NC State takes on # 2 Arizona tonight at 7pm in the ‘Battle 4 Atlantis’. This is a very tough matchup for the Wolfpack and on paper, there aren’t many areas that the Wolfpack are flat out better than the Wildcats. That means NC State needs to execute at an extremely high level and really focus in on these keys:

Speed the game up
This morning we noted in our ‘By the (advance) Numbers’ column that one of the only true advantages the Pack has on paper is that they play really well at a fast pace. Not only does it help them create turnovers in the press, but they are able to limit committed turnovers at that pace as well (which is a testament to Markell Johnson). Usually playing high possession, run and gun basketball comes with a high rate of turnovers. Right now, however, the Pack sits as the 11th best team nationally in terms of lowest offensive TO%.

Meanwhile, Arizona is sitting at 218th in adjusted tempo (NC state is 49th). Arizona isn’t an uptempo team. They like to play in the half court and play inside-out with their 7 footers. If NC State gets into that game or allows Arizona to dictate pace at all, this one is over. But if (big if) NC State can come out and force Arizona into quick shots and short possessions, then the Pack has a real shot tonight.

Get Abu back on the floor
We hit on this a bit with our recent piece on ‘how State matches up against Arizona’s frontcourt‘, but we’ll reemphasize. Abu has been practicing and taking part in walk-throughs down in the Bahamas, but there is no real word yet if he’ll play. Our guess early on was that they won’t rush him back, but at 4-0 with him now practicing, I think we see him.

Abu is big in this game because Arizona has two 7 footers who they like to feature. Sure, State has Yurtseven and Freeman, but Yurtseven has been extremely foul prone and while Freeman has been putting up career games, he’s been doing it against guys his size. He is going to struggle offensively against this type of size.

Abu gives you another body, but he also gives you extreme athleticism on the blocks, something the Pack has really been missing. His ability to defend a little on the wing will help with Deandre Ayton. He will also be able to give Keatts the option of going with 2 bigs, without allowing Atyon to just camp in the middle. Abu’s ability to knock down the 15 footer could be important in making sure the lane is clear for guys like Freeman and Dorn.

Calling all shooters
NC State isn’t going to win by feeding Lennard Freeman in the post. They aren’t going to win by relying on Dorn to get to the basket and score. This is how the Wolfpack has made a living over the past two games and tonight it’s just not happening.

They are going to need shooters to get hot. That means Al Freeman, Sam Hunt, Braxton Beverly, and even Markell Johnson are going to have to be on. State is only shooting 26.4% from 3pt range. That’s bad, but do note that they played 4 games in 7 days and the first thing to go when you’re tired is your shot.

The ability to hit a few from long distance early on is huge. They need to show Arizona that they can’t pack it down in the lane with their twin towers. A couple early 3s and suddenly the lane may open up, or Arizona may be forced to go with a smaller lineup, something that would end up playing into State’s favor.

Stop (or at least slow down) Allonzo Trier
According to KenPom.com, Allonzo Trier is the best player in the nation right now. He has 90 points in 3 games, is shooting nearly 60% from 3 and 70% from the floor. He also has an offensive rating of 150.9, which ranks #1 for all high-usage (28% of possessions or more) players. This shows that not only is Arizona running their offense through him, but he’s also capitalizing on almost everything he’s trying to do.

We went deep into just who Allonzo Trier is and how NC State can (try to) stop him earlier in the week, but we’ll say it again. If he gets off then it’s going to be a long night. He has no weaknesses besides the fact that he is a little slow to get his shot up. Dorn will likely draw the assignment unless Keatts changes things up and try to pester him with Markell or Batts.

This is an early look at how Keatts will try to guard elite scorers. Gottfried kind of just played them straight up and had zero success. Keatts is likely to be a little more creative, but we’ll have to wait and see.