God bless these guys over here at PI. I submitted this article to them this morning and got this back.
“Joey, this is a good piece, but are you sure you want to come out and say that NC State is going to win? Why not just do a ‘keys to the game.’ or something? Hedge your bets. Why are you always wanting to put your reputation on the line?”
To that I say, “Nah, I’m good. I want my reputation on the line. What fun is this if I’m not callin’ it like I see it?”
Look, they’ve been worried about me stating outlandish opinions before. Like when I said after game #1, after I first laid eye on this team, that it was going to be a team that will flirt with or get into the Top 25? I got hammered for that, but was I right? And today I’m back on my prediction tip, telling you that NC State will survive and advance. And here are my 3 reasons why.
1. Creighton hasn’t fared well against teams with great Turnover Margins.
If Creighton has a glaring weakness, it’s turnover margin.
NC State’s turnover margin ranks 16th in the NCAA. Creighton’s is a miserable 291st. This means Creighton turns the ball over a lot and doesn’t create many turnovers. Meanwhile, NC State is the exact opposite. They create a lot of turnovers and really protect the basketball. This statistic right here is going to play a major role. The Creighton guards, especially Nembhard, can get sped up, and when they do, they can get sloppy and out of control. Meanwhile, Joiner and Smith flourish at top speed.
Let’s look at the one team that Creighton lost to every time they played them (and played them multiple times). That team is Marquette.
What do Marquette and NC State have in common? Well, they are both Top 20 in the nation in Turnover Margin. Marquette ranks #3 in the NCAA while the Pack is 16th. Creighton turned it over 18 times in their first meeting at Marquette. The second time these two teams met, Creighton turned it over 15 times.
The other teams they faced in the Top 50 of Turnover Margin in the nation?
#39 Arizona State
#10 Texas
That’s it. And guess what, Creighton lost every single one of those games. They have yet to beat a team in the Top 50 in Turnover Margin.
Reminder. NC State ranks 16th.
2. Large, back-to-the-basket bigs have fared well against Creighton
6’9, 245lb, Adama Sanogo from UConn dropped 17 against them in a win.
6’9, 215lb, Oso Ighodaro from Marquette dropped 16 on them in their first meeting, and then 18 in their second.
6’7, 220lb, Bryce Hopkins from Providence scored 20 on them in both meetings. One of which was a win.
All of these guys are big, strong, back-to-the-basket bigs and all of them bullied their way to huge games again Creighton.
In all 3 instances, Creighton refused to double-team on most possessions and the big men ate. So how will they deal with a big that is bigger than any of these guys?
DJ Burns is 6’9, 275lbs and he’s going to be a focal point for NC State in this game. If Creighton opts to play Burns straight up, history says they are going to have a long night and Burn is going to have a big game.
3. Creighton hasn’t seen guards like Joiner and Smith
Sure Creighton has quick guards. Nembhard, the 6’0 PG rarely gets a matchup where he doesn’t have a quickness advantage. Today, against Joiner, he won’t have one. There is so much talk about Creighton’s guards bottling up their opponents, but watch them play and you’ll see that they simply haven’t had to face guys like Joiner or Smith. Creighton will allow the floor to be spread and will not fight against playing this game at a fast pace, and those are the types of games we’ve seen the NC State guards feast.
Creighton is a very good team. They have some very good pieces, but I just think they’ve found themselves in a matchup that isn’t very good for them despite being data-darlings. I could be wrong, but to me, this looks like a game where people are reading off statistics and making assumptions without watching film. Without looking at each team’s Achilles heel. And without really breaking down the matchups.
I think this is a really good matchup for the Pack and I think I’ll be back talking to you in about 24 hours looking at who the guys will play on Sunday.
Sorry Joey. It didn’t happen. And while I’m at it, I am as disappointed as anyone. I have been supporting this team for 54 years. But you guys who show up on this site for the first time in recent memory and claim this team did not get better throughout the year must have been watching a different team. Give Keatts all the crap you want, but don’t diss the players who worked their butts off. Morsell and Clark were key contributors who, I admit, should have played a more active role on offense. Ebe improved greatly on both ends… Read more »
So, here’s my take. Keatts can’t coach at this level. If you watch a team get better and better thru the year, it’s coaching. This team started good then faded at the end. He had talent this year but did not make them better. UNC will get rid of their coach way before NC state will and they will get better…..NC State likes to hold on to the Sendeks way too long….
Stuff happens. Injuries have plagued us a great deal and that’s not the coach’s fault. Those injuries had a great deal of impact on this team and yet we still managed to make it into the tournament. Should Purdue, Virginia, Arizona and Pitt, look for new coaches because they got their collective a$$es handed to them by high seeds? I get it, these teams have a better track record than State, but we’ve had our fair share of sheer bad luck, from injuries, to players committing only to then declare for the NBA, along with an apparent lid placed on… Read more »
Keatts is an average coach at best. Teams have no discipline, they’re not smart and they don’t share the ball. Too much NBA, dribbling HERO ball! I don’t have high hopes for the future.
Didn’ happen for us. But I applaud the effort. Creighton’s center was just way too much for us. Wish we had Dusan and Gantt. Creighton may go really deep into this tourney.
Great season nonetheless. It was fun.
Agree Dof87. This season was a 180 from last season. They were fun to watch. Could they be a 180 from next? Maybe. But I have a feeling they will continue to trend in the right direction and that Coach Keatts will nab, once again, some really nice transfers and put together yet another fun team to watch. We’re in a new landscape here, fellas. If Coach Keatts can do what he did this year with next year’s team, I think I like our chances. I was at the game so I saw “a nosebleed perspective” of the game that… Read more »
Glad you got to make it to the game. I share your perspective. Its really hard to accomplish what NC State did this year. I know there are those that don’t appreciate that, but I think many more that do.
Tension running high. Really want Keatts to get his first NCAA win, the players deserve it , we deserve it. Will we get it?