ESPNs BPI Predictor has NC State finishing above UNC in the ACC standings

There’s only a week left in the season, but there is still a lot that can happen to alter the ACC standings.

NC State is riding a 4 game win streak and has gone from ‘kind of a bubble team’ to pretty much a sure bet to be in the field of 64 at this point. That stretch has also seen them create separation in the conference standings. However, with one week left in conference play, there are so many different scenarios on how the final standings will play out.

We decided to use ESPN’s BPI Predictor to see how they predict it playing out and what that would mean for NC State. Here is what it predicted.

NC State
Win @ Georgia Tech ( 67% chance)
Win vs. Louisville (58% chance)

Duke 
Win @ Virginia Tech (74% chance)
Win vs. UNC (77% chance)

UNC
Win vs. Miami (85% chance)
Loss @ Duke (77% chance)

Clemson
Win vs Florida State (74% chance)
Loss @ Syracuse (47.6% chance)

Obviously, this is just some tool used to compile stats and create a projection, so it is what it is, but we’re going to use it as a hypothetical to attempt to explain what is possible and how the tie-breakers would work.

If the ESPN BPI Projector is correct, then the ACC standing would look like this:

• 1st Place: Virginia  (already clinched)
• 2nd Place: Duke  (14-4)
• 3rd Place: NC State  (12-6)
• 4th Place: UNC  (12-6)
• 5th Place: Clemson  (11-7)

Why is NC State in 3rd place, above UNC, if they have the same record?
Realize, that in this scenario, according to the ESPN BPI Projector, UNC would have lost to Duke this coming Saturday. That means UNC would have a season series record of 1-1 vs. the Blue Devils. NC State, on the other hand, is 1-0 vs. Duke in their season series.

Based on the current ACC tie-breaker rules, when two teams are tied, they break that tie by defaulting to ‘record vs. the league’s top teams.’

So, they would look at both team’s record vs. 1st place Virginia. Both UNC and NC State are 0-1 vs the Cavs. So that is a draw.

Next, they would look at the 2nd place team. In this scenario it is Duke. UNC would be 1-1 vs Duke and NC State is 1-0.

Since UNC played Duke twice and NC State played Duke only once, they use Winning % to break the tie. UNC has a 50% winning percentage, but NC State has a 100% winning percentage. Advantage, Wolfpack.

So, if things were to play out this way, the Pack would finish 3rd in the ACC and obviously get the 3-seed in the ACC Tournament. Pretty crazy, huh?

So what happens if the ESPN BPI projector is wrong and NC State ends up tied with Clemson at the end of the season?
You’re probably wondering why we are even including Clemson at all in the breakdown. Well, according to the odds, that would be the next most likely scenario to play out. Meaning both NC State and Clemson win out, or both go 1-1 in the coming week.

In that situation, NC State would also win the tie-breaker as long as Duke or UNC hold the #2 spot in the conference (which in this situation where Clemson and NC State are tied, would be likely). This is because both Clemson and NC State lost to Virginia, and both Clemson and NC State are 1-1 vs UNC this season, however, NC State beat Duke in their only meeting while Clemson lost to Duke in theirs.

So as you can see, it’s complicated, but NC State’s wins over Duke and UNC loom large in the tie-breaker scenarios. Right now, NC State: the basketball team, needs to just focus on beating Georgia Tech and taking care of their own business, but these hypotheticals are good to look at for fans interested in watching the games this week and trying to figure out who to root for.

The only reason we did this exercise was to explain the tie-breaker rules in the ACC and show that there is a very real chance that State could finish 3rd in the ACC, ahead of the Tar Heels.