Data says that NC State is one of the most dangerous / volatile teams in the country

Evan Miyakawa (the guy behind EvanMiya.com – one of the nation’s most trusted CBB analytics sites) just posted an insightful graphic.

TEAM CONSISTENCY

This graph shows each team’s game consistency compared to their overall team rating. The lower you are, the more your performance level stays consistent from night to night.

Arizona and UConn are consistently excellent, while Michigan is way more volatile 👇 pic.twitter.com/5bTxp1cNTB

— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) February 6, 2026

NC State sits in the dangerous but volatile territory alongside teams like Texas Tech, Nebraska, and Kentucky.

To get that readout, Miyakawa is charting game-to-game volatility against Team Predictive Efficiency rating. Here he is explaining it…

 

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But I would argue that NC State is a bit of a changed team of late. They spent the first half of the season going through these wild swings. Games where they would put up defensive efficiency outputs in the 60s or 70s and follow those up by games in the 120s.

Same on the offensive end, where there were games where State would put up offensive efficiency metrics in the low 100s , but then reel off a game of 141.

However, over the past 5 games, things have started to normalize.

Take a look at this…

Since the Clemson game, NC State has kept its offensive efficiency between 120 and 147. While they’ve stayed mostly steady on defense as well, staying between 96 and 105.

It took Wade a while to dial in his rotation, and it took Copeland and Williams a minute to settle into their new roles.

But since both have happened, NC State looks like a much steadier team.

UPDATE: Nevermind, NC State just took a 40+ loss to Louisville after that 6-game winning streak. They are confirmed to be dangerous yet volatile.