WOLFERETTI: We got a taste of new lineup, it brought us back to within 3, and then it went away

I know Duke is tonight. I know we’re all over the SMU game. I know I should have written this Sunday, but I needed a day away from NC State basketball. I needed to cool down, so instead of pouring over the stats and ranting on in my column, I decided to go outside and play with my kids.

But my kids are back in school right now, and I’m still seething about another NC State loss. That’s a long-winded way to tell you that you’re getting my SMU rant one way or another.

NC State doesn’t have any consistent 3-point shooters, so you can look at the 4-24 from 3-point range and blame that for the loss. But really, I’m expecting poor shooting games at this point. If you’re coaching this game, and you’re banking on 3-point shooting, then that’s your first mistake. If you want to win, you have to find other ways. I think we all agree, it’s time to get creative.

One way they are doing that is by clamping down the defense. They did a great job against the ACC’s top-scoring offense. Their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number was 89.1 in this game. That’s their best defensive performance this season outside of William and Mary and Colgate (both teams that were extremely overmatched). So give them credit.

But this narrative I see building that their defense is great and their offense is the only problem isn’t really true. The offensive metrics are awful, but the defensive numbers aren’t great either. This game they were, and against North Carolina they were. But outside of that, they’ve been either decent or downright bad.

Against Cal, the AdjD was 101.4 which is decent, but against VT it was 118.4, which is very bad. Against Notre Dame, it was 100.8 which is decent, but against WF and Virginia, it was in the 119 range in both games, which is downright awful. All of that said, this defense can be good at times, but so far has been inconsistent.

What I’m getting at here, is that maybe, just maybe the NC State coaching staff has been hesitant to try new lineups because they don’t want to see a decrease in defense? I don’t know, I’m grasping and straws here. You’ve lost 6 of 7, you’re about to play Duke, in Cameron. This team is statistically eliminated from getting an at-large bid, and it’s sad because I don’t think it had to be THIS bad.

It’s not just me, either. If you follow any NC State media source, if you follow any fan community or social media feed. If you talk to any Pack fan, their beef is the same. They don’t dislike Kevin Keatts. In fact, most like him and want him to succeed. But everyone is in unison screaming about the lineups and minute distribution.

And look. It’s not like anyone blames him for starting out wondering if MOC, Hill, Jayden Taylor, Styles, and Huntley-Hatfield would be good enough to make a run this season. But I think most of us, coming off of the loss to BYU early this season, saw the writing on the wall. There needed to be a change because this team wasn’t going to win in the ACC.

Now, here we are with January almost finished, and the lineup, for the most part, is still the same. And the results, they are still the same too. The Pack is 2-6 in conference and  9-10 overall.

However, FINALLY, on Saturday, we saw a couple of lineup shifts. 

First off, he inserted Paul McNeil.

The lineup was MOC, Hill, Paul McNeil, Dennis Parker Jr, and Huntly-Hatfield and the score was 47-34, NC State was losing by 12 with 12:27.

Over the next 1:30 seconds, Paul McNeil, the freshman, the North Carolina record holder for points in a game, the kid averaging less than 4 minutes per game, got aggressive. He didn’t have a FG in this span, but he did get to the line 3 separate times and added 5 points.

NC State had a pulse. There was a spark and the crowd was, for the first time in a while, feeling a little hope.

McNeil and NC State cut the lead down to 8, at 49-41 with 10:05 left to play.

At this point, Keatts pulls Mike O’Connell after a foul and brings in Jayden Taylor.

This moves Marcus Hill to PG, Taylor to the 2, McNeil to the 3, Dennis Parker to the 4, and has BHH at the 5. 

There have been a lot of lineup ideas that have been floating around. Some want Styles at the 3 and Parker at the 4 for more athleticism. Some want Diouf at the 4 and Styles at the 3 for more height and scoring in the paint. Some want to see more of the freshmen so they can get comfortable. But in all scenarios, people have been asking to put Hill at the 1 and Taylor at the 2.

This was the first time, we’ve seen neither MOC nor Breon Pass on the floor, for an extended period. They gave Marcus Hill the reins and over the next 4 minutes, Hill scored 8 of NC State’s 10 points.

NC State was now within 3 points, 54-51, at the 5:41 mark. 

After a free throw by SMU made it 55-51 with 4:28 left to play (State down 4, after being down 13 with 11:32 left).

It was time for the final run. They had finally found some juice. Marcus Hill was amped up, bumping chest with Paul McNeil. Keatts had finally found a lineup that was clicking on all cylinders. Then, Keatts made his move…

He subbed out BHH for Ben Middlebrooks.
He subbed out Dennis Parker Jr for Dontrez Styles.
He subbed out Paul McNeil for Bryce Heard.
He subbed out Marcus Hill for Mike O’Connell.

Maybe he felt like these guys needed a breather, but with 4:28 left, do you really have time for that? Spoiler Alert: You didn’t.

Hill didn’t come back in until the 2-minute park, and he subbed in for Bryce Heard.
Parker didn’t come back in until there was  1:39 left and he subbed in for  Mike O’Connell.

But now you were down by 6 with less than 2 minutes left. The momentum you built was gone, lost subbing out almost the entire 5 guys that made the run, lit the fuse, and almost had you back in the driver’s seat of this game.

At 37 seconds, Mike O’Connell came back in for Dennis Parker Jr, and NC State’s starting 5 was back in the game.

At 16 seconds, Paul McNeil FINALLY came back in for Mike O’Connell but NC State was still down 6.

NC State ended up losing by 6.

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Just go back and look at that. Go back and watch the game. This is the type of substitution pattern that was causing NC State fans to pull out their hair. Now it’s causing them to tune out and just give up. I’m not sure what else to say.

You can blame poor shooting on the players. You can blame the lack of rebounding on the players (I guess), but NC State made a passionate, exciting run down the stretch, and with 4 minutes left, instead of letting the guys who made that run try to finish it off, they were all subbed out.

And they were subbed out for the group of guys who have been out there all season. Yes, trying their best, but with a body of work that makes it very clear that what they give you isn’t the answer.

After the game, Keatts was asked about that lineup specifically…

“Because we’re not making shots, we wanted to try to put our best defensive team in there at one point. I thought that was a very good defensive team that we had on the floor, that was able to get stops. We wanted a little bit more size, and it was a combination that played well together.

So that’s something that we’ll continue to look at.”

This confused me. We must not be watching the same team here. Paul McNeil was part of  your ‘best defensive team’? And that run was a defensive run?

I mean, during the time Paul McNeil entered, NC State scored 17 points in just 7 minutes. And during the time Hill was at PG, you scored 10 points in 4 minutes.

Sure, SMU only scored 3 points in that 7 minutes, but there have been stretches this season where NC State’s starting 5 has held teams to 3 points in 7-minute stretches, but I’m pretty sure, outside of the bunny games early in the season, NC State has rarely scored 17 points in a 7 minute span this year.

So sure, this lineup played defense well, but it also was the most offensive lineup we’ve seen all season from Kevin Keatts. Hill and Taylor are your top 2 scorers and you couple them with Paul McNeil who is a scorer by trade. These 3 guys, on the floor, give you more offensive versatility than any lineup we’ve seen all season from Keatts.

And the takeaway was that this was the defensive lineup?

I’m not sure what else to say here, other than I’m certainly watching a different game than the NC State coaching staff. However, no matter how the staff views this lineup, I guess it’s encouraging that “it’s something we’ll continue to look at.”