NC State Wolfpack vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Time: 4:00pm
Location: Raleigh, NC
TV: ACCN
Line: UVA -1.5
NC State hosts UVA today at 4pm. This is a game that many wondered whether or not it’d be played due to the snow storm that hit Raleigh last night. However, without much ice on the roads, the game (at this point) goes on.
Virginia is 11-7 and 5-3 in the conference. They are coming off a 5 point win over Pitt after losing to Wake by 8. NC State meanwhile limps into this one, losers of 7 of their last 9.
The thing that kills you is that NC State is so close. They have now lost 10 games, 5 of those games have been 2 possession games or less. Another one of them went to overtime (vs. #1 Purdue). So 6 of their 10 losses have been 2 possession games or less at the end of regulation. Haters will ignore this, but this team is so much better than their record shows.
This team is playing so hard and really leaving it all on the floor, however, they are just falling short. Our guy, Joey Wolferetti, noted this in his recent article and put it on Keatts to make up for those few possessions per game by being proactive with his coaching moves.
What does that mean in this game…
Trim your rotation down and go with your best 5
We’re almost midway through the ACC season and we think it’s time that Keatts really focuses on keeping his best 5 guys on the floor. That means Seabron, Smith, Morsell, Hellems, and Dowuona. This team gives NC State the best chance to win on both ends of the floor. Every minute they are off the floor you, statistically, are giving up points.
Sure guys will get tired, but get them a breather and bring them back in. No more 8 minutes stretches without Morsell or with Smith on the bench. Morsell is now the 2nd best 3pt shooter on your team % wise. He’s ahead of Smith and just trailing Hellems for the top spot. On top of that, he’s your best defender BY FAR. Why is he only averaging 21 minutes per game? It can’t happen. He needs to be in there 35+ minutes, as does Seabron and Hellems).
It’s asking a lot of these guys, but the season is close to being lost. NC State desperately needs to go on a massive run to close out the season. It’s not out of the question seeing as they’ve been so close, so often. Keatts has left it up to the players to push harder and make the extra plays, but it hasn’t worked out. It’s time he take a little more control, and tightens the reigns by trimming his rotation.
Physicality will win this game
NC State has better players than UVA. They have better scorers, they’re more athletic and bigger across the board. But UVA is going to try to play physical with them. They are going to bump them off their lines every time they drive. They are going to collapse on drives and force you to shoot over them. They close out well, so shots will be contested.
NC State’s key is going to be to drive the ball with authority to the lane, draw the defenders and make plays. Whether that is finishing inside or kicking it out to opens shooters. Like we said, UVA closes out under control and they do so with a hand up. NC State needs to be catching and shooting with confidence. Looks aren’t going to be super clean and pump-fake-drives aren’t going to be there.
If NC State plays physical, they win this game.
UVA will try to take Seabron away
As you’ve seen the past few games, teams are keying on Seabron. They are daring him to shoot and they are all ready to help and take charges inside. He’s still making an impact, but he’s not able to have those 30+ point dominating performances like he was having. He’s going to have to rely on his teammates. Smith, Morsell and Hellems will be huge in this one.
Jayden Gardner will look to bully down low
NC State was trying to bring in Gardner from the transfer portal this offseason (ECU), but UVA landed him. He’s a bruiser and he’s having success in Virginia. He’s a versatile, super strong, forward who loves to body up on his way to the rim. He’s going to cause problems for State, but in this one, they can clamp down a little and help as Virginia lacks strong shooters from the perimeter (13th in the league).
