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BY THE NUMBERS: Davidson’s offense ranks near the top, but these stats may be deceptive

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3 years ago

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They say that you can predict who is going to win a basketball game by focusing on the ‘Four Factors’ — shooting (effective field goal percentage), rebounding (offensive and defensive rebounding rates), turnovers (turnover rate), and getting to the free-throw line (free throw rate) — and generates how many points a team scores, and gives up, per 100 possessions.

We wanted to put this to the test and see where NC State and Davidson rank when put up against each other. Take a look.

Offensive Four Factors

Effective FG%
NC State – 52.7% (63rd)
Davidson – 55.5% (17th) •

Off Rebound%
NC State – 29.9% (107th) •
Davidson – 28.3% (157th)

FTA/FGA
NC State – 32.1 (161st) •
Davidson – 27.1 (283rd)

Turnover%
NC State – 18.6% (158th)
Davidson – 17.3% (88th) •


Defensive Four Factors

Effective FG%
NC State – 51.5% (232nd)
Davidson – 49.3% (136th) •

Off Rebound%
NC State – 32.6% (321st)
Davidson – 22.2% (12th) •

FTA/FGA
NC State – 29.3 (118th)
Davidson – 28.9 (111th) •

Turnover%
NC State – 22% (37th) •
Davidson – 16.2% (315th)

Now you’re probably wondering why it looks like the numbers are saying that Davidson is going to run away with this game, however, there is some deception going on.

When we break down these numbers in the regular season, you are comparing apples to apples. NC State and their opponents are playing the same level of talent night in and night out. That isn’t the case here.

The numbers you are seeing from NC State are with them going up against ACC-level talent on a nightly basis. Meanwhile, Davidson is playing in the A-10. But how much will that affect anything?

We think it will have a big effect.

There is no doubt that Davidson is one of the best offensive teams in the nation when you look at statistics, but when you watch them on film, you see a team that is big, poised, and can shoot it. However, they aren’t very athletic, and they seem to be susceptible to longer teams that apply pressure (ala NC State).  That, however, is for another article. This is the numbers article and when you look at them side by side, it looks like Davidson has the advantage.

The Wildcats are very efficient. They are very patient and they don’t turn the ball over. They have shooters at every spot and they work hard to get them open looks. On defense they do a great job of limiting second-chance points, however, they are not going to turn you over. I know this might sound weird, but Davidson is the team you get if you mixed Notre Dame and Virginia together.

With all of that said, it’s hard to use these numbers as much of an indicator of what will happen on Thursday. They are teams that have played very different competitions all year long. Davidson has spent the entire year being the biggest team on the court, however, against NC State, that won’t be the case.

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Afterglow
Afterglow
3 years ago

I never like playing Davidson.

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NC State Basketball

NC State Forward Katie Peneueta Enters the Transfer Portal

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3 hours ago

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April 17, 2024

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NC State Forward Katie Peneueta is entering the Transfer Portal.

Peneueta transferred to NC State last offseason from Sacramento State, where she averaged 8.4 points, shooting 45.5% from three.

In her one year at NC State, Peneueta only played 8 games for the Wolfpack, battling injuries throughout the year. Peneueta has 1 year of eligibility.

With Peneueta entering the Portal, NC State now has 3 scholarships available heading into the 2024-25 season.

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NC State Basketball

Boston Center Caitlin Weimar is on an Official Visit to NC State

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8 hours ago

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April 17, 2024

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Boston Transfer Center Caitlin Weimar (6’4″) is currently on an Official Visit to NC State.

Weimar is the reigning Patriot League Player of the Year, and has been named Defensive Player of the Year the past two years. She has earned 1st Team Patriot League Honors the past two seasons.

This year, Weimar averaged 18.7 points, 10.6 rebounds and 2.8 blocks. As a Junior, she averaged 15.5 points and 10.0 rebounds. She shot 55.5% this year, and 59.7% last year.

With NC State not having River Baldwin at Center next year, adding Weimar is an extremely exciting possibility.

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NC State Basketball

What did an ACC Title & Final Four Mean to NC State Legend TJ Warren?

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11 hours ago

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April 17, 2024

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What did an ACC Title & Final Four mean to NC State Legend TJ Warren? I caught up with the man who won the ACC Player of the Year Award in 2014 to get his take.

What was it like for you watching NC State go from the #10 seed in the ACC Tournament, to winning the Championship, to going to the Final Four?

I’m a second generation Wolfpack basketball player. Wolf blood runs through my veins, so to be able to witness a ride like that was truly amazing.

What did this run say about Kevin Keatts and these players? In what ways did you see them adapt, change or persevere?

I think that is speaks to the heart that the players have. As a 10th seed in the ACC tournament, it’s easy to pack it in and look towards the offseason, but they did the opposite. They bonded together over adversity and that’s what made them so endearing. Hard work in the face of adversity, that’s something that Wolfpack fans can relate to.

As one of the best players to ever wear the Red & White, what did this run mean to you personally?

As I mentioned earlier, NCSU hoops has been in my family for a long time, so it meant a whole lot personally. This run definitely took me back to some of the fond memories I have of putting on the Red & White and playing in front of a packed house at the PNC.

What was the most memorable moment for you?

I think Mike’s shot to tie the game at the end of regulation. It just felt like destiny at that point. Anytime you get to beat UNC and Duke days apart is special too.

How do you think this run can change things for the NC State Basketball program going forward?

I think that it puts us back on the national radar where we belong. After a magical run like that, I think it makes players want to be a part of that. A run like that reinvigorates a program definitely.

_______

Warren is 1 of only 6 NC State players to ever be named the ACC Player of the Year. In his Sophomore season, Warren was named a 2nd Team All-American by Sporting News and the AP. He averaged 24.9 points per game, which is the 5th best mark in a single season in NC State history. Warren scored 871 points that year, which is the most points ever scored in a single season by a Wolfpack player.

TJ was selected by the Phoenix Suns with the 14th overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft.

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NC State Basketball

NC State Forward Ernest Ross Enters the Transfer Portal

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1 day ago

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April 16, 2024

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NC State Forward Ernest Ross announced today that he is entering the Transfer Portal.

 

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A post shared by Eway♻️🏂 (@thebiggesteworld3)

Ross played in 14 games this year, averaging 3.4 minutes per contest. After playing in 34 games last season, averaging 11.4 minutes per contest, Ross saw his participation dip to a career low this season, but that didn’t for a second break his infectious personality. On the sideline, you could count on Ross every single game to be the heart and soul of the Wolfpack on the bench. To watch a player who played as little as he did, care as much as he did, makes me super proud that this young man represented NC State so well.

Ross was a consensus 4-star player in the 2021 recruiting class, with 247Sports ranking him as the #60 overall player nationally. ESPN ranked him as the #5 overall player in the state of Florida.

Ross has one more year of eligibility remaining.

NC State has 3 scholarships available now.

Best of luck Ernest!

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