Analytics help NC State become defensive, putting up 2nd best defensive performance on the season vs Wake

This NC State team was supposed to be an offensive juggernaut.

The narrative heading into the season is that their defense will just need to be ‘good enough’ because their offense was that good. And honestly, the offense has been really good. In fact, in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they rank 26th nationally.

*Adjuted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) is a team’s points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for the strength of the opposing defenses faced (and venue), to estimate performance against an average Division I defense.

But as Will Wade just made clear, Darrion Williams is dealing with a shoulder injury and just had his 4th single-digit scoring game in his last 5. During this span (December), NC State’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency has dipped down to 77th.

They’ve had to adjust, and for some teams, that can be a long and sloppy process. But when you’re armed to the teeth with analytics, like NC State is, shifting on a dime is much easier.

Credit most of this to assistant GM Patrick Stacy, who formally ran an analytics company (JAM Basketball Intelligence) that worked with some of the top programs in the nation. He now uses his process solely for the Wolfpack. We profiled him earlier this season.

I actually sat down with Stacy a few weeks back to talk over their analytical approach, and man, was it impressive. They are mapping everything. They are seeing trends emerging before they fully emerge. Not trying to take a swipe here, but it’s night and day compared to the former staff.

I say all that to explain that, as NC State’s offense has dipped a tad recently, their defense has gone from mediocre to statistically elite.

During the month of December, NC State’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency is ranked 5th nationally at 89.5.

So how did this happen? Well, for one, there are the analytics being deployed.

After the Auburn game Stacy was already pointing out trends he was seeing, which pointed to Musa Sagnia shifting to the 4, pairing him with Lubin. When I heard that, honestly it wasn’t something I had considered. I felt like Breed seeing more minutes would help defensively and with offensive flow, but Musa too? Wouldn’t that cripple the offense?

Well, to figure out if it was worth it, you’d have to weigh the increase in defense to the potential decrease in offense. As you can guess, that something this staff is doing. And what was the outcome?

Musa Sagnia has now played 20+ minutes in 3 straight games. Today he played a season-high 26.

NC State beat Wake and put up their 2nd best defensive performance this season (AdjD= 79.1) That was on the heels of what is now their 3rd best defensive performance of the season vs. Ole Miss.

NC State’s roster is extremely flexible. We’ve always known that. It can play big or small with effectiveness. But pair that with analtyics and suddenly we are seeing a team change their identity on a dime.

Now, you also have a few other inputs you can’t ignore.

Will Wade had his ‘hostile takevoer’ around the same time you see this defensive shift and you have to credit Brandon Chambers who is in charge of the team defense.

It’s likely a combination of everything, but the ability to shift fast and have answers before you need them is a huge advantage. NC State has that, and it’s being showcased right now as the ‘offensive juggernaut’ is suddenly a one of the stingiest defenses out there.

As Williams gets going, the equation may shift, but it’s good to know that it’s all being tracked and considered.

At some point, the sweet spot is for NC State to tweak this balance so you have a Top-15  offense and defense at the same time, just as March rolls around.