NC State has only 2 games left before ACC play begins and it still feels like this team has a ways to go before they fully arrive.

Don’t blame Kevin Keatts. He’s in his first season in a year that was supposed to be about rebuilding. Instead, the Pack knocked off #2 Arizona and got expectations on the uptick.

They are also dealing with a roster that is constantly in flux.  First, you had the late addition of Braxton Beverly after the NCAA changed their eligibility ruling. Then, you had Darius Hicks go down with an ACL tear. The addition of Malik Abu, who is just returning from a knee injury himself complicated things and now Markell Johnson has been suspended indefinitely.

Building chemistry will be a process, but the faster Keatts can figure out his lineups and substitution patterns, the faster these guys can settle into their roles and get comfortable with their responsibilities.

So what SHOULD Keatts’ lineup look like?  And what roles should these guys have? To get a better understanding, we went player by player and dove deep into the statistics. Here is what we found:

Al Freeman
15 points, 5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 3.2 turnovers, 35.5 mins per game (36% FG, 25% 3pt)

Deep Stats: 
Freeman is playing 88.2% of NC State’s minutes (58th in the nation). His usage rate is 24.2, meaning almost of quarter of NC State’s possessions end in him making a shot, missing a shot, getting fouled or committing a turnover. His ‘Fouls Committed’ per 40mins is only 2.3 and he’s drawing over 5 fouls per game, which is great. His FT rate is 46.2 (272 in the nation), meaning he is getting to the line on a lot of his attempts.

Takeaways: 
NC State needs Al Freeman. He is probably their most talented player, however, they may need just a slightly tweaked effort from him. He is getting a ton of minutes and taking a ton of shots. On one hand, he’s shooting 43% from inside the arc. Pretty good when you couple that with the fact that he’s getting to the line a lot and knocking down 75% of his FTs.

On the other hand? … He’s shot 57 3s (most on the team) already this season and he’s hitting only 25% of those. A lot of those 3s have been early in the shot clock and with a hand in his face. Some team needs their top player to take those risks, but not NC State. Later in this piece, you will see just how efficient a few other guys have been, and how by trading some of those semi-contested 3s with a better shot from a more efficient player, the Wolfpack could make gigantic strides in their offensive efficiency.

Torin Dorn
13.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.8 turnovers, 28.4 minutes (56.2% FG, 34.8% 3pt)

Deep Stats:
Dorn plays about 71% of NC State’s minutes. He’s got a usage rate of  21.6. He is shooting 66% from inside the arc (225 in the nation) and 2nd on the Wolfpack in 3pt% (of those who have attempted over 20 3’s) at 35%.  His offensive rebounding % is 12.4 (101 in the nation). He’s committing 3.6 fouls per game and drawing 3.9 per game. His FT rate is second worst on the team at 34.4.

Takeaways:
Overall, Dorns’ numbers look good. His minutes and usage rate look warranted. He is shooting a good percentage, he’s rebounding the basketball at an outstanding rate for his size. The only area Dorn is lacking? His FT rate is really bad for someone with these corresponding stats. The majority of his shots come in the paint, he’s grabbing a lot of offensive boards, meaning he’s in position to get fouled and get to the line. The problem is, that’s not happening. To be honest, we think Dorn attacks the basket well, but he just doesn’t get calls. He suffers a lot of body contact, but very rarely draws that whistle. What’s the answer? Well, some work on initiating contact on drives would be a start (ie. Al Freeman), or taking a few acting classes from the guys over at Duke could be beneficial.

Lennard Freeman
12.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.2 blocks 21.7 minutes (74% FG)

Deep Stats:
Freeman is playing 54% of NC State’s minutes and has a 17.8 usage rate. He’s shooting 74% (25th in the nation) and has a 68.1 FT rate (60th in the nation). His offensive efficiency rating is 147.5 (#1 in the Power 5). He has a 9.2 offensive rebounding % (303 in the nation) and a 17.7 defensive rebounding % (2nd best on the team for qualifying players).

Takeaways:
So, Freeman’s numbers are elite. They are by far the best and most efficient on the team. His usage rate of 17.8 is too low for a guy converting 74% of the time, getting to the line a ton (FT rate of 68.1) and knocking down almost 80% of his free throws. His minutes are too low as he’s only logging 21.7 per game. Sure, he isn’t the type of guy who really helps you in the press, or someone who is great at playing uptempo, but these are the type of numbers you build around. NC State would be wise to force feed Freeman until someone proves they can stop him.

Omer Yurtseven:
11.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, 19.5 minutes (65% FG)

Deep Stats: 
Yurt plays about 49% of NC State’s minutes. His usage rate is 2nd on the team at 23.6. His offensive efficiency rating is 123.8 (183rd in the nation). He is shooting 63% from the floor (206 in the nation) and 86% from 3pt range (6-7). His offensive rebounding % is 21st in the nation at 16.4. His defensive rebounding % is 19.1 (which is best on the team of those who qualify). Also, Yurt’s block % is 8.8 (60th best in the nation). His fouls committed per 40 mins is 6 and his fouls drawn is 4.7 per game. His FT rate is 39.0 which is second worst on the team. His defensive box +/- leads the team at +2.6.

Takeaways:
Yurtseven also is putting up elite numbers on both sides of the ball. He’s the Pack’s 2nd most efficient player offensively and he’s their best rebounder. He’s knocked down 6-7 3pointers and has shown a great face-up game and an improved back to the basket game. He’s also patrolling the paint and blocking a lot of shots. In fact, according the numbers, he’s NC State most valuable defender. So why is he only playing 49% of their minutes? I know the coaching staff has said it’s about matchups, but at what point do you just put your best players on the court regardless of who you’re playing?

Braxton Beverly
9.8 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, .9 TOs (34.6% FG, 35% 3pt)

Deep Stats
Beverly is playing 57.8% of NC State’s minutes (3rd most on the team). He has an offensive rating of 115 which is good for 4th best on the team. His usage rate is 17.4. His Assist Rate is 21.3 (363rd nationally) and his TO rate is 9.9, which is 130th best in the nation. He is NC State’s best FT shooter at 81%, but his FT rate is 2nd worst on the team at 28.2. His defensive box +/- is at -1.

Takeaways:
Beverly is going to be logging a ton of minutes with Markell Johnson out, so it’s good to see that his high assist rate coupling with his low TO rate. Those two together are why he’s the top dog in the ACC when it comes to Assist-to-Turnover ratio. When he’s in, he’s taking about the right amount of shots. He’s the team’s 3rd best 3 point shooter and he’s still just a freshman. The really only negative we’re seeing from Beverly is his defense. He’s playing hard and smart, but due to his size he’s putting up a defensive box +/- of -1, which is a team worst.

Sam Hunt
5.7 points, 1.3 rebounds, 20.9 minutes (33% FG, 33% 3pt)

Deep Stats:
Hunt is logging 52.3 % of NC State’s minutes. Has a usage rate of 11% (lowest on the team) and has a TO rate of 8.3 (best of NC State guards).  He is shooting 33% from the field, but has the lowest FT rate on the team at 15.8 (although he is shooting 100% from the line). His defensive rebounding rate is 5.8 (which is lowest on the team). His defensive box +/- is  -0.5.

Takeaways:
Hunt is playing more minutes than Omer Yurtseven and only 2 less than Lennard Freeman. I know the Pack needs shooters and I know Hunt is known as one, but he’s only shooting 33% from 3pt range. The tradeoffs here are kind of crazy. With Markell Johnson out and Abu back, NC State is going to need to go a little bigger at the expense of Hunt. Not really sure how to say this, but at this point, the stats are showing that it’s tough to justify the number of minutes he’s getting with the stats he provides.  NC State doesn’t have many options at the guard position right now, which is why Hunt is seeing so much time, but something has to give, because he’s not proving NC State with much offensively, but he’s also one of two Pack players in the negatives in the defensive box +/- (the other being Beverly).

—–

Note: Abu is not listed bc of his lack of qualifying stats and Markell is not listed because of his suspension.

Note: Defensive Box +/- is “A box score estimate of the defensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player translateded to an average team.”