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Wolferetti: 3 reasons why NC State is going to win today

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God bless these guys over here at PI. I submitted this article to them this morning and got this back.

“Joey, this is a good piece, but are you sure you want to come out and say that NC State is going to win? Why not just do a ‘keys to the game.’ or something? Hedge your bets. Why are you always wanting to put your reputation on the line?”

To that I say, “Nah, I’m good. I want my reputation on the line. What fun is this if I’m not callin’ it like I see it?”

Look, they’ve been worried about me stating outlandish opinions before. Like when I said after game #1, after I first laid eye on this team, that it was going to be a team that will flirt with or get into the Top 25? I got hammered for that, but was I right? And today I’m back on my prediction tip, telling you that NC State will survive and advance. And here are my 3 reasons why.

1. Creighton hasn’t fared well against teams with great Turnover Margins.

If Creighton has a glaring weakness, it’s turnover margin.

NC State’s turnover margin ranks 16th in the NCAA. Creighton’s is a miserable 291st. This means Creighton turns the ball over a lot and doesn’t create many turnovers. Meanwhile, NC State is the exact opposite. They create a lot of turnovers and really protect the basketball. This statistic right here is going to play a major role. The Creighton guards, especially Nembhard, can get sped up, and when they do, they can get sloppy and out of control. Meanwhile, Joiner and Smith flourish at top speed.

Let’s look at the one team that Creighton lost to every time they played them (and played them multiple times). That team is Marquette.

What do Marquette and NC State have in common? Well, they are both Top 20 in the nation in Turnover Margin. Marquette ranks #3 in the NCAA while the Pack is 16th. Creighton turned it over 18 times in their first meeting at Marquette. The second time these two teams met, Creighton turned it over 15 times.

The other teams they faced in the Top 50 of Turnover Margin in the nation?

#39 Arizona State
#10 Texas

That’s it. And guess what, Creighton lost every single one of those games. They have yet to beat a team in the Top 50 in Turnover Margin.

Reminder. NC State ranks 16th.

2. Large, back-to-the-basket bigs have fared well against Creighton

6’9, 245lb, Adama Sanogo from UConn dropped 17 against them in a win.

6’9, 215lb, Oso Ighodaro from Marquette dropped 16 on them in their first meeting, and then 18 in their second.

6’7, 220lb, Bryce Hopkins from Providence scored 20 on them in both meetings. One of which was a win.

All of these guys are big, strong, back-to-the-basket bigs and all of them bullied their way to huge games again Creighton.

In all 3 instances, Creighton refused to double-team on most possessions and the big men ate. So how will they deal with a big that is bigger than any of these guys?

DJ Burns is 6’9, 275lbs and he’s going to be a focal point for NC State in this game. If Creighton opts to play Burns straight up, history says they are going to have a long night and Burn is going to have a big game.

3. Creighton hasn’t seen guards like Joiner and Smith

Sure Creighton has quick guards. Nembhard, the 6’0 PG rarely gets a matchup where he doesn’t have a quickness advantage. Today, against Joiner, he won’t have one. There is so much talk about Creighton’s guards bottling up their opponents, but watch them play and you’ll see that they simply haven’t had to face guys like Joiner or Smith. Creighton will allow the floor to be spread and will not fight against playing this game at a fast pace, and those are the types of games we’ve seen the NC State guards feast.

Creighton is a very good team. They have some very good pieces, but I just think they’ve found themselves in a matchup that isn’t very good for them despite being data-darlings. I could be wrong, but to me, this looks like a game where people are reading off statistics and making assumptions without watching film. Without looking at each team’s Achilles heel. And without really breaking down the matchups.

I think this is a really good matchup for the Pack and I think I’ll be back talking to you in about 24 hours looking at who the guys will play on Sunday.

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