NC State Wolfpack VS North Carolina Tar Heels
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC
TV: ESPN
Will Wade gets his first taste of the UNC rivalry, as NC State takes on the No. 16 North Carolina Tar Heels, in a pivotal matchup tonight at the Lenovo Center.UNC enters at 20-5 overall and 8-4 in conference play, coming off a solid 79-65 win over Pittsburgh (without Wilson or Veesaar). The Tar Heels have been strong but inconsistent on the road (3-4 away this season) and will be facing a desperate NC State team that was embarressed on the road at Louisville and then collapsed late in a 1 point loss to Miami.
UNC has struggled defensively in spots, particularly against perimeter-heavy teams. The Tar Heels rank well in some efficiency metrics but have vulnerabilities that NC State—fresh off a narrow loss to Miami—can exploit in this rivalry clash (espeically with Caleb Wilson out for todays game — we break those down here).
With the Wolfpack sitting at 18-8 (9-4 ACC) and fifth in the league, a win here would be huge for momentum and ACC positioning, but would also very likely lock them into an NCAA Tournament bid.
Wade’s Thoughts on North Carolina:
“North Carolina is a great team. Coach Davis has done a tremendous job with them this year. They’re huge, that’s the biggest challenge. We’re not the biggest bunch, and they’re massive on the frontline, which has been a major issue for us this season. They’ve got great personnel and really good players. Tremble is a veteran guard who’s been around a long time and very savvy. They shoot the ball well. It’ll be a massive challenge for us to match up with them.”
“They played really well. Stevenson had a career high. Those guys stepped in, did the job, and performed at a really high level. When guys go down, it gives opportunity to other guys. At a program like North Carolina, you’re going to have 10 or 11 guys deep who are very talented and very good. That’s what they have.”
Keys To the Game
- Win the perimeter — UNC has had issues defending the 3-point line at times, but NC State’s offense thrives from deep (top in ACC in 3PT%). Defensively, the Pack must contest shooters aggressively and not let UNC get going from out there. Without Wilson, they’ll need to get hot from 3 to win.
- Exploit the absence of Caleb Wilson: NC State lucks out a bit here with Wilson confirmed out for this game. The freshman star leads UNC in points, rebounds, steals, blocks, and offensive rebound rebounds. Without him, they lose their go-to guy on offense and their biggest shot maker. NC State has GOT to take advantage of this.
- Dominate the paint and rebounding battle — In rivalry games, physicality wins. NC State needs to own the boards (especially offensive rebounds) and get easy buckets inside to counter UNC’s size and transition game. With Wilson out, this becomes doable, and if Veesaar sits, NC State should be expected to win here, but with this NC State group physiciality isn’t something you should count on.
- Use the homecourt advantage — The Lenovo Center will be rocking with nearly 20,000 fans in a sold out arena. NC State needs to use that momentum to their favor. Too often, they get complacent when they get a lead. Tonight they need to show they can put nails in coffins.
- Force UNC into inefficiency — The Tar Heels can score, but have road struggles. NC State should push the pace selectively, force turnovers, and capitalize on fast breaks to wear them down.
Players to Watch
- Ven-Allen Lubin – Lubin is going to be key in this game. With Wilson out, and Veesaar either out or slowed by injury, Lubin needs to come ready to dominate his former team. NC State needs to shut off UNC on the offensive glass and win the battle of the boards if they want to secure a win. Lubin will be a huge part of that. He needs to do this while staying out of foul trouble. NC State needs the advantage inside with UNC’s bruised and battered frontcourt.
- Quadir Copeland – Copeland needs to show up big in this game. UNC is going to drop on him and allow him to shoot the 3. But he can’t take the bait. He needs to stay focused and follow the game plan. NC State is best when Copeland is creating havoc in the lane and finding shooters on the perimeter. If Q can bottle up his emotions and be a steady hand. NC State wins this game.
- For North Carolina: Veesaar suiting up – Carolina needs their senior center Henri Veesaar to suit up. He’s listed as questionable, but ff he isn’t playing, NC State will have a big advantage on the glass, and also it will be open season around the rim. Copeland will thrive without a true rim protector in the middle
By The Numbers
We broke down the metrics and showed you what the matchup looks like without Caleb Wilson on the court.
Game Notes
– NC State fell to Miami, 77-76, on Saturday afternoon as the Hurricanes ended the game on a 9-0 run. The game between the two teams featured 19 lead changes and 14 ties.
– Ven-Allen Lubin tied for the team lead in scoring with 17 points on 7-of-9 shooting while also pulling down a team-high nine rebounds and tying his career-high with four blocks. In the last two games, Lubin is averaging 18.5 points per game and shooting 73.7 percent (14-of-19) from the field. Lubin has now shot over 50 percent in every game except for one this season. The Orlando, Fla., native leads the ACC and ranks third in the NCAA in field goal percentage at 68.4 percent. In his fourth season of college basketball, Lubin is averaging a career-best 13.7 points per game and his rebounding average of 7.1 per game is also the best of his career.
– Quadir Copeland had 11 points and five assists against Miami. Copeland leads the ACC and ranks 11th in the NCAA in assists per game (6.8 per game), but his eight assists in the last two games tie for his lowest assist output in consecutive games this season. Copeland has a 2.57 assist-to-turnover ratio this season which ranks sixth in the ACC and is currently the 10th-best single season assist-to-turnover ratio in program history.
– Copeland was named ACC Player of the Week last Monday after two stellar performances in NC State wins the week prior. In an 84-83 win at SMU, he had a career-high 16 assists with zero turnover and also had a season-high 10 rebounds. The 16 assists tie for the fourth-most in a single game in program history. Copeland is the first Division I player to log 16 assists and zero turnovers since 2019 and the first ACC player to have 16 assists and zero turnovers since 1997. Copeland set the program record for most assists without a turnover. (previous 15 ast/0 turnovers by Ishua Benjamin on 12/18/97).
– NC State has made double-digit three-pointers in 12 of 26 games this season. The Pack has had two games with 19 made three-pointers, a game with 17 made threes and three games with 16. The 1986-87 season was when the three-point line was introduced to college basketball. From the 1986-87 season through the 2024-25 season, NC State made 16 or more three-pointers in a game six times in 39 seasons. The current NC State team has made 16 or more three-pointers in six of 26 games this season. The Pack currently ranks second in the ACC and 11th in the NCAA with an average of 10.6 three-pointers made per game. NC State leads the ACC and ranks ninth in the NCAA in three point percentage, making 39.4 percent of its attempts from long range this season.
